weatherwiz

Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

We will send in our Power Companies to assist, rest assured

CT will ask for it 5 days after the storm

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It was nice knowing James.

Great...well prepare for an incoming post about how winds of 90+ knots at H3 means 70-80 mph gusts at the sfc

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That moves up over CT in prior frames 

yeah NE CT gets into this as it cranks. I'll have to re-do my snow map from yesterday...pretty off as I had the jack in NW CT (damn it). 

damn it is going to rip under this,

Look at this sounding. Looks like a nice MAUL too. Roof crushing, tree toppling stuff here

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And you would be right.

I'm actually kinda pissed about this b/c I think I mentioned the other day but when I made my snow map earlier I completely didn't take that aspect into account. 

Just now, dryslot said:

When there is a lot of convection involved it always seem to interfere with the slp track to the east

I feel like when this is the case the outcome is never good for us. 

There is a crap ton of convection that forms off the mid-Atlantic coast...so many low centers on the run all focused towards the convection. 

ughhh plots on weathermodels having issues loading hours. 

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Euro?

think its just running now

might be a bit east (so that trend could still be possible). but still cranks that CCB rapidly!

Just now, ineedsnow said:

430

yup right on time!

eh I'm always screwed up on time, date, day who the hell knows anymore

1 minute ago, radarman said:

I might be way off base here, but doesn't the 18z gfs usually not start rolling in til 430ish.  Maybe my sources are just slow? 

I could have swore it was like 3:45-4:00 but maybe it is 4:30

ughhhh where the hell is the 18z GFS? This past like year has been freaking awful with NCEP/NWS products. Horrific page loading issues, displaying previous maps, incorrect graphics, numerous issues with running models. HOW CAN THERE BE SO MANY ISSUES???? I can't stand technology...it's so great yet nothing but a piece of junk. then issues other places too...COD, had problems loading bufkit profiles from PSU...WTF IS GOING ON???????? FIX THINGS

I bet there some some NCEP issue going on. Don't see the GFS anywhere yet

1 minute ago, radarman said:

FWIW, the GFS has not been trending east and is definitely worth of a watch for western SNE and adjacent CNE, ENY , etc.  The euro has been way west up to the last run.   And toss the mesos for this event... JMO

Agreed

soggy flakes  

sounds like my cereal when I take too long to eat it

WSW starting to fly

Just now, PhineasC said:

The HRRRRRR at 48 hours sounds like the NAM at 384 to be honest. 

It certainly is hit and miss (which even be said with the HRRR at 12 hours) but it's really great for assessing consistency and trends. So let's say the 0z HRRR tonight is in line with the NAM and then each subsequent run remains consistent...even though other guidance is suggesting otherwise, seeing the HRRR be consistent I think would be a strong indicator. not sure how well this works with winter weather but the idea works great with convection. 

Can't wait until the 0z HRRR tonight. That will go out to Saturday evening. I love following the HRRR to assess consistency/confidence. I thought all runs were running to 48-hours though as of Dec 1? 

meh it's just a difference of capture/phase and when that occurs. this run just wasn't aligned with everything...but the pieces are still there. I don't think it was totally far off from a big hit. 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAM actually might whiff this run.

I didn't have matching hours when comparing...just realized. but yeah it looks way southeast. 

Looks like the capture happens just too latE?

Actually it doesn't seem all that different than 12z in terms of phase. Even have a pretty nice dual-jet stream going on

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I can see I91 corridor doing well if it mid levels close S of LI but I think that’s the best case scenario. Looks to happen later imo which makes it an NECT and points NE special. 

it certainly is a close call. I certainly agree NE of us will get smoked. On my map though I did have CT jackpot in the NW hills (I mean can you ever go wrong with that lol)

Just now, dendrite said:

idk...that mid level banding may arc right up into here.

Thundersnow!!!

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s the more likelier placement of the two. Strange when the more progressive model is phased in sooner than the amp happy model. Not sure what to make of that. 

COuld be a matter of how quickly H7 materializes and closes off. But even based on where the NAM has this occurring I would suspect the best banding gets shoved a bit NW with time and perhaps would be similar to where GFS hints.