weatherwiz

Sure does If you live in Bloomington, IL

Absolutely something to keep in mind. Like dendrite said...this could easily turn into an overrunning pattern. Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the H5 charts but the sfc may not always connect. Remember back in like 2017(?) the Great Plains were under like 560 heights and it was widespread single digits at the sfc lol because they had that stout Arctic high.

along with scattered rain showers

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up

Yup...definitely something to consider. Could see 564 heights at 500 and +10C at 850 but could easily be wedged at the sfc

I'm ready for May. Time to fire up the thread

Well this is just an anomaly map...these colors don't necessarily mean "warm", especially this time of year. It's relative to climo. So for like NNE...its still going to be cold or chilly but a bit above of what it should be for the time of year.

I guess one big question when comparing this stretch of subpar winters versus stretches of subpar winters historically is, are the reasonings similar or are there glaring differences? For example, (as mentioned earlier), if our snowfall is more correlated to precipitation versus temperature and historically, our subpar winters occurred with winter which were abnormally dry, but our subpar winters now are occurring with average-to-above average precipitation, well then there clearly is a differentiator. Where subpar winters historically connected to periods of faster flow aloft, lack of storms, suppression, etc.

If people are upset with the pattern and how things have done so far then they should be hoping for this break IMO. If this pattern sucks as some say...well the best way to get out of that is to break it and thats what we would be doing towards the end of the month. But I don't see anything signaling we flip to prolonged riding. But...I will say, I don't think it can totally be tossed out. Let's say the Arctic becomes unfavorable and we get a stronger PV that contracts...we open the flood gates for the jet to retract northward and get a milder, zonal flow across the country. Not saying that happens but it was a concern I had a few months back based on how the PAC had looked.

We were bound to get some ridging and warmer temperatures at some point. That doesn't mean winter is done or winter is over.

The good news is any ridging that period should be short-lived and looks like the pattern is re-loading as well. Maybe in some way this will help set things up more favorably moving into January.

I think this goes to show that even ensembles have their biases and limitations. At that range, it's all we really have but these patterns we have been in, sometimes smoothing and just averaging isn't really going to tell the true story. But at that range...nothing else we can really do or utilize so just have to roll with it and proceed with caution.

Looks fine to me...even around MA Pike

I was hoping to see some CAPE modeled

That's the thing too...there are way too many products out there (which are not even NCEP products, just derived products from 3rd party vendors) which everyone flocks too and leads to unnecessary hype and unrealistic expectations. This includes snow maps, precipitation type maps, supercell composite parameter, significant tornado parameter, etc. If snow maps were never created, probably 85% of extended storms would garner little interest outside of the, "Oh look the GFS has an HECS at D10". Now, folks see a 8 day 24 HR snow map which 20-30 inches and all of a sudden, "there's a real threat". Same goes with severe...so many events in the midwest now are labeled with having potential to produce numerous tornadoes and strong/violent tornadoes because STP is forecast to be 5 or SCP is forecast to be 20.

Snowfall though is generally more tied into precipitation departures versus temperature departures at our latitude...though there are exceptions to this too. Right now we are in a snow drought cycle so correlations will be weaker, but once we get back on track for a several year stretch, you will notice the correlation to snowfall is quite high with regard to precipitation anomalies versus temperature.

But that's just the thing...fast flows are unlikely to leas to numerous moderate events and even minor ones seem difficult to come by and are typically regulated to either far interior or elevation (depending on thermal profile). But this is the point I am getting at which Ray alluded too. We keep putting hope in these will work out but there are meteorological reasons (which Ray pointed out) which explain why that more often than not, they just aren't going to work out. I also don't necessarily think its a concept of letting the past cloud our judgement in the present, but more of a product of better understanding the atmosphere and how it works. Think of how many forecasts there have been these last few winters with maps getting tossed out 3 days in advance with big calls and everyone getting hyped up over amped solutions...then well inside the 3 days the models back off and all of a sudden snowfall maps are being lowered and lowered...right up to the day of the storm. Understanding this type of regime and the bias to amp in the medium range, as a forecaster, you would develop a sense of playing it more safe versus going aggressive, knowing there is a decent chance the models back off. But historically a slower pattern with less energy does yield much higher odds and probabilities. This holds true during the severe season too (out west). When you have troughs digging across the Plains but with tons of shortwaves...that tends to lead to destructive interference and hinder what appears to be an environment favorable for numerous supercells and tornadoes (because STP/SCP are off the charts) and the forecasts busts.

I get it...100% and believe me...I'm pissed off too. But there comes a point where expectations versus reality become blended and that's when expectations start becoming well...unrealistic. And this is where for the most part, some people are kind of doing it to themselves by getting suck into guidance which goes bonkers in the medium range and developing a sense as that is a possible expectation. And then marrying extended EPS charts because they show deep blues at H5 and correlating that to potential and expecting active times. It sucks...we're in a cycle in which it just sucks here but we will break out of it eventually...have some phenomenal years for a several year stretch and then revert back to this.

Yeah its way too early to be cancelling anything. I mean what's climo right now...probably ranging from 2-5" and of course probably even under 2" closer towards the coast. Not having snow on the ground on Dec. 9 doesn't mean winter is cancelled or winter will be bad.

Makes total sense...that's along the lines of what I was figuring you were getting at.

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996.

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

you're right. January 5th is the latest sunrise (~7:19 AM) then it gets earlier from there. Its like the 10th/11th when we start gaining by the minutes