weatherwiz

ehhh still a long way to do. Who even knows if that system will be a thing. I guess though if some wave can get into the Caribbean and heads towards the Gulf it will encounter favorable conditions.

GFS remains pretty consistent with a cane into the Gulf of Mexico first weekend of September. Still obviously in fantasy range but the consistency is noted.

A shortwave trough will be moving across southeast Canada and northern New England through the day Friday with a surface low moving east-northeast across northern New England. This will push a warm front through southern New England with a cold front arriving from the west. Out ahead of the cold front and south of the warm front a very warm and humid airmass is expected to materialize with high temperatures likely pushing into the lower-to-mid 80's (there is the potential for some upper 80's) with dew points into the 60's. This should net around 1000-1500 J/KG of MLCAPE with stronger instability limited by only 60's dewpoints and adequate mid-level lapse rates. A ribbon of 25-35 knots (35-45 knots) of bulk shear should traverse the region as the shortwave trough approaches. While wind shear is not tremendously strong, this shear is more than adequate for thunderstorms to become organized and likely develop into multicell clusters or short line segments. Strongest thunderstorms, especially within the stronger bulk shear may take on transient supercell characteristics. The result will be the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon moving in a west-to-east fashion across the region. Strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and perhaps even some hail or even a brief tornado (especially in the vicinity of the warm front where low-level shear will be enhanced). Let's do it!!!!!

I guess 80-85 is a "cooldown" compared to 85-90

I had a dog growing up and we had to put him down my senior year of high school...that was devastating. He was like my best friend. I've been dating my girlfriend for just about a year now and she has a dog and this is the best dog I have ever met. I am beyond obsessed with this dog. He just turned 8 and the life expectancy for his breed is 10-12. I've been through alot and handled alot in life and can handle more than most...when he goes I will not be able to handle that at all

probably chillin in the pool laying back on floaties watching the eye move overhead

I've thought about a thread for tomorrow but yeah...it will just jinx it lol. Have to really watch probably southern VT/NH where warm front will be

I'm throwing all my ducks in the pond on tomorrow...unfortunately the little s**** can't swim and will probably drown

I really miss doing that. It was so much fun. I've been trying really hard and wanting to get back into it.

Yup lol. I remember listening to the police scanners in and around Worcester and it was just non-stop reports of damage coming in. Couldn't keep up with it. There were certainly some winter storms too I stayed up all night for (The 2013 one for sure). Not sure if this counts but prior to December 1, 2006 I remember staying up for two days straight because the SPC outlined us in a risk for severe weather like 3-4 days out and I was pumped so I didn't go to bed for two days.

Wow...this is a great question. Not even sure. The one that distinctly comes to mind is the December 2008 ice storm. Was assisting BOX HAM Radio/skywarn team with damage reports and I'll never forget it being like 9:00-10:00 AM and then all of a sudden it was like 5:00 AM.

looked outside and it is raining but lightly

TBH I have no clue what the discussion is even about or what's going on.

This post deserves a lol and weenie emoji

Are you a salesperson for 4'' rain gauges?

We can go from counting dead grass blades to Steve hoping in the chopper and hoisting SOS signals in a matter of a couple coastals.

drought lol

or if you don't really have a good place to put it.

This one is a classic> Swizzle stick

Yeah the NAM actually has a pocket of pretty decent lapse rates (at least compared to what we're used too). Given how it looks like the trough is still slightly amplifying as it moves across the region I wouldn't be shocked to see models increase shear a bit more either. That would also help with some better lapse rates.

25-30 knot bulk shear is sufficient for severe weather. If we were looking at widespread severe weather potential you'd want higher. Not saying this is a wild severe event but looks good for some more rain and thunderstorms with some risk for damaging wind gusts

Friday could be pretty fun...especially western sections. Quite a bit of shear around.

The only drought talk come October will be the on-going drought the Yankees have

We'll be saying what drought in the matter of weeks.

Might need to watch that Waterbury cell