weatherwiz

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

why is no one talking about this? Too bad we have this mank screwing it up. 

It's very isolated so most will miss out but whoever gets hit should get whacked pretty good

BDL 75°F!!!!!

15°F more to go!!!!

LEt'S DO ITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

Marginals Sat-Mon. A slight risk today, D3 and a severe for day 5. Will Wiz sleep at all this week?

with Bruins playing...nope  

Just noticed NWS has sunny skies tomorrow for BDL...looks like we could get mucked up with MCS cloud debris 

Coverage today will be isolated but what does develop...should be some good wind producers too...along with some hail with strongest cores.

Finally...we've been waiting all summer for this but the potential exists on Thursday for a widespread...perhaps severe weather outbreak with widespread damaging winds and perhaps some tornadoes all possible. This is a rather delicate setup, however, all the ingredients are there. as always with this type of potential there are numerous caveats and the extent of the potential probably won't be known until early Thursday morning. 

1) Morning MCS - there likely will be an ongoing MCS to begin the day (riding along an instability gradient). This will certainly be one feature which complicates the forecast as we would ave to deal with cloud debris and likely subsidence behind the departing MCS. Subsidence can be good as it can help clear junk out faster, however, if it is too strong it can inhibit development later on. 

2) Lack of EML/steep lapse rates. lapse rates aren't horrific, but these setups tend to have their severe weather potential (magnitude) vastly increased when there is an EML involved. With that said, combination of temperatures well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 in spots and dewpoints perhaps into the 70's with high mixing ratios should contribute to near moderate instability (again...cloud debris will be a player here too). 

3) Rather strong shortwave approaching will be accompanied by anomalously strong mid-level flow with a west-to-northwest MLJ exceeding 50-60 knots with a low-level jet exceeding 30-35 knots. One caveat here is the BEST dynamics may push off the coast before we can crank again in the afternoon. 

This should be extremely fun to track the next few days with plenty to work out. It is extremely important to keep expectations in check b/c this is by far a lock and lots have to come together...but all the ingredients are there. 

Saturday has potential to be quite active as well.

Just now, PowderBeard said:

Tip had a great post a while back on storms dying east of the river with S winds I believe.

Depending on the season south winds can be a killer b/c of marine taint but IMO I think this is more of a factor during the spring through late June. Once the waters warm I don't think it becomes as big of a factor. I've always wanted to do research on this but my thinking is that storms just tend to out run the better dynamics/upper-level support. The better dynamics/upper-level support seem to be up around the NYS/Canadian border or traverse NNE...so taking into account the curvature of the Earth, when storms just get past a certain point they just lose that assistance and fizzle...partly too b/c our instability here tends to be on the weaker side and predominately sfc parcel driven (days where we may have 2500 SBCAPE but barely 750 MLCAPE). the good SBCAPE helps get things to develop but for them to really mature the updrafts need additional assistance (good MLCAPE, dynamics, upper-level support)...and with that lacking convection struggle to get very deep.

50 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

this is important to call out .. a good number of our high end severe weather events have W / NW flow aloft 

yeah some of our biggest events come from;

1) NW flot aloft (mid-levels)...which also tend to match well with EML advection but not all NW flow events are associated with EML's

2) EML's 

3) cold pools aloft 

but our severe wx events can be maximized with the combo of a NW flow/EML 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Better chance Fri or Sat. Sell much tomorrow 

good news is we have the chances! 

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Why do west winds limit storm convergance?

 

I should actually clarify...west winds alone doesn't mean less convergence...it's more of the winds with respect to the front. Typically with cold FROPAS they do so in a more northwest to southeast fashion...so if you have like S, SW, SE winds...they're going into the front ...air is converging which means upward motion. If sfc winds are more W its kind more parallel to the front so there isn't much convergence. At least that's how I've always understood it 

looks like 18z is slowing down a tad more. still have a more W sfc wind though which will limit convergence but boy...what does develop is going to produce some good wind 

nasty storm just north of Danbury 

I would be working from home today too  

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It's morning and aftn...aftn if we get sun. Too early to say where that goes. 

My concern would be subsidence behind morning MCs

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Thursday is SW of SNE. Maybe it clips FF cty. MCS always dive SE of modeling 

There’s afternoon potential too 

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday morning could be violent. That's a nasty MCS on NAM. 

I’m smelling the D!!!! It’s a D setup!! I want the D!!!!!

44 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM has raw U40s Thu afternoon here while BDL is pushing 80F+.

Karma is a *itch hahaha 

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

What’s the limiting factor on tornado potential tomorrow?

unidirectional flow and subsequent storm mode, inverted-V soundings, high LCL's, southern New England

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM looks better tomorrow. 

Looks like some pseudo-EML air that might move overhead? I bet we see one or two microbusts with winds 65-75 mph. 

Should see some pretty nasty t'storms today across eastern CT through southeastern MA. Big lightning producers too

On 8/22/2020 at 6:31 PM, Henry's Weather said:

How often do we get highlighted in day 4 spc outlooks?

probably happens a couple times each summer. 

19 hours ago, Henry's Weather said:

Where is weatherwiz to start a thread for Tuesday?

 

I spend weekends with my girlfriend so I try not to be buried into my phone too much. Anyways...did get one started this morning but as usual everyone is going to think tomorrow is massive widespread potential and then cry bust b/c they didn't get anything...even though this setup is not widespread convection and most probably see nothing. BUT...for those that do...the storms will pack a punch 

There is also a quite a bit of dry air in the mid-levels...which will also limit widespread coverage, but increases damaging wind potential with any storms that fire. 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Timing of fropa seems in question. 

Also looks like some sort of pre-frontal trough may come through a little early? Near westerly sfc winds should limit convergence which should limit aerial coverage but I still think we'll see multiple short line segments...whatever develops will have plenty of dynamics to tap into. That's why I think we'll see widespread damage but localized/concentrated 

There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the overall potential due to the anticipated timing of the strong cold front, however, the potential exists for multiple fast-moving line segments capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps hail (especially with any splitting supercells). A fairly vigorous shortwave trough amplifies as it approaches New England with a plume of steeper lapse rates moving through aloft and a strengthening mid-level jet on order of 50-60 knots. At the surface we'll see temperatures pushing well into the 80's...perhaps near 90 depending on overall timing of the front with dewpoints well into the 60's to near 70. Combination of heat and humidity with steeper lapse rates should yield a moderately unstable atmosphere...BUT this could be limited with a faster fropa. Should timing of the front slow down we could see some pockets of widespread wind damage. Forecast soundings indicate a textbook inverted-V signature indicating increased potential for damaging winds and long/straight hodographs suggest splitting supercells/hail potential 

AHHHHH they dropped to 88