weatherwiz

Yup. There is nothing wrong with several 3-5" type ordeals. And we see plenty of potential for that on guidance. If anyone is just looking for 8-12"+ storms all the type...they're going to be disappointed 99% of the time. I believe BDL is already at average or even slightly above for the season...and its only Dec 5. I don't remember off-hand what BDL's average Dec snow is but I don't think its any more than 5 or 6". Another one of these 2-3" storms for them in the next 26 days and it was an average month.

This is also where patience is required and remembering climo. As I stated earlier, if you have a favorable pattern, you need to cash it. Whether that is early winter, meat of winter, or late winter. If you were to look at average to above average seasons, its almost 100% likely we cashed in during those favorable periods. But I mean, for the most part its like early January into early March where our climo really is. I mean look at Boston...was it 2014-2015? they went into February below average and pulled off what like 100" in 6 weeks? There other component to this is, I think the term "favorable" pattern is really becoming overplayed. Let's be serious, the batting average on these "favorable" patterns the last several years is so low that it makes Conner Wong's average look HOF worthy. I think there's been way too much stock and emphasis on the EPS these last several winters and using that to make bold statements and claims. Obviously, when looking medium and extended, EPS is your friend...there really isn't any other tool. But I think the EPS has to be taken with less weight in these pattern regimes. Because of the smoothing of the EPS its making patterns probably look better than they really are. They are just smoothing out the chaos and its the chaos in these fast flows which is acting as the inhibitor.

Trying to garner trends of precipitation and something like snow cover to influences of CC is nearly impossible to do because of the variability involved. The better metric is trying to determine how CC has influenced the larger scale oscillations, ENSO, Hadley Cell, etc and how weather patterns are behaving now versus earlier in the record books. Now, you can argue the smaller scale phenomena (precipitation, snow cover) is a product of the pattern, however, not every similar pattern is going to produce similar outputs. Not every trough digging into the East during the winter is going to elicit a major winter storm, not every trough digging across the West and progressing into the Plains in late May is going to yield a 5/3/99 or April 0f 2011.

You know what we should have done like 10-15 years ago. Got a group and rented a cabin or something in the middle of nowhere during a major snowstorm. Just imagine how fun that would have been

yeah there isn't anything fun about this at all, unless it is actually physically snowing out. The snow on the ground makes the landscape all cool and all but it does nothing to help with 0F temperatures. If its 90 with a HI of 105 in the summer, you can still at least be outside, even if its just sitting in the shade, or in the pool, or pool side. Who really is going outside to "chill" in a lawn chair with a beer at 0f?

No worries. I would have chosen this over what I'm doing but it's something I already paid for lol. I know last year we briefly discussed an early spring one but never got to it. Maybe late January we can throw a thread up with some dates for March or April

This is a true statement. Doesn't matter if its early December, mid-February, or early March...if the pattern is favorable you need to cash in. It's like sports and lets say baseball...its a long season but if you aren't winning the games you need to in April or May, those losses will come back to bite you come late September.

Hopefully this is the coldest weather of the system. We can still get snow and not have it be 0. You know when it's cold when there is steam emitting from the dog poop.

meh how'd this date planning go for you

yup...ultimately I think the GFS will end up a bit on the overdone side but I think we'll see the underdone guidance come up some.

well what I said though wasn't inaccurrate...it is hard to get warning criteria in cutters

whoops...meant to say clipper lol

Yeah...I think someone east would have a chance to pull off a warning criteria snow. ORH bufkit looked pretty solid...solid lift into DGZ and ratios upwards of 18:1.

18z GFS would probably verify low end warning criteria somewhere. warning snows tough to get with cutters but someone would probably pull it off

I believe he said he could. If more people are game for the 13th then definitely switch. Hopefully we can get a spring one too...like March before everyone starts summer activities.

yeah has a nice little axis of precipitation from E CT on east

HRRR remains quite aggressive for tomorrow night into Sat

Let's get all of the cold and snow now and through the first half of February then we can roll right into a good ole Morch

Almost seems like each clipper subsequently enhances potential for the following one

Progress

Probably going to be the good ole compromise where we see the Euro probability amplify a bit more, but we see the GFS back up on any phase or interaction. That is going to be difficult to do within the flow but this could still dig a bit more

Still might happen. NE MA could be in game between 3-6 PM for some intense squalls

Impressive snow squalls for sure!

I don't think comparing model performance for the last storm has any bearing on what to expect from guidance on this storm. They are two totally different setups. In retrospect though, all guidance really struggled with the last storm. Every model, every run, was yielding a totally different look and evolution of the 500mb energy but given that regime that should be expected. Also, when it comes to potential phasing events its all about timing. The slightest difference in the timing of the phase can mean a SLP of weak sauce with nothing or a full fledged nor'easter. Even on the Euro there is more room for the northern stream to dig given the jet streak associated with the trough but subtle differences can result in big changes to the sfc output.

Euro doesn't look bad IMO.