weatherwiz

Well the structure of the pattern is a bit different this go around with the core of the ridging a bit farther north and east so this bodes well for NY into New England. There will be lots of details to iron out too. For example, there will be a weak stationary front within the region which will be the boundary between unseasonably warm/humid weather versus cooler and less humid. This will be critical because this will establish the instability gradient. Secondly, the real big question is EML advection and can we maintain an EML into the region.

Looks like High Pressure building in late next week behind the passage of the front late Wednesday which would bode well for a dry weekend

Ultimately, I can see two corridors, one from SW CT into NJ and a second across NY into northwest MA/VT...this area could have potentially greater severe probabilities and tornado threat, especially if that LLJ ramps up a bit earlier than forecast

Might start a thread for Monday - Wednesday (with a focus on Wednesday) just because I feel like it and people can post their feels about how they won't get anything

LFG.

I take the L on today booooooo

probably getting some hail in Ridgebury, CT

Part of the problem is their infrastructure with drainage is crumbling...not too mention everything is clogged with garbage

That's an interesting take. And by no means am I speaking negatively about the NHC or questioning this in a negative manner, its just an observation. At least with Dolly, I'm a bit surprised at the "comeback" made over the last 24-hours. It was clearly being impacted by a hostile environment but it survived and, at least for a brief period, is in a less hostile environment.

What's with this recent uptick of tropical systems going straight from Invest to Tropical Storm

Nice mid-level meso on that cell headed towards Fairfield County.

This is a good thing...allowing more breaks of sun and stronger instability to build. There is a subtle pre-frontal trough back across eastern PA to west of the Hudson. This should slide east during the day and that's when we'll see storms develop across the Hudson and western MA/CT...at least this is what I ws envisioning yesterday occurring but guidance does show this eastward shift. I still think it will be an active day for western sections

Its a really good pattern for MCS developing across the Great Lakes and propagating ESE across the Northeast (whether that ends up being just to our southwest or more across northern VT/NH and ME). One thing really lacking is some stout EML advection, though the GFS does hint at some plumes of steeper lapse rates trying to move in at times but they lose their integrity. If we can get a clear signal for EML advection we could rock next week

Agreed. Models too continuing to show enlarging of the hodographs through the day as well with decent instability.

Kind of surprised we don't have a marginal tomorrow. I guess that will come at 1730

The slight east has been expanded eastward. Will be a fun day into MA/CT

Same here. I've been wanting to dig into this more too but I'm really curious as to the LA Nina events of 2017-2018, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022...for some reason these seasons exhibit some larger spread in the trimonthly numbers versus the traditional ONI and ENS-ONI. Even 2025-2026 I think had this to some degree.

Activity will be more on the widespread side into western CT...probably up to the CT River. Activity begins isolated but should quickly organize into short lines and clusters.

Sounds like the Earthquake caused an avalanche and the snow/ice dumped into a river and caused a major blockage, allowing the water to build up and unfortunately cause the flooding. Heartbreaking. I can't imagine being in a situation like that, trying to run with essentially nowhere to go and not a chance to outrun it.

The front comes through on Friday, anything tomorrow would be pre-frontal trough related. Hudson Valley to the CT River will see scattered storms develop during the afternoon, perhaps evolving into multiple lines but there won't be much in the way of west-to-east progression, will be more southwest-to-northeast so probably will see some flash flooding where storms train...probably within the CT River Valley and Naugatuck Valley (should start mentioning them too for future reference because of the rate they flood in these setups).

Friday could be a sneaky severe weather risk for eastern sections

In the end one of two scenarios will probably occur 1) MCS activity is confined to extreme northern VT/NH and ME 2) MCS activity dives to our southwest

These things are extremely unpredictable this far out, but there is some MCS potential on Tuesday...perhaps multiple MCS rounds

HRRR gone wild tomorrow

ha, didn't think it would happen with the 8:00 update lol