weatherwiz

I highly doubt they're ready for what could be upwards of 2 feet of snow in eastern ND. Just b/c the population density isn't as high as out this way doesn't mean its any less impactful to humanity...temperatures below-freezing, high winds, low wind chills...thankfully this is the weekend, but I doubt they are fully prepared for winter weather yet...let alone 2 feet of snow.

If there's sports talk there can be ND blizzard talk. This is an ALL OUT BLIZZARD! This is some odd station...D55 or something (not sure what these stations means) BUT HOLY ****

goin gto be more eastern or northeastern ND it seems like

Now we're talking!

I could see winds gusting 25-35 mph inland overnight Thursday. As the high pressure up north seems to lift out we do establish a greater pressure gradient over the region.

It should eventually (and probably quickly) occluded and weaken. Not sure how large the window is for a long-duration rain event...I'm not even sure this is a region-wide widespread rain event. We could easily be affected more by bands of heavy rain traversing through which would yield a fun looking rainfall map. Looks like occlusion sort of happens late Thursday. Another factor too is that HP to the north...flow around the high and off-shore low is one that could keep some drier air draining down at times so how close that low comes will be extremely, extremely critical to rain totals and intensity of the rain. Based on current positioning on the models it may be a tad difficult to get higher totals outside of SE MA, RI...maybe SE CT. Going to be some type of crazy cut-off somewhere.

I wonder if they get a tropopause fold under the main s/w in the mid-west Friday. Look at how low the tropopause is...that's sick for October

Some pretty impressive frontogenesis on the NAM develops and pushes through southern New England along with some good VV's. Looks like several few intense bands of torrential downpours and associated gusty winds.

The most interesting aspect is the dynamic cooling advertised on the NAM

This Inter-mountain West/northern Plains snow storm is a million times more exciting than some fluttering low off the coast that might produce periods of heavy rain and gusty winds and maybe a few dead trees down on the Cape

wow...that's pretty nuts. I didn't pay much attention to the weather for here today, but based on the fact a front was approaching there was a bit more sun than I would have anticipated...stronger mixing?

wind

But this early in October though? Seems quite early...even for them.

drifts could be like 4-5' I bet...if these scenarios play out of course. I think there will be at least a strip of prolific totals.

eastern ND could get destroyed. Someone is going to get 3+ feet. This is going to be BS if all these places are getting historic snow this month and we just dodge rain drops and bird poop from geese flying south

Bingo!! Was thinking the exact same thing. Throw in that warm moist air wrapping into the cold sector and BOOM. Having this thing close off to at H5...everything is aligning for some monster totals somewhere.

The 12z Euro CRUSHES eastern ND and NW MN...holy crap. This is wild. Why can't we get something like this now...that would be awesome.

Take a look at this sounding. This is going to be quite historic across some of these areas. Snowfall rates could approach like 4-5''/HR if these signals hold true...and for a good several hours perhaps.

I wonder if a large part has to do with the sub-tropical central/northern Pacific and state of the GoA. Exceptionally warm waters in that region and that may be helping to enhance ridging...ridges seem to amplify in that general vicinity and the response is amplification troughs across the west. Maybe also influenced by East Asian Mountain torque...though I don't fully understand that stuff. Anyways though if we keep seeing these super intense systems and high Rossby wave activity I would think Rossby waves of this magnitude are connecting with the stratosphere so this could help to weaken the stratospheric polar vortex as it strengthens moving into the winter...then it's just a matter of weakening the TPV which I think there are some signals which favor this potential. I really wouldn't worry about what's happening right now though...we're really only entering the transition period and plenty of factors can influence things in about 6-10 weeks.

BJI!!!!

ughhh I want to go to NW MN Friday. I can't believe the totals the GFS/euro are dropping...they are going bonkers with that deform band. This sounding is FILTHY!!!

The GFS has been playing peek-a-boo the last several days with tropical development in the Gulf or Caribbean > 240 hrs out

Here's something we can all believe in

also b/c we live on Earth and there are always traces of moisture in the atmosphere

also shows 32 J of CAPE!!!!