weatherwiz

I remember that event...was huge national news headlines. That was some summer too for severe weather from the northern Plains through the upper-Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Obviously we had the derecho on 7/15/95 but we had the Great Barrington F4 on 5/29 and there were other events too. That 7/15/95 derecho may be one of the more impressive ever in terms of longevity...think that originated from like MT/ND or southern Canada. In fact 1995 was a wild year for weather...the winter was nuts

I love staring out the window and fantasizing TCU's rapidly rising and gaining altitude as they ascend through the troposphere and spread out across the sky upon reaching the tropopause. Actually got to view this with the storms last week. It was clear as day out ahead of that line...which doesn't happen very often here (outside of EML's). One thing about today though is there's a quite a bit of shear currently but looks to weaken through the day. the HRRR is pretty aggressive for today. Have to watch out for a differential heating axis which may evolve

Could maybe see some room for some heavy rain next weekend. Can't rule out a wave of low pressure developing along the stalled boundary. Would be tied into any potential MCS development across the northern Plains/upper-Midwest.

I see SPC put up a marginal up this way for today. Was waiting for that. Today is certainly not a huge severe threat and not even certain about coverage of thunderstorm activity but some damaging wind gusts definitely possible.

Was sitting in my car and lunch and I could feel the humidity rising. This is what we live for

There is certainly a backdoor signal on both the GFS/Euro for mid-to-late week (somewhere in that period). It's not a very strong signal and don't think it would be a strong front but something that could result in 70's along NE coast and 80's inland as opposed to 90's. Very possible too the strong sun angle/eating ends up mixing the boundary out as it moves inland given it doesn't appear to be very strong.

This is an excellent point. This is why I am super intrigued in the period. It doesn't appear we will be dealing with a strong cap. there have also been subtle hints at some EML plumes working our way...which *makes sense* given we may be on the southern periphery of the westerlies but as I alluded too earlier...when you're dealing with plumes as opposed to large-scale EML air...it gets very dicey trying to time then with appropriate features (fronts, s/w)

Especially here...it's much better across NY/PA and then across northern New England given their closer proximity to fronts/shortwaves and the better dynamics which typically resides across southern Canada during the summer. I think northern New England is extremely underrated in terms of severe weather potential during the summer. 1) Lack of population so many events go unreported; 2) there is still sketchy radar coverage throughout the region, 3) they often get into better overlap of CAPE/dynamics. I would wager outside of PA/NY VT/NH/ME are the better spots for severe in the Northeast

the severe threat is really just secondary. All I really want is just active summer in terms of thunderstorms...thunderstorms which offer nice shelf clouds and lots of lightning. If there happens to be hail or high winds...that's just a bonus. Although internal moisture does increase when thinking and hoping for these phenomena

I do remember this as well (like in the 90's). That was a decade where it seemed we would get nasty squall lines each summer...like the type of lines that went from Maine through PA. I used to get pissed too because they would ALWAYS without fail die as soon as they got into western Connecticut. I remember people telling me we didn't get severe weather or tornadoes because of the hills and then the stuff about Long Island Sound killing storms. I always thought both those were crap. Don't get me wrong...Long Island does hinder things with sea-breeze BUT I think the overall killer with squall line setups anyways is the line of thunderstorms outrun the better upper support and forcing.

But this sucks next week will be like mid-June and really after mid-July the likelihood for widespread severe threats or potential tends to drop off. Sure we can get some nice/big events into August but they aren't as likely as earlier in the season. And forget moving to the Plains or even going chasing in the Plains...Tornado Ally has and is shifting farther East...who knows, maybe in 15-20 years it will be across the East. Everything is becoming ridiculous

I am still really liking that June 10-14 period for severe weather...maybe a setup that would yield a higher end threat too. Nothing screams EML advection but the pattern evolution could certainly throw an EML plume our way. Things get very dicey though when you're just getting plumes of EML thrown your way b/c then it's really all about timing.

The question is...how long does it last? It's a very interesting pattern moving into next weekend (globally) and with a -AAM state combined with several other factors, looks like there would be wave breaking across the western Atlantic...or you would at least expect this to occur somewhere. This could promote trough potential in the east or at least some BDCF potential.

There has to be a high end severe threat in the northern Plains with that pattern...hell maybe some big potential across like MT or WY which I don't think is very common? I think June is going to have some surprises...by surprises I mean we aren't going to see an established pattern...it will be rather chaotic...hopefully that leads to a big severe chance. I think the upper-Midwest may get slammed in that department

I'm wearing jeans currently

Certainly does look a bit intriguing around that time for something...certainly not outbreak worthy but definitely some room for localized severe. Pretty decent speed max/shortwave trough moving through. Moisture return going to be key. I'm still liking the 10-13 period for something too

That would be a really awesome idea. Actually I think if you subscribe on Pivotal can't you get euro soundings?

maybe screaming was a bit much but it's still a pretty strong flow for the time of year...30-40 knots in the lower-levels with 60-70 knots in the mid-levels...I guess more appropriate term would be deep southerly flow

The NAM actually has a triple point brief spinner potential across NE MA Monday. LCL's may be like 600-700m

Agreed and that was a great call...this has definitely moved away from a cyclogenesis aspect (for tonight)...which probably does favor the idea of a region wide soaker b/c the drivers behind the rain are now different. Starting to get quite intrigued with Sunday night/Monday though...you could argue that's an even stronger signal for torrential rain...screaming southerly flow to the tropopause with LP just to our West.

This is some pretty hefty frontogenesis across the state. 60+ knot LLJ too coming off the ATL

Actually could probably see some thunderstorms across SE RI and far SE MA on Sunday. Pretty steep lapse rates with that ulvl low that passes overhead and decent elevated CAPE

I already talked enough about the rain threat