weatherwiz

Figured why not. Anyways, unless you're close to the llvl fronto, I don't see much in the way to assist with QPF blossoming moving poleward from the developing llvl fronto band. As was stated, there could be some dry air concerns on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield and with some strengthening evidence for a more pronounced llvl fronto band, I do think there could be some room for subsidence skunking. I could see 3-5" across Long Island and probably some amounts in that range too possibly along the south coast. It's really the south coast at this point which has room for anything exceeding 2". Where stronger lift can occur will benefit from the ratios. But overall I see a pretty bland looking precipitation area outside of right where the llvl fronto is

You might have to worry about some llvl subsidence on that north of Long Island (minus maybe the south coast (don't know why I said Cape Cape)

Wondering if maybe the GFS was a tad overdone with QPF in those areas. You get this random spike north with some of the higher QPF into the south coast but I mean I guess that is feasible. But its all going to come down to how much lift can be generated. This sounding looks pretty decent actually but IDK...I think any stronger lift is going to be more localized and with that it will be hard to sustain any kind of rates to readily accumulate, even with higher ratios. That's what is going to kill here...the overall rates are going to be very light and without the higher lift you still aren't going to produce great dendrites...except in the pockets of greater lift.

I'm definitely over it, just nothing fun about it.

I feel cautiously optimistic for the post Christmas period (or maybe even around)...but saying this I also feel I'm setting myself up to fall into the cycle of "pattern looks good early Dec, delayed to after the 10th, delayed to around Christmas, delayed until after New Years). But the overall regime does look like it will relax some which would put us very close to that battle ground of warmer temperatures to the south and colder temperatures nearby. You always have to watch though for cutters which makes me a bit nervous. I am just going into this with no expectations really. All possibilities have nearly an equal chance of happening right now.

I think the northern extent for anything accumulating beyond a coating will be Long Island and maybe extreme southern RI. The DGZ is certainly very deep and the potential for ratios to be great (>15:1) are high, however, we will need to at least generate enough lift into the DGZ (which is thankfully low) but just don't see that happening. Yeah I know the famous if's...if x does this or y does that but maybe most will at least see a coating but there is the risk for alot of virga (think Will said) so we'll have to rely on localized areas of stronger lift so it's possible many struggle to even get a coating

Yearn for warmth...it will be cold

Could get some snow showers Monday night, maybe even squalls which could drop a quick coating to an inch

I'm sure there will be a passing game for just snow showers

At least this GIF is festive Looks like the color changing Christmas Lights people hang outside

The GFS/Euro for the second half of the week across the country are not even on the same planet lol. Not sure if its because the GFS has some cut off energy held in the deep South but it's absolutely insane how different they are.

That model needs a lot of work

My stance is by 12z runs tomorrow any guidance that was ticking more “favorable” will revert back leaving an outcome of just some snow showers. Maybe someone gets a coating

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry Send him my best

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning.

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down

I have the gaps in the data in a notebook that Will posted way back in the day and some stuff from Ryan too for BDL. It just sucks you check the records online and you either have no data or incorrect. Just think of the discrepancies it elicits. Like if you go check BDL on threadex for 1995-1996...it only has BDL like 106" or something versus 115.2" or 116.2" (forgot what it is).

that data gap is so stupid. It pisses me off everytime I look at snowfall data.

there is almost a better shot at getting severe weather on May 31 than there is a white Christmas

I was just looking at that This is phenomenal work. Incredible job to all involved in this.

most exciting weather upcoming will be the landslides in the PAC NW next week

This deserves post of the year

nahhh otherwise Metfan would have spammed us with 8000 images from the JMA by now

How bout 726 hr

I retired from drinking 40's of Steel Reserve