weatherwiz

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah, that's not great. 

That is super scary...that much CAPE with over 400 m2s2 of helicity. Nothing good can come from that 

Waterbury, CT on the NAM 4 PM tomorrow

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

6/1/11 in eastern NY perhaps.

I honestly don't know if the probs were even that high then. maybe 45 but I can't recall seeing a 60 but who knows...memory fading  

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm not entirely surprised to see that composite go high. All guidance agrees on one thing: where the warm front settles will be a focus for severe weather. They differ a little on placement, but the evolution is quite consistent.

I think this composite overdoes things at times but I mean...the ingredients are there and like you said, where warm front settles it's probably going to be big. Also noting that 18z is kinda focusing the boundary a bit more SW...also noting that forecast soundings actually back the llvl winds a bit (and not in the good way)

I don't recall ever seeing a 60 up this way...though it may have happened with 05/15/2018. If the damaging wind signal becomes widespread I think we could see a moderate risk. 

10 minutes ago, tim123 said:

What does this map show?

probabilistic probability of a significant tornado (EF2+) based on a combination of forecast mixed-layer CAPE, mixed-layer LCL height, 0-1km helicity, and bulk shear

OH MY GOD

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's going to be hilarious when the warm front doesn't make it to NYC and we all read Wiz's diatribe about "never getting excited for severe in SNE again" post. Only for him to start a thread for Saturday.

you know me too well 

49 minutes ago, BrianW said:

East Rock Park in New Haven is a great spot. You can drive right to the top in your car. I think the elevation is 366 feet there. Awesome views. 

and that's not far from where I work! That could be perfect

Wow...15-20 foot storm surge now forecast across parts of TX/LA coast...holy ****

With these updrafts tomorrow...I want some stratosphere penetration. 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd rather be more SW. Too close for comfort. 

Debating if I want to do BDL tomorrow or go towards SW CT. Just tough to find good areas with wide open views down there. Could do Newtown...there's a few spots I know. Danbury is a no-no given the COVID spike. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It can help...I guess for me, Id'want to be near and S of the front in this one. Sometimes hail is a bigger threat N of the front if you get good elevated CAPE.  But this setup is the balls if you are in that area. 

I don't argue that...was more of just throwing out a thought more than anything. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Not with those temps..lol. This isn't like KS where you actually get CAPE just north of the WF. 

I recall somewhat of a similar setup...forget there year but it was early 2010's. I think there was an EF-2 or even EF-3 around the Albany area which occurred with a supercell on the northern fringe of the warm front and they only had temperatures in the 60's. It was a crazy gradient with temps in PA near 90 and dews around 70. I remember chasing that day with my friend and we had gone into PA. Even though the temps were rather chilly the storm was drawing inflow from the southwest where instability was large 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM went south. More like far SW CT. That's the worry. We wedge.

Might actually be a setup where you may want to be on the northern fringe of the warm front. That's where you'l not only maximize the shear but SR inflow may actually be from the warm sector so instability is  still being utilized. 

Remember like a month ago I said we'd be watching the Bruins chasing the Stanley Cup and tracking severe weather outbreak hahahahaha. 

uhhhhhhh

1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said:

For those of us with short memories, the enhanced risk used now was once the moderate risk, no?

I think it was still a slight...for moderate I think you needed 45% wind (or 30% hatched)...I think hail too but maybe it was 30% for hail and 10% for TOR. But given this is a day 2 outlook b/c the 30% wind is hatched that may have qualified for a moderate...I forget. 

7 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

Wiz get driving to Cobleskill NY now, great position to be in to drive East and chase em !!! 

I should be able to "chase" tomorrow...by chasing I mean sit at BDL (that's my goal). Or maybe go towards SW CT depending on how it looks. But I don't think I'll be going out-of-state with all the quarantine guidelines in place...although NY and MA aren't on the list but still. 

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

To pin or not to pin, that is the question.

PIN PIN PIN PIN

I am not the *biggest* fan of this product...I think it places too much emphasis on shear (especially in high shear/low CAPE setups) but values of 30-45 are pretty damn impressive for up here

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM is really interesting. Not sure I can remember such rapid WAA and rapid destabilization like it shows. 

Didn't that happen 5/31/98? 

Anyways...not sure how it translates to here but I know out west in those scenarios tend to lead to significant events...and rapid fire too. such rapid WAA an destabilization just yields such vigorous upward vertical motion...which also can be a factor with increasing SRH.

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

All three days Thursday through Saturday look troublesome or certainly could turn out that way with that front oscillating in the area ... accentuated helictites long it with unusual thermal gradient for this time of the year either side is intriguing. 
 

Seems that EOF1swarm idea had shifted more to Saturday with organized cyclone mechanics in the area but the boundary  itself could be active for a couple days before that ...wherever ultimately sets up

Let's hope we can get at least one of these days to work out. I think historically when we seem to have these multiple days of potential we typically get one to work out. 

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Best use a long term non tarmac site once summer is over and they all have reported in , that way we can see what's it like where people actually live. Bet minimums are most impressive 

I would agree with this. 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

If its over 80 each of the next 7 days at the Tarmacs

I should also add on the ORH and BOS data I posted that was looking at seasonal (Jun - Aug)...forgot about that before my post