weatherwiz

Just now, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m growing weary of watching other peoples severe lol 

It's like watching the Tampa Bay Lightning win cups year after year

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LMAO at GFS Saturday.

At least it has a severe threat Friday!!!

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had also pulled up the data, but realized after that fact that I had accidently viewed 1000mb and not surface, so had to walk it back lol

I think you accidentally plotted heights as opposed to temperature anomalies. I would have thought though it would still show positive departures in the 100mb height anomaly, but that could be a result of the auto-generated legend. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Might be interesting to challenge that motif perception ( I mean it's likely real -) with that Monday maritime plumb.  It does seem ( by experience this is true, too) that it will modify off the extreme depth as the time nears, but some guidance were previous flirting with frost ..at least in Maine.. But frost or not, even getting that into the low 40s down here to Worcester definitely is a full diurnal ranged new chilly ball-game.  - if so

That is quite an unseasonably cool airmass still being projected on the models. Not taking any airmass modification into account, I think there is great validity for such potential. But before getting into that, when you look at the source region for that airmass there might not be much room for modification. 

While this airmass would certainly result in very comfortable daytime temperatures, should we achieve strong mixing (which would be likely with a steep lapse rate), we'll get to at least climo with maybe some areas a tick or two below. 

But like you said...it's the overnight period which could be of greatest interest. Given the presence of very dry air and rather low (for time of year) theta-e values, combined with some potential for strong radiative cooling....the favored cold spots could certainly plunge down into the mid-30's and even some of the major climo stations could get into the 40's. 

Should any full de-coupling occur profiles are favorable for a downward spiral from daytime high's. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was wrong. Sorry for clogging the thread.

Don't be sorry. I thought it was good discussion. For one, it's interesting to see how we perceive something to be but then you look at data and the data doesn't reflect what was perceived. 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Fair enough. I stand corrected...my bad.

For whatever reason, its seemed comfortable to me.

I think the fact that we've been above-average with low/comfortable levels of humidity certainly plays a factor too. 

The best way to really put it is we haven't seen anything totally out of the ordinary or anything anomalous. We've had some hot days and we've had some cool days. But we have not entered a constant or consistent pattern which we really shouldn't be anyways given we're in the mid-latitudes. The pattern should really only be more consistent during the dead of summer (July/August) and dead of winter (January/February). Sometimes I think it would be better to view anomalies in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just an "average". 

We've been above-average since mid-May...obviously driven moreso by warm mins, but even high's have been above-average. While we certainly have had some cool days this just goes to show that when we've had these cool days they really aren't far off from climo, but when we have the warmer days we're a good several-degrees or so above climo.

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

It's almost July dude, if we don't get going on it now it's not a good outlook for HHH for any point this summer.  Heat begets heat

Historically, most of our HHH periods come closer to mid-July. Like dendrite said, we've had some hot days...and of those few they were quite hot. It's still relatively early for such prolonged periods. Even what's happening across the Missouri Valley east to the mid-Atlantic coast is a bit early...not totally uncommon but it's quite the prolonged stretch

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In all seriousness...it's only mid-June lol. Probably up until recently (as in the past decade) have we ever really entered more consistent stretches of heat and humidity...and I'll define that as temperatures ~85 or greater with dewpoints > 65. Obviously these thresholds need to be adjusted for location (proximity to water, elevation, latitude). It really used to be like first few weeks of July for the big heat and then we would really crank dewpoints (>70) more like later part of July and August. 

84-mph at ORD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Did the observer at ORD take cover????? Waiting for a METAR update

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I should be out there  

Maybe we can get some solid elevated convection Thursday night. 

I was getting all tingly looking at mesoanalysis in the OV but now I'm depressed 

Forecast supercell composite parameter later    

Too bad they capped

KCVG dewpoint hit 80! Wish we could get that 

191-days until cutter and rain season returns 

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

awfully far north still completely misses SNE, by a good margin

unfortunately no fun for us with this one and looks like we get screwed with timing at the end of the week. sigh 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

theta-e gradient basically runs from ERI to PHL.

That's about where I was thinking the northern fringe of the complex would track but some of the models indicate this could become a pretty large complex so maybe the northern fringe does get farther north like the NAM shows. 

The NAM/GFS are awfully far north with that MCS/"derecho" for tonight/tomorrow. Although the GFS seems more realistic with where it should actually track. 

4 hours ago, kdxken said:

Wiz getting tingly:

 

 

Upper ridge

becomes suppressed by open trough moving through Great Lakes, which

is a pattern that can bring severe weather to our area, and we do

note longer range guidance from CIPS and CSU shows some low

probabilities Thu/Fri. For now, it`s something to keep in mind and

we`ll need to see how things evolve over next few days with regard

to timing and instability/shear parameters.

We can only hope. I've been trying really hard not to get too excited for anything 5+ (sometimes even 3+) days the past few years (including winter). But it's nice to see this potential still on the table from a few days ago. Going to be lots to iron out with how things evolve.

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah really?   I've been reading that everywhere.   That, and countless other species in mass diasporas due new habitats opening up to them, and/or just the collapse of nativity leading to escape/migration to survive ...many of which have been showing up here.  

Ticks with deadly pathogens transporting into regions where the local fauna have very little or no native immuno-respose.  Nile virus toting tiger mosquitoes.   Black widows now in Massachusett, Pa and Ohio...Michigan. Just to name a short few.

Wolf spiders have been around for decades. 

I think you have a borderline fear/anxiety disorder with spiders. LOL... subject comes up, you're the first in line with doom's day scenarios.  And if one shows up in your closet, we get constant siege comparisons to something out of Lord Of The Rings. 

Ever see "Arachnophobia" ?  You should watch that movie, then,  sleep naked out in a barn in a sleeping bag you never did a sleep check before you climbed into - on a dare. 

I did see that movie when I was super young…I think that’s what started my spider fear  

and speaking of spiders is this one of those ones that are supposed to fall from the sky??? 

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Anyone ever see a brown recluse in the region? Something very similar? Could have sworn I saw one the other night on my back door. Almost shit my pants. No web. Just hanging out on the lower portion of the door. Should have snapped a pic. I usually leave spiders that are outdoors as a means to kill all the other pests. But this one had me thinking it’s an exception. 

Warm basements due to oil furnaces can make for microclimates…

My uncle used to see them when he lived at a stable when taking care of horses. This is a huge part of climate change that nobody talks about…big massive spiders starting to populate the north b/c the climate is becoming conducive for them. Pretty soon wolf spiders will dominate and we’ll be seeing brown recluses everywhere along with black widows and the Australian massive spider guy. This really isn’t a good situation