weatherwiz

Just now, dendrite said:

So much dry heat for BDL this year. They really needed the low dews to pull the record off.

Bic Mac's 62 HR barely made it over the wall but a HR is a HR

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Eff the GFS and the phantom EMLs it has given us. 

I actually am not a huge fan of the mlvl lapse rate output from COD. It always tends to want to bring in steep lapse rates. But...there were times throughout the summer where the look seemed to favor it, but there was one or two key pieces missing. not sure what exactly but you need the airmass to sort of remain homogeneous moving through the upper-Midwest and OV and that hasn't happened. Probably mT air from the Gulf being entrained into the mid-levels.

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Paul... we've have SB CAPE over 3500 here several times this year ... just that it's hard to do anything with it when the lapse rates suck and there's no triggers. 

That said, it's a dicey to dribble those warm buttery dps up under/nearby subtly westerlies increasing along 50-55 N ..yeah

I'm almost think MCS .... We haven't had a bona fide overnight windy strober in years around here... 

At this the pattern being projected does favor the potential for some steeper lapse rates to eject our way...very fickle though. You would also think it could favor MCS activity...we are at the climo time of year where that potential (I would wager) is highest. We just have to lock in high theta-e air in the llvls while strong jet energy traverses above...and the way to do that...be atop the crest of the ridge...which looks like we will be. 

And BDL up to 89!!! 

90 day #36 about to happen. Should tie record Sunday and break Monday and add on Tuesday 

Only took until September but yellows and reds a comin'!!!!!!!!!!!!  It's like an English Premiere League soccer football (don't want to offend the English) match 

maybe we'll see a wave train of tropical activity into the Gulf of Mexico and latent heat pump a ridge across the east through November 

yehhhhhhhh

Next week is getting mildly interesting in terms of severe potential. GFS keeps wanting to shoot an EML plume our way atop the ridge.

Just now, dryslot said:

They always seem to manage them up there, And i'm sure many go undetected over the unpopulated NW areas too.

ME averages about 2 tornadoes per year but I wouldn't be shocked if it's probably much closer to 3. With dual pol now perhaps they can start being detected more but they get some really nasty supercells mid-to-late summer every year it seems. 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Couple more TOR's in Northern Maine tomorrow.

wouldn't surprise me lol. 

When it comes to the time where my girlfriend and I are ready to move in together and we get a place the top 3 things on my list are;

1) A GREAT view to the west/north for t'storm viewing

2) Minimal spider activity...going to get it sprayed heavily 

3) Open enough to measure snowfall and set up a weather station

Awesome pool! 

hmmm there could be some splitting supercells or transient supercells up in ME tomorrow. 

I wish this wasn't so far out in time  

I'm seeing higher forecast CAPE values on the GFS moving into September than we've had here all summer  

36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Same here. It’s needed. 

indeed. it's a nice steady rain too

It’s raining and cold 

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Spent the weekend fishing on Lake Ontario, storms were popping up left and right out of nowhere, saw 5 water spouts, right up your alley Wiz.

I saw a video yesterday of one of the waterspouts...was pretty sick. Was actually relatively large too

Where's the ketchup?

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There is no football season. And honestly who cares based on what they’re  doing 

The Cowboys could be the only team to have every single starter with nobody sitting out and they still would miss the playoffs   

I just want one freaking more severe wx event before we get into winter...ONE. In a summer which has been garbage that is not asking for much at all. We've barely had any. Had that one enhanced risk day which was good and fun for NY into central New England (where the enhanced risk belonged...not into freaking into CT...absolutely uncalled for) and had that Sunday warm front setup and a few other minor things but GARBAGE. This is why super hot just sucks for severe...WGAF if you have 5,0000 SBCAPE if there's no trigger or shear. They had better severe in CA Saturday than we've had. That's just wrong 

Plenty of MCS potential across northern New England with the upcoming pattern. It just sucks we can break off a piece of EML air and advect it this way...though it tries to happen. I'm also expecting another derecho event in the upper-Midwest/Ohio Valley region

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Take em up. 

they've had to do that out west...going above guidance by like 5-8F and still coming up several degrees short in some cases  

Having playoff hockey games at like 3-4 PM during the week is super weird. Hell, the Bruins had the 11:00 AM game last week  

Part of me likes it since I wake up around 4 AM but I'll miss a chunk of today's game b/c I have meetings until 4:30  

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t know you can make it work, balancing healthy safety and education but I think districts have to try? Glad I’m not making the decisions though. 

You said it pretty darn well here. This is a no win situation for everyone involved. This situation too would be a PERFECT way to prove just how effective masks are. I totally get the notion that you can't expect a 5-6-7 year old child to keep a mask on all day but if school's are going to be in session at least enforce a mask policy. But then that just draws out the clowns who whine and cry b/c they don't have a "choice" anymore