weatherwiz

My guess is this ends up being something flatter which would benefit most in the Ptype department but I don’t think you’d be looking at any beefy totals. Probably borderline warning criteria for some towns. I mean which is still great for early Dec…but you’ll see a lot of disappointed people in the totals because they didn’t live up to clown map expectations

I doubt its coming in this amped. Not even going to have any serious thoughts on this until Sunday morning or early afternoon.

Looks like 18z gfs going to be quite amped...shocker.

What differences between the GFS/Euro for next weekend GFS is like a carbon copy of the forecast for Tuesday, meanwhile the Euro looks more like a re-developing clipper with not much srn stream going on. But the two models aren't even on the same planet with how 500 looks across the country

getting snow flurries here!

Yup...more than likely the future...and then society is doomed once this stuff crashes because nobody is ever going to be taught basic understandings, principles, and concepts anymore (talking beyond weather here) and taught "how to build a model or algorithm" and things crash...nobody is going to know what to do because they don't have a computer telling them how.

There are definitely alot of factors. But if you're still producing scenarios where solutions are inconsistent on a run-to-run basis and you have all sorts of jumping around, then what is the value in there? Unless like Ray said, "its used as another tool". But then all its doing is more than likely increasing uncertainty, not decreasing it.

That AI model stuff is such a waste of resources. But some storm will happen that an AI run "nailed at D10" (even though it jumped around a million times inbetween) and parades are being conducted and research papers flying saying "AI is the next thing".

I would wager we see the GFS tone down a bit as we get closer. I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw some other guidance even trend towards the GFS, only for guidance to back down Sunday evening.

Been weird though because the GFS has underdone some significant differences with H5 evolution. It's also been trending stronger with that trailing shortwave which maybe is acting to amp it up a bit? We're also kind of entering the time period where the GFS seems to have a bias towards this regard. Wouldn't be surprised to see it backed off some Saturday or even Sunday.

The only thing I think Scott tossed was just the snow maps.

That's right...when was he coming back again, Early Dec?

Unrelated but should be a nice hefty band of heavy snow that materializes and gets Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and probably even Chicago. Smack in the middle of the day too...travel will be a nightmare out that way.

One big difference too between this year (at this time) compared to the last several years is water temperatures off the coast aren't as warm. Maybe not a huge deal now, but if we keep getting these pushes of colder air, this could be something to help drive the baroclinic zone a bit farther south and east than we've seen lately. Maybe instead of seeing lows go bonkers inland in the southeast or mid-Atlantic that happens farther east either along or just off the coast.

This will probably really crank under the heaviest banding, but outside of the heaviest banding it may be quite a struggle. I would presume that overall snowgrowth zone will be relatively high and majority of the lift is going to be centered within the 925-800mb layer. So if you're under the heaviest banding...it's going to rock. But not under the banding, it will be a totally different story.

All things aside, both the Euro and GFS (at verbatim) would produce a pretty solid band of heavy snow. Way too early to really worry about the details and specifics. But in terms of potential snowfall amounts...it may be tough to get widespread warning criteria (maybe just barely warning snows but also depending on what's going on with the band and snowfall rates) due to how quickly it is moving but it's December 2nd and we're talking about potential for a large area to receive accumulating snow.

Gotta say...there are several who called for a flip to a more active pattern post Thanksgiving, and especially moving through the first week of December are looking good. Might not be much in the pipeline right behind this, however, the pattern is clearly transitioning to become more active in the upcoming weeks. All you can ask for right now.

This is comparing the 6z GFS to 0z GFS (but for same time) but these differences are pretty insane

I see the 6z GFS (at least) briefly get a double barrel low going. Tired of seeing those

Pretty solid ulvl divergence over the region. Love seeing where the 850 low begins to develop and track too. Would like to see a bit more consolidated vorticity field but I am intrigued and excited.

There are times when we can have a very solid idea looking 2-3-4 weeks out but I don't think this is one of those. There is just way too much going on and too many complexities, especially in the short term on how some of the subtle features evolve. Part of it too is we are still in the seasonal transition across the hemisphere and often times that can enhance the battles within the models. But I just want to get a favorable pattern moving through December and have cold air available. The brunt of the cold doesn't need to be over us and the cold doesn't necessarily need to be locked in. If we get a favorable storm track with cold air nearby...we will cash in (maybe not so much for coastal areas early on). Having cold air in place or even nearby means nothing if the storm track sucks.

Been thinking that all day, its had that look

yup...that could easily be overstated too.

A big problem is even when we seem to get good PAC setups we can't seem to get a favorable orientation of the ridge so what looks to be a +PNA I don't think is a true +PNA and with the orientation of the ridging it just results in a dump of cold and a trough into the West and the result in pumping the heights up out east...big problem to have, especially when the SE ridge is still a prominent player. We would either need to get some blocking to flatten it a big or hope for an active northern stream and keep dampening the ridge a bit. But let's see what happens across eastern Russia and Asia over the week. Right now you have the PV on that side of the hemisphere and you have lobes breaking off it and ejecting across the NPAC within the East Asian jet stream. Late this weekend the Euro breaks off a piece and it looks like this piece is slated to be a big player in how the pattern evolves By Thursday you have a major ridge bridge to the north with the energy significantly stronger and forced to remain south with a lead wave ahead of it This really helps to pump up a ridge downstream and helps aid in the amplification of that lead shortwave across the Northwest and a subsequent significant increase in the heights out in the East. My point in all this is just too illustrate how fickle guidance be be in the evolution of a pattern just from one piece. If such a piece never breaks off or is not as strong as advertised...that completely changes the game. The northern hemispheric flow is way too chaotic right now...its like a nascar track with too many drivers...so many drivers trying to set their lane and pace the field but everyone is competing to do the same thing. This makes it nearly impossible to have any idea of what to expect, until you start to see how these players in the 48-72 hour forecast actually look at 48-72 hours.

I could see NNE doing really well moving through Dec. But I'm holding out alot of hope on another SSW occurring. When you're looking for something to shake things up...that is something that can do it. Seeing how the stratosphere has evolved so far and some of the forecasts moving through the next few weeks...I think is a great signal. This opens the door for January and February. If December sucks then so be it...but if it does suck we better be seeing things starting to change...and I don't mean "10 days out stuff"...like actually physically ongoing changes