weatherwiz

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week

This deserves post of the year

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

How bout 726 hr

I retired from drinking 40's of Steel Reserve

I was just rip and reading the GFS lol. But I just happened to look at the Euro...what a difference. anyways I am with you, I think the extent of the ridging we've been seeing will end up getting muted (though we probably still end up on the milder side).

Gotta say...for that Christmas period, it is getting a bit more difficult to find any potential to wedge at the surface. The position of the sfc low would favor deep southwesterly flow across the eastern third of the country. Doesn't look like there is any room for a high to our north or northeast.

Right...2-4" does so much to the morale. The 4" I got last week was perfect. It really sucks things haven't worked out as well in this pattern. You get 3-4 events which produce even 2-4" and they just add up quick.

Well I guess if there is any consolation, it goes to show what we could have if we can get one of these to work out

Speaking of fluff factor, there's going to be some awesome ratios within the Ohio Valley tonight. Might see upwards of 20:1!!!

IMO, there's alot more that needs to happen than just trending west but I am also not necessarily sold on some of the recent trends we have seen with the ridging and better interaction of the two energies...we've seen this happen plenty of times of late where within this time range (3-5 days) there are these subtle shifts which trend better. I suspect by 12z Friday we will begin to see a trend back in the opposite direction with the heights in the west and energy interaction. Also, even with the better interaction of energies, the upper level dynamics still aren't very favorable for low pressure development at the sfc...we have to look closer to where the baroclinic zone is present to get some llvl spinup present and I think its just too far south to do any good for us. But that said, at least snow showers are still possible farther east.

probably more so a few hundred miles but we always play the "what if" game with these things A heck of alot more needs to happen than just tweaking the interaction between the two energies

Would be nice and I hope that happens but all of these "nice trends" are going to have to happen upwards of several hundred miles farther west. Not very likely to get that at this stage

start digging the trough farther west towards Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois then maybe there is a chance. Otherwise the most favored spot for sfc low development is still way too south to give us anything outside of some snow showers.

Correct Put me on record as to saying this is a nada for everyone but maybe enough to get some stray snow showers, particularly east

It's a race between when we get our next region wide crippling ice storm and a cat 3 hurricane

definitely possible...the BL may be a bit torched down that way.

Agreed. They are closer to the llv baroclinic zone and also more in line with the RR of the jet

ehhh its too much of a big if. I mean there has to be some sort of reasoning or some clue to provide evidence that would be possible. I think this one is done. Even with a better interaction of the closed low and trough, the profile just scream cyclogenesis and the low-level baroclinic zone is way too far south. By the time diffluence starts developing aloft...its way too late and sfc low doesn't get going until well east. Our best shot IMO is getting that baroclinic zone farther north and working with llvl magic. I don't think that ridge in the west is going to have much influence on anything versus just getting a better interaction with the two energies...but that alone isn't or won't be enough. All of this would start to have to occur several hundred miles west.

Looks like the closed low digs into the base of the trough much better this run but ultimately, aloft doesn't appear too conducive for sfc low development

Santa having to go down the chimney straight into the basement?

Sure does If you live in Bloomington, IL

Absolutely something to keep in mind. Like dendrite said...this could easily turn into an overrunning pattern. Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the H5 charts but the sfc may not always connect. Remember back in like 2017(?) the Great Plains were under like 560 heights and it was widespread single digits at the sfc lol because they had that stout Arctic high.

along with scattered rain showers

Might see a Christmas Day severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi/Ohio Valley if this keeps up