weatherwiz

what's this accumulated supercell energy products or whatever they're called that are going around?

Yeah looking at mesoanlysis there definitely is a second weak feature about to slide through the region. Satellite does appear hopeful that perhaps we clear some behind that passage but I am worried that a combination of very cold mlvl temps + residual mlvl moisture is going to result a continuing of building cloud over. But maybe we transform from more stratus to more cumulus like

Very thick overcast making it pretty dark. Kind of reminds me of those gloomy January days when its dark out at 3:30 because of the thick overcast and sun already nearing the horizon

Looks like we miss out on at least some isolated thunderstorms tomorrow night...looks to be back over PA. Looks to be associated with the approaching warm front and some decent lapse rates/elevated instability. Nice theta-e ridge too. Maybe some upslope snows though for the southern Greens?

Pretty frosty out there this morning

AWT

maybe even kill off some ticks Reminds me of a few Aprils ago (or maybe it was early May) but we had that dome of well below average 925/850mb temps overhead and yet we where still putting out ~ average.

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall

That would be a giant FU

I feel like we're going to be saying a lot of "GWDLs" next week. Sucks for those who live in doom and gloom zones. Monday sucks for all but the remainder of the week doesn't seem to terrible for us

Briefly looked into it but I don't think my girlfriend would swing that and with the Bruins playing Sunday I don't want to risk having something come up and miss any of the game. Unless I was looking wrong the prices were insane.

Hoping its more scattered showers but QPF signal is decent right now. But just showers is going to cause probably 10 accidents and unless I do a different route, form 95 a good part of the trip will be the Merritt. Unless I just do 95 to like New Haven then shoot up 91. sun is definitely going to be needed. But I think we should end up being fine...we'll have a chance to climb before we start clouding over. 50's is going to suck versus 70's and 80's but it would be worse (It will be worse for some though where there are only 40's)

If you compare to this week yeah it will suck but the upcoming stretch doesn't look terrible by any means. Different tune though for those probably closer to the coast but nothing abnormal for April really. We should at least climb to average most days or in that ballpark.

Driving down to Long Island tomorrow evening for a wedding on Saturday (I'm the best man!). Not looking forward to driving back in rain on Sunday. Might try and leave early in the morning or sleep in a bit and leave before checkout...but it depends on what time the Bruins game ends up being. Hate driving in rain...probably be like 20 accidents. At least it will be daylight

Gotta watch exactly where that boundary ends up because we may see some transient supercells along it

wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado today anywhere from central VT through central NH

AWT

Playoff hockey! Nothing like it

ahhh yes, today is the 15th. I'm a day off

0z GFS will be getting into May!!!

should be good down into CT too

starting to pop some convection. HRRR/RRFS have hinted at something popping around Springfield/BDL around this time

Glad we don't have to worry about that

That's some pretty impressive elevated instability by the NAM overnight. Even the latest HRRR is pretty solid. Think we want to watch for whether we can sneak into the northern edge of the steep lapse rate plume which should at least graze the coast. Regardless, still decent elevated instability but could be looking at something along the lines of 500-800 J versus upwards of 1500+ if we can get into those steeper lapse rates. Perhaps some risk for large hail?

Yeah that was frustrating the heck out of me. Had two phones in my hand because I was taking some video in the event the winds got real so wasn't able to easily switch tilts to try and sample a bit higher up. I wish we could get a TDWR at BDL