weatherwiz

As long as the extended range looks active with hits that's all we can ask for right now. The extended shows plenty of cold around and looks active...can't ask for anything else really. Obviously we're going to want to see this continuing as we get closer but the look is hopeful.

Pretty much every thread turns into a whiner thread these days Luck has got to change eventually

That's what I'm mostly referring to though...is the more extreme side of the cold. If you're outside and even if its into the lower 20's and your dressed for it and active, you'll be able to tolerate it for sure. I've never skied but I can presume that if its in the teens or maybe even single digits, with all the equipment plus the body working...you'll build up a sweat.

Oh yes...I mean if you're outside being active and doing stuff that certainly helps. I mean before I started driving and I had to either take the bus everywhere or walk (used to walk 2+ miles to work and back when busses didn't operate) I would get warm...even if it was in the teens. But nobody is going outside when its 15F out and going, "ahhh this is such a great day". Even those saying they like the cold or don't mind it...sit outside in a lawn chair for 3-4 hours (even if dressed like an eskimo) and tell me its enjoyable or tolerable or likable

The final few weeks of the month are going to be interesting...just have to hope the storm track sets up and work in our favor. But at lease these two look like a decent bet 1) Active storm track 2) Plenty of cold air around Storm track is going to be the critical component here because despite the cold around things could evolve to where we predominately see cutters. We can hope for a more negative NAO with favorable structure orientation but there is a quite a bit of spread in the direction of the NAO.

oof...well I salut you

Even if its like 10-15F outside and with wind? That's what I am referring to with regards to cold.

I don't understand the idea of telling people who hate the cold to just move down South lol. Nobody likes the cold, some people may tolerate the cold better than others, but nobody likes it. For those that "like" the cold, how long are you sitting outside during the day? How many lawn games are you playing? How often are you sitting pool side? The extent of your outside activities is probably just walking to your car and then walking inside to wherever you're going, then back to your car, then back inside your house.

The Mets have already been eliminated from the 2026 post-season

That period at least to have less in the way of potential destructive interference. Kind of like how things seem to evolve past that period.

When dealing with phasing potential, it's not uncommon or farfetched to see swings of multiple hundreds or miles or more from run-to-run or even mode-to-model. The difference between a phase and no phase can end up substantial. Hell, even the difference between a phase and just a partial phase can be massive in terms of low development and track. The end of week/weekend was always very low potential but the changes needed to get something aren't terribly substantial.

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes.

And he's the one telling people in SNE to move

I've always said and felt this... Once we enter the -AMO phase (which I believe we're beginning to move into), if we're continuing to see shattering temperature records and continuing the theme of hurricanes taking off and undergoing RI...then we're in a real cause for concern.

I'll just be glad not to have it dark in the house at 3:30 and having to throw lights on all over.

8 weeks until we move the clocks ahead

violently sell that

Well was using this weekend as a guide of "making or breaking" for next week and last nights runs certainly at least kept the intrigue alive. While the likelihood for that initial wave is decreasing, we may be slowly improving the potential for that follow up wave ~16th. One thing to watch too is models being a bit too aggressive with shunting the baroclinic zone too far south and east. Still seems like forever to to but we wanted something to track and we got it

Yup…textbook events are very hard to come by. Many weather events, including big events (whether severe or winter) generally aren’t textbook.

shame there was never any updates to NARR after 2014

I was hoping to pull off 100” but probably going to have to scale that back to 80” given slow January start.

meant in reference to forecast models not sensible weather haha

I was kind of hoping we could have gotten a solid 2-3 year stretch of ENSO neutral conditions but this developing La Nina and now signals for an emerging EL Nino are going to run that. But this constant seesaw of ENSO with multiple strong EL Nino events over the last decade is really causing some major atmospheric chaos

As much as I am a believer in CC and its influences on weather and while there may be some influences, I agree that CC is not the ultimate driver behind our crummy luck. Eventually we will get into periods (and a several year stretch) where things work out and we get slammed. This will happen sooner versus later.

I'm ready for climo to deliver. I finally got all shoveled out from all the good looks and each of the climo periods from the last several winters