weatherwiz

https://www.stratobserve.com/

This should help too, no? Looking at this (and other products) the PV does not look very strong and pretty elongated and well into Canada so we should get plenty of energy rotating around, hopefully into our area. (Note: This is just a snap shot from HR 240)

Precisely why you can't just look at SLP/QPF maps for storms.

Love this look, especially because the STJ isn't raging. If the STJ was raging, we would be singing a much different tune. and not a bad thing either...especially since its not a raging strong EL Nino look. This is what I was envisioning we would have seen setup last winter, for a time anyways.

Maybe the Boston Bruins should hold a practice in your yard

I thought I noticed that this morning on 91

December 5th is the May 31 of winter. Makes sense how both those dates have had some notable major weather events around these parts. Both right in the beginning of transition periods.

I don't know about that. I mean maybe here on this place, some people don't but I still question that. More times than not storms get hyped up 6-7-8 days out because the snow maps go bonkers and literally 95% of the discussion revolves around the 10:1 and Kuchera maps from 20 different models, 3% of the discussion is actually looking at and applying meteorology, and the other 2% consists of back-and-forth bickering because person A isn't happy with where they are with respect to the storm so cry bust while person B is very happy and calls overperformer because they got crushed.

How about we just make our own snow maps!

Agreed, I always thought that some of that stuff was overplayed...like the snow cover in southeast Canada, lack of snow cover on the ground here, etc. Sure there is some influence, but it isn't going to have any bearing on the overall pattern. If the pattern is in place and you have favorable shortwave evolution and interaction, who cares if there is or isn't snow pack across southeast Canada or our region.

I guess this could be posted in the December thread, but one thing that hopefully works in our favor moving through the first half of December is a less chaotic flow and pattern which are loaded with shortwaves. A huge part of the reason why guidance has struggled so much, particularly ensembles is the barrage of shortwaves. One model run and one model would highlight one shortwave as the main player while another model choose another and it was just constant flip-flopping. The northern stream should offer us plenty of chances for clippers and/or re-developing clippers off the coast. Looks like we may lose some STJ for a while, which isn't a bad thing at all but once we get a bit of a STJ connection going again, as long as we continue with the troughing signal in the East, we'll open the door for coastals.

I'm really not sold on much for this end of the week. It's just a cold front coming through with a weak wave developing along it. There certainly is room for a second wave to develop Thursday night/Friday morning but I don't think its going to be a situation where NNE has any room for snow (reason being QPF will be farther south). It's either going to be rain for SNE or the second wave develops even farther south and we get little QPF, outside of the coast.

yeah definitely going to be on the slick side up your way. This is why when I complain about how shitty winter is...I have to remember to indicate I'm talking about down here. Even in the most garbage regimes, you NNE'ers still find way's to get wintry precip

Should be a nice little drink for everyone tomorrow. Certainly not enough to cut into the deficit really but something.

That could be some serious lake effect snow around Buffalo Saturday with thunder...maybe waterspouts too. Snowadoes comin'

Kind of sucks that shortwave is trailing by so much coming across the Lakes. But then again...with our luck any interaction would proably just net cyclogenesis in the HV

Nice!!

the clouds

yeah the clowns were going insane. I got shafted big time here with that band setting up over northern or central Connecticut. That was the white flag for me with winter. But that's what these snow maps do...they truly are ruining the field. They are used all over and everywhere. It's all about hype, ratings, likes, and mentions. Too bad NOAA doesn't have any authority to ban those garbage products from being created.

yeah same storm but like Scott said not that dramatic. I forget what some of the forecasts were for Boston but I want to say the consensus forecasts were like 8-12''?

This has probably been frustrating above anything else. The model agreement has been dogshit and the ensembles have been just as bad...they've lead to several "high confidence" forecasts for some storms 3-5 days out, and the snowfall forecasts start flying, winter storm watches/warnings start flying, and then everything falls to crap the last minute. Then of course we had the Feb 5(?) debacle where Hartford county went from a winter storm warning to advisory only to get over a foot of snow widespread lol.

llvl lows developing and tracking to our south and this is what we can muster up for 925 temps But that is some serious llvl cold behind this...definitely concerned with some degree of suppression, however, we could be in game for clippers.

There seems to be a degree of spread within the strength of the MJO but perhaps the MJO strength will be too weak to have much of an impact or influence on the overall pattern, especially if that northern PAC domain verifies as is.

Same...I'm down for the December one, whatever the date is.

west-northwest to northwest flow over waters which I'm sure are still quite warm with 850's -12C to -13C...that would be some wild instability.