weatherwiz

Part of it too is I think they've probably been heavily briefed on this for several days. I mean this storm signal has been there for a week. They've certainly had plenty of lead time

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

All things we discussed unfortunately are coming to fruition, fine line convection and dry slot. F Me

Yeah definitely becoming more of a concern. And this is why I was more conservative with thoughts on wind...but if this convection does verify with that leading dry slot we are screwed...well especially out your way. There is some possibility though that the majority of the line end up passing more of E CT (which screws you but would be some better news for much of the state). 

Watching the snow/grass line outside the window. snow line receding faster than Kevin's hairline 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And that weird crescent shape low wind area is the hrrr analysis of snowpack I think. Probably over analyzing as that snow is gonzo inside 495 tonight. 

Do you think there is room for a narrow dry slot ahead of the convective line? Looks like the hi-res models are kinda picking up on that. That would certainly escalate higher-end gust potential 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With our shitty infrastructure in CT, 45mph will do enough damage. 

Exhaust from airplanes landing at BDL cause small twigs/branches and loose roof tiles to come down in the area

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Seems to line up with LLJ and convective elements. Seems similar to Isisas 

That's why I think this is such a tough wind forecast. 

Is it too late to fly to NC?

You only need minutes of 60-70 mph winds to get damage/power outages. Just look at thunderstorms 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

NWS service has 70 out that way already. 

I think that's where the best winds will end up. 

I'm still torn about here in CT. The core of the 925 winds may only brush across the southern part of the state. The HRRR too has a bit more in the way of lightning density than I would have envisioned. If the convective stuff happens we're pretty screwed. And right now those signals seem to be getting stronger (for convection). 

If the HRRR is right SE MA/Cape could get destroyed with damaging winds. That is a pretty impressive line of convection shown. Probably see gusts 70-80 if that verified 

Thus far NAM/HRRR indeed indicating some sort of convective line moving through. Widespread 50-60 knot gusts with it 

I suppose this dry slot along with nose of LLJ max could be a focal point in aiding convection 

3 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

The shear surprised me. Wasn't there event earlier this summer/fall with low CAPE and high shear that surprised? It's escaping me. 

There was the serial derecho a few months back. I think there was another event too a bit before that. 

The low CAPE/high shear events are very fickle. It's actually possible for shear to be too strong b/c if shear far outweighs buoyancy the updrafts get sheared apart and you can't generate robust enough updrafts to punch into and utilize the shear. Also, it is so warm aloft I think it will be very difficult to generate any lighting and we certainly won't see updrafts capable of lightning production.

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

0-3KM? I didn’t loo to be honest, but are you sure?

yeah I was just checking the 18z HRRR and it had 60-80 J of 3km CAPE...given the shear parameters that certainly may be enough. 

Maybe I'm wrong and there will actually be some convection involved here. I think that's really the only way we materialize higher end winds out of this. Even still looking at bufkit (only looked at CT) it still seems to be struggling to really bring down significant gusts. But I mean if there is convection involved...it's going to be quite ugly. I just didn't see much in the way for convection outside of the insane forcing.

EDIT: actually 12z was a bit better at BDL in terms of mixing

This seems a little crazy but there might be a window for some pre-line low-topped supercells Thursday evening. The HRRR has quite a bit of 3km CAPE actually. 

should have gone chasing in NC tomorrow 

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Lets just go all in . 

Huge potential right near the Outer Banks...models traverse a ribbon of >1000 MLCape across the area. Tons of llvl instability too. Small window for a strong tornado in eastern NC

WOW enhanced in the mid-Atlantic with 10% TOR

I was around in the 80's too...but was a swimmer through most of the decade. 

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

80kts at 925mb is pretty amazing.

Even 90+ just off the Cape...unreal 

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We are due for dull. We’ve had a lot of record events. 

2020 wasn't really all that dull but I guess it depends on the definition one is using for "dull"

Sure last winter was pathetic and this summer wasn't the most active in terms of convection, but the weather events we did get this year...they packed a punch. 

3km NAM actually has a decent surge of elevated instability and even hints at an embedded supercell potential  

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hope so. The meso models are very concerning, global models just don't have the fine tuning mesos do. Point in time bufkit has issues with spatial fast moving lines. Let's hope you are correct Paul. Merry Christmas my good friend

Merry Christmas to you too, Steve. 

This is certainly close. Did notice the 3km NAM was showing 50+ knot gusts over a widespread area. Not totally ruling this out. 

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

GfS bufkit?

For BDL, it actually looks to have the highest gust potential later Friday morning (if you keep the momentum xfer option at a 10). However, if you increase the depth of mixing and change it to a 20 it does yield gusts potential 50+. 

Too me that seems a little concerning for higher gusts b/c the GFS is usually more mix happy. 

FWIW, I'm not saying we aren't seeing big gusts. I'm thinking 40-50 mph gusts state wide but don't think we'll see widespread 50-60+ gusts

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

1717 is just a trouble maker. You and I know Wiz, we can discuss anything without personal attacks. I agree with most of your assumptions however 2 concerns, fine line convection and dry slots in between rain bands. I so don't want this storm

Completely agreed...if we see fine line convection or any dry slots...well all bets are off.