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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Past few HRRR runs amping up. Lift her up Dorothy
  2. weatherwiz
    Not sure how much longer that will hang around (models had it until like 19z) but if we can get those lower 70's dews under that...hello 2500 MLCAPE
  3. weatherwiz
    I took my usual 3 minute walk to the gas station during lunch in Branford...when I came outside I noticed an uptick in humidity....although it could also be going from the freaking ice box the gas station was to the much warmer outdoors
  4. weatherwiz
    TORNADO WATCH MAY BE COMING!!!!!!!!!
  5. weatherwiz
    Giving it another hour for that warm front to make progress
  6. weatherwiz
    I think it would help in certain situations
  7. weatherwiz
    I am so torn on BDL or towards Danbury...the HRRR really targets more towards BDL. In these setups I've also gotten burned too many times by not going closer to where the warm front will be...which of course I guess if the HRRR is too far north with that than it is with storms. I'm also wondering if this sfc heating can help drive wf a bit?
  8. weatherwiz
    ahhh but you do bring up a great point and that's actually a damn good question.
  9. weatherwiz
    I've never been good with drawings part of the reason why Calc III was a disaster for me
  10. weatherwiz
  11. weatherwiz
    the 850 warm front is certainly farther north but the sfc warm front hasn't made much progress.
  12. weatherwiz
    Well given the CAMS and short-term guidance I think we will definitely see some activity later...if we are able to generate the instability numbers which have been tossed around by some guidance it will be a big day. Judging satellite and upstream obs at least western CT to Hartford should destabilize quite well. Let's see if we can pool those lower 70's Td's in
  13. weatherwiz
    This is a bit uneasy later...especially with forecast of MLCAPE pushing 1500
  14. weatherwiz
    TODAY IS A DAY WHY THEY NEED TO BALLOON LAUNCHES FROM BDL...AT LEAST DURING SPECIAL EVENTS.
  15. weatherwiz
    The NAM does look a bit more impressive...the 3KM NAM has been super consistent too
  16. weatherwiz
    Another big key for SW CT will be that plume of steep lapse rates
  17. weatherwiz
    The HRRR does seem to always be a bit aggressive with pushing warm fronts through. Just based on low track alone I can't see it getting that far north...but doesn't mean severe wx potential doesn't exist that far north
  18. weatherwiz
    no change to the SPC outlook...a bit shocking. Sun poking here in Branford.
  19. weatherwiz
    hmmm outside of shear OKX sounding is not impressive at all
  20. weatherwiz
    nasty looking cell southeast of Syracuse. There's your elevated supercell and what is indicative even just along/north of WF EDIT: actually may not be that elevated
  21. weatherwiz
    SW CT very much in the game. The warm front looks to even be making progress. And even just on the north side of the front you have to watch for elevated supercells with large hail potential. The instability/thermal gradient with this front needs to be kept in mind.
  22. weatherwiz
    where the warm front moves through skies should clear relatively quickly. On satellite you basically go from startacrap to naked sun bathing within the span of someones yard
  23. weatherwiz
    It's due to track of sf low. But the warm front should get into CT...probably not through whole state. The greatest question just seems to be destabilization...HRRR doesn't want to generate all that much...nor other models. Maybe clouds too much of a problem but with those steeper lapse rates nearby and high dews won't take much heating to crank instability.
  24. weatherwiz
    bufkit soundings not nearly as unstable cross Waterbury, CT (from all models) as they were yesterday but this is pretty impressive to see from the HREF
  25. weatherwiz
    Today is just going to be a question of instability I think. I do think we'll get the warm front into CT and probably very close to Hartford. We're talking about effective bulk shear values approaching 60 knots with effective helicity values of 300 m2s2...if we push MLCAPE ~2,000+ J/KG (which is possible) there is going to be some big time trouble today.
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