weatherwiz

Fair lol

Please don't post his videos

I can't believe I am missing this storm in Florida by a week ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I don’t think I want to go back to CT lol. My girlfriends parents place is sick. The view out the guest room window is amazing. Nice little pound in the back with iguanas walking around, little geico looking things, walking around in shorts. Palm trees. Please don’t send me back

87 with a dewpoint of 75. This would never get old

It is cold and windy up here damn it the picture won’t load

That is a monster ULJ too into the PAC NW region late this weekend. 180+ knots in the jet streak. That would have to shatter some Nov. records I would think (especially this early).

This time tomorrow I'll be in Florida where it will be well into the 80's with juicy humidity. With the Bruins on National TV tomorrow night I'm hoping I can drink margaritas in the hot tub and watch the Bruins

It looks like there is a great deal of cold which will be on this side of the hemisphere within the Arctic/polar regions so there's a decent bet we will see some impressive cold shots at times probably during the second half of the month. Could be pretty wonky though with mild/cold periods. Looks like there could be a quite a bit of wave breaking across the eastern PAC and CONUS so lots of ridge/trough scenarios. Our warm periods will probably be quite anomalous and our cold periods may be rather anomalous.

Delray Beach, FL

I'm not a bit water person but if the water is that warm I may love it. But I'm afraid of getting eaten by sharks so I might only go like ankle deep

Going to Florida for the first time ever Tuesday - Saturday. Was hoping for some good thunderstorm threats or even a late season tropical but can't wait to get back into 80's and humidity.

I currently don't have any thoughts. I don't feel comfortable enough attempting a long-range forecast right now. I want to continue doing research and better understand all the variables at play and the evolution of these variables through the cool season. I'm sure Ray will be posting his winter weather outlook very soon and I'm really looking forward to that. Perhaps he'll share some of his initial thoughts.

Here is December 1983 (ESOI value -3.5 which is lowest Dec value on record). Does not seem to fit the mold which is above-average EPAC below-average WPAC Here is December 1999 (ESOI values 2.4 which is highest Dec value on record). This seems to fit better (above-average EPAC below-average WPAC)

There is something that is baffling me. I've been doing composites for Sea-level Pressure Anomalies and exploring the SOI and moreso the Equatorial SOI. La Nina's result in +ESOI values with higher than usual pressure in the eastern Pacific and lower than usual pressure in the western Pacific. Conversely, the opposite is true during EL Nino periods. In order to produce some illustrations to see this visually, I took the top 5 positive/negative ESOI values for December. The left is during Nina's and the right is during Nino's. I am not seeing an opposite composite. Am I interpreting something wrong? Focusing on the wrong region (I'm focusing on equator, however, it appears there may be a bit of a correlation look closer to 30N):

Thunder!!!!!!!!!!

Does anyone know if there is a dataset for the Equatorial SOI? I find alot of literature on it, but can't seem to find a dataset.

hmmm interesting feature over Pawling, NY

I wish (accurate) QBO data existed much farther back

I believe there is some sort of correlation between the fall-months and winter months, however, I think the biggest issue is correlations are trying to be tied into specific variables (temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies) as opposed to pattern structures and evolution. We all get excited when we see specific pattern regimes which have a strong correlation to producing weather events, however, I think sometimes the excited gets too overstated. Re-analysis is extremely helpful in that you can find 10-big events and come up with a pattern correlation, but I think the one thing we are lacking quite a bit in is with "misses". The KU books get into these which is fantastic, but I think outside of this book there really isn't a focus on these. You could get a pattern which produced 2 big storms before and we know this because we have the events to do reanalysis on, but how many times has that pattern regime occurred with nothing happening? Perhaps something exists out there but I wish there was a way to measure the # of storms per winter...now you would have to come up with some definitions and set parameters but something like this, IMO could add tremendous value to long-range forecasting and even medium-range forecasting.

It even gets some SBCAPE in here at times!

Remember the silly drought talk drought lol

I'm waiting for one of these years for a flock of geese flying south to get caught up in the circulation and become a TDS

Looks like a brief TDS too

The line was getting kinky and now we gotta TOR