weatherwiz

Do you know if there are discussions within the NWS about a potential future of probabilistic warnings? I am currently taking a Weather and Society class (which is extremely interesting) which involves reading alot of research papers. I guess there has been some work and studies done about probabilistic tornado warnings, where you have your deterministic warning polygon but within the polygon is color coded probabilities of being directly impacted by the tornado. I have many mixed emotions about anything probabilistic in terms of public communication, especially with something like warnings but the results of such studies are actually a bit intriguing in that they may help influence (positively) people's decision making and action taken. Would the NWS ever consider such approach?

Yeah, I'm just not sure how much I buy it. We've seen plenty of times, especially early in the season where guidance gets way too coastal happy. I'll say though, I am not looking forward to Fall or Winter weather forecasting. I don't think this has gotten the proper attention this deserves but the reduction in balloon launches I think is going to have severe negative impacts on models and forecasting. In fact, we've even seen it this summer. There have been multiple instances where local NWS offices in the central Plains/Midwest and I think even from SPC where they noted the reduction in launches having a significant impact on even short-term severe forecasting. I know we have better equipment and technology from satellites but balloon launches are still a critical part in the modeling process.

Both Euro and GFS OP want to develop some sort of low along the stalled front later in the week. Ensembles have some signal on this too. Could at least be something beneficial in terms of rain for eastern areas. But its almost not even worth looking at anything 5-7 days out anymore

I'll say...it was very weird last week wearing a Pats jersey on the couch while wearing shorts and not jeans. Will be even more weird on September 29 if I'm wearing a Bruins jersey with shorts. In fact, depending on which jersey I'm wearing I may not even need pants because a few of them are game replicas so on the longer side.

The potential is certainly there to be quite above average and this is the time of year (along with spring) where one needs to be extremely careful with using model 2M temperature output to forecast temperatures. I mean I don't think this is as big of an issue in our region but you look at the midwestern states this time of year and model 2M temps (and MOS) can bust 10-20F too low. Anyways, the look has the potential to be quite warm, however, I think there is going to be potential for more "blocky" or BDCF risk moving into the second half of the month. The other thing we're starting to see too is with stronger shortwaves coming down from Canada, that upper-level ridge which has been locked in since July is starting to get beat up. That GFS "cold blast" which DT was probably referring too I think is just typical extended range GFS overblown crap but we'll probably end up seasonal for temps...and maybe a bit below if we get the BDCF riddled pattern

We'll have to see if anything develops. It's been humorous at times with the GFS and its fantasy canes even some other long-range guidance at times trying to develop stuff...almost like because "there has to be something". Even this I think is way overdone. What I think could happen though is there may be brief periods of small geo-spatial areas where conditions are favorable and if a wave hits these areas it might form into something but any life span is going to be very short-lived.

Just sat down with some pizza and was going to do some reading or a lecture video but this is more fun. Fight time LFG!!!!!!

I don't think I could make it to Thanksgiving but seems like I could go for a while. Probably could get by with shorts and a light long-sleeved shirt.

Curious to see how long I can go wearing shorts. It was chilly outside last evening with shorts and short-sleeve shirt but at least there were no mosquitos!

You know what's funny... In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

Thank you. Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

Just taking that [temperature] map from face value, I would take that as just a massive flood of PAC air into North America but the structure of those temperature anomalies I think can be the product of two scenarios: 1. A configuration in which Arctic air is displaced well south (akin to a +PNA/-AO combo) 2. Those colder anomalies in the south are the product of extensive clouds and precipitation, so the anomalies are more of a product of diurnal departures versus the result of a pattern favoring colder air displaced south. If that product is showing extreme cold departures on the other side of the hemisphere, then I would absolutely believe scenario 2. Now, obviously, at our latitude even slightly above temperatures can be fine for snow. So I'm not stating we'll be snowless...but it just adds another difficulty we'd have to contend with. But...the structure of the precipitation anomalies, sort of indicates to me increased potential for cyclogenesis off the SE coast...I'd take chances with bringing storms up the coast and just hoping we can get a far enough offshore storm track and pull in some cold. As you know, a "furnace" in southeast Canada does not mean lack of "cold"

That is an awfully pathetic look. Is there a global shot for that? I wonder if much of the Arctic cold will end up being displaced on the other side of the hemisphere. Going to take some well-timed airmasses here to really have a good chance to cash in

Should be a fairly widespread heavy rain tomorrow. Increasing LLJ across the region with a strong surge of higher theta-e air advecting in. Pretty well defined 700 warm front too moving across the region

Looks like the ridge is finding a new home just in time for winter

I mean all you have to do is look at previous strong EL Nino episodes...they all (I'd presume) had very low ACE seasons. The EL Nino's of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 only had seasonal numbers in the single digits. 2015-2016 I think was a bit higher but still below the climatological average

What a night. Endless alcohol not cool not hot

Today is spectacular. Headed to my nieces for a BBQ after work...going to be lovely outside. Gotta soak up these days while we have them. Soon enough they will become few and far between until they gone until next year

it is quite cool if bit in the sun. Welcome to Fall y’all

Sun out here and it feels good in the sun but quite cool if not in the sun. We'll see how long the sun last though before clouds start developing

Sometimes forecasting is hard and a PITA. Sometimes its easy. in the case of this weekend, all you had to do was see the giant cold pool drifting southeast across the region

lots of fires incoming once leaves fall

It will happen well before 2:00 tomorrow

For sure. While I've been a huge negative on the AI side of things, I do think they are going to provide value but so long as they are used properly. Unfortunately though, we're also going backwards with a lot of the changes done within the field. The lack of weather balloon launches I think too has been extremely detrimental to forecasting, particularly short-term. Once we, if we, get to the point of quantum computing we will see substantial strides forward with modelling and forecasting.

Taker told Mick he was out of his mind when Mick told him to do it. Taker refused at first but Mick was insistent