weatherwiz

Yup...precisely this. At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective

We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is.

Unfortunately not looking good. Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west. on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope.

Beautiful environment to our southwest...sigh. Well hopefully at least some good storms can fire across southern NY/PA/NJ...maybe even scrape Fairfield County

This is some insane rain with this though. Getting crushed with the rain today

Not sure much wind with this...instability is most elevated and there probably is at least some sort of inversion rooted above the sfc.

Might be just enough elevated CAPE to get a few lightning strikes

Does look like though some stronger velocities being sampled by LCH

For some odd reason it seems many are trying to will this thing into strengthening. I made a post about this in the SNE form yesterday but on Twitter (since Sunday really) there's been nothing but posts from many people trying to find any reason to justify its strengthening and taking off. I mean sure this has become better organized better structurally over the past few days but is a 40 mph storm lol. Its been nothing but posts about satellite presentation, convection and how "the look means its strengthening". Weird

Shocked we don't have a marginal

yeah some of these HRRR runs overnight definitely are intriguing.

I was a bit shocked when I saw that this morning and wording of "significant strengthening expected" prior to landfall. Certainly we've seen this develop a nice looking circulation but there's been little evidence of any potential for significant strengthening. Even latest recon passes aren't finding much. Satellite presentation and evolution doesn't really scream that either. You never know with these Gulf systems though...who knows, we probably get hurricane winds that extend 3 miles from the center

Updated to extend to Thursday. NAM, GFS, and Euro are in agreement in the warm sector expanding northeast on Thursday as the upper-level trough swinging across southeastern Canada along with the eastward progression of the parent low help lift the surface warm front into the region. Pretty strong shear too. Tuesday looks good for southeast propagating storms at least across western CT with some severe risk. Much of Wednesday is dry but may see a round of rain and storms move across the region Wednesday night. Thursday we get stuff ahead of the actual front.

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming.

No stupid snow maps to post when it comes to tropical

Its been nothing but "a, b, and c look good, good sign its strengthening" "Thunderstorms blossoming around the center....good sign it's strengthening" "Angle of the thunderstorms...good sign it's strengthening" "Compact storm, just needs to spin more...good sign it's strengthening" But yeah this probably finds some way to get TS winds for about 7 minutes before moving inland

Twitter is so ridiculous with weather. Everyone trying so hard to justify why PTC 5 is going to strengthen and going nuts with how the convection looks, how because its a tight circulation so all it needs to do is increase its spin, and blah blah blah...meanwhile recon is extremely meh lol. Its literally been happening yesterday with people trying to will this to just take off

That is some environment that will be evolving just west of CT tomorrow afternoon and probably into western CT late afternoon/early evening. Guidance isn't showing a ton developing, forcing isn't particularly strong and looking at several soundings, the LFC is quite a bit higher than the LCL. With this said, that promotes an environment for discrete storms and any storms that fire in the afternoon could be particularly nasty. Probably not strong enough llvl shear for a strong tornado but not out of the question should a supercell become mature enough, especially when considering potential for boundary interactions

One gas station up the road went from $3.66 to $3.99 in a few days...if even a few days

It's usually difficult for us not to get at least one day in when we have these type of setups. Tomorrow is going to be interesting to see play out, its been a heavy mix on how tomorrow evolves. A good part of CT may end up right along the instability gradient

Maybe a delayed but not denied situation with Thursday potentially being the day for some strong-to-severe storms. But tomorrow is going to be a pure almost nowcast

Lutchfield/Fairfield County definitely in the game for Tuesday on the 12z NAM. Right along the warm front and instability gradient and also perfectly positioned where shear/instability are maximized. This is going to be a really fun nowcasting situation

Morning clouds/rain could certainly a bit of a damper on Tuesday but nonetheless the environment will be supportive so just have to see what kind of recovery can occur. Potential will be NY/PA/western MA/western CT. Unless of course the warm front can sneak a bit farther northeast but the Tuesday AM stuff probably negates that as well.

Missing the warm nights. Standing outside with shorts/short-sleeved shirt not very fun tonight

Tuesday may end up holding the day with most potential here for western sections. What happens on Tuesday may end up pushing the boundary well southwest on Wednesday and we end up very stable