weatherwiz

We should get another re-load of the pattern moving into February. We'll certainly still have some wintry threats though through the end of the month. They'd all probably be similar to what we're looking at for next Monday/Tuesday where we may need to rely on high pressure to the north to reinforce and lock in cold. While the upper pattern looks like crap, if we can keep moving sfc highs southeast across Canada we'll have some shots.

I second this.

Been super busy with alot going on but it's great to see this lining up to the thoughts some had. It's also great to see the GFS coming around to those thoughts as well. I had a feeling the GFS was just not handling this well the other day. Certainly may not be a "big storm" but its something.

Holy shit that's awesome

I don't think using snow maps is a viable way of looking for improvements over run-to-run

These are essentially like summer thunderstorms with more powerful dynamics and less instability. Ultimately, some towns get smoked and other don’t. Some get light stuff and some see nothing at all.

Actually I didn't even see that stuff down in NJ (busy with some other stuff) but was looking more at the ingredients. Anyways, that stuff in NJ should nail CT too. Going to be a region wide squall line of snow and strong winds. Snowacho?

sorry for the delay Overall, the line of snow squalls will probably be north of CT but would still expect scattered snow squalls to move across the state.

yes

Mesos also developing around 100 J/KG of SBCAPE through the day as the mid-level lapse rates steepen. If you close your eyes it almost feels like May tracking thunderstorms

Here is a great tie into what Will mentioned in his opening post with positive voriticty advection and a response at the sfc with the kink in the isobars. You can see it occurring in real time now.

Yeah I think it will eventually tune into a scenario where it paints us with widespread at least light snows and accumulating. Still can't rule out some low-end advisory at least somewhere in the region.

I know there's been alot of posts with the "storm vs. no storm" but I don't really think that is the case. The GFS has always had something, its just a matter of where the baroclinic zone resides. There certainly will be a wave of low pressure which develops within the South which moves off the Southeast coast and then rides northeast along the zone. If that zone is further northwest, we increase the potential for snow. If it is further southeast then we decrease the chance. But I think there are other factors as well. This is now 3 winters in a row we've seen these significant Arctic blasts penetrate deep into the South with potential for some significant wintry precipitation within the South. At least from my experience the GFS has done handled these well, particularly with precipitation forming along it. The NAM seems to have a better handle. Not sure how much of an influence this has on things but the GFS also tends to get way too aggressive with the cold (at least MOS does). So it is possible this is one reason why the GFS seems to have a SE bias in these situations.

ptype maps are about as garbage as snow maps

The GFS seems clueless with this boundary

That 700-500 lapse rates is pretty absurd for around here. I've seen 7.5-8 om winter with these Arctic vorts but nearing 9...wow

yes

18z NAM bufkit. Pretty good signal for gusts 55-60 with the squalls.

18z GFS Bufkit at BDL (this is a bit overdone). I'll post the NAM in a follow up post (which may be a bit underdone) but snow squall warnings tomorrow?

I was just suggesting a new thread to keep the events separate, especially with how quickly threads grow. I don't think a significant hit is likely Tuesday, but I would not rule out some sort of accumulating snow event whether that be 1-2'' or 3-4''.

I would go ahead and make a new thread IMO.

This jet streak is absolutely wild

For sure, been super busy the past few days but looking at this now. It's definitely impressive looking. NAM even spitting out a few hundred J of SBCape. Going to do a blog post. It's like May in January Kevin is right too with the wind potential. Those llvl lapse rates are wild so mixing winds down won't be an issue.

I wouldn't be so quick to totally write the NAM off just yet. One major difference between the NAM/GFS is where the placement of the Arctic front and where the baroclinic zone resides. Models can really struggle with this aspect. If you look at the NAM (the Euro is somewhat closer to the NAM than GFS I think) where the baroclinic zone is positioned, combined with the dynamics would yield potential for cyclogenesis and low pressure to move north and east off the coast. I know there are some models that are amped, but I think those models are a bit overdone. I don't see much in the way of room for this to become amped, however, Tuesday into Wednesday could be a bit interesting as that second shortwave which moves through looks to be more amped and have room to be more amped. One of the keys with these Arctic boundaries is where the barolcinic zone resides which models can really struggle with. There is even differences with the swath of wintry precipitation in the South but if a sfc low can spawn more quickly that is something to watch. Ultimately, the window is very small for a bigger event, but region wide light snows are certainly on the table.

High soil moisture = higher dews for May?