weatherwiz

The fluff factor has certainly been in the back of my mind too and I would generally go higher because of that, however, when looking at soundings, I am just not seeing much in the way of lift…and in order for us to maximize the ratio potential, we need lift!!

But glad snow on the shore isn't starting until overnight. Have to make a 2+ hour trip to Stamford from Springfield right now

We shall see. Watch there be a swath of totals ranging 6-8" from NJ across LI maybe even southern RI and SE MA and then some screw north of that. But there is only so much room north the fronto banding can get. These bumps north in QPF are models likely honing in on the fact that these bands usually end up a bit north than initially advertised so while bumping north with the max QPF, there is a whole shift north in the QPF field with no account for subsidence that would have to occur. If air is rising somewhere it needs to sink somewhere else at an equal intensity. We may see the immediate shoreline get into the heavier banding but that just means more of a struggle north of there

Correct, I think that is going to be a huge player here. Outside of that heavier banding signal, it's really difficult to find much in the way of lift. It just seems really weak to me, plus the concerns with subsidence. The stronger that fronto band ends up being, the greater the likelihood for subsidence north of it. I think everyone is going to see light snow, but north of the shoreline it's not going to amount to any more than a coating. There may be some localized 1'' amounts because there might be some brief, heavier pockets of lift moving through but I think its just a very steady light snow but very small flakes. The duration of the snow too will be difficult to really get widespread 1" totals north of the shoreline.

This looks very meh outside of the immediate CT shoreline, southern RI, and SE MA

flurries falling

Getting flurries

Have fun to all going today. Wish I didn't have something going on in Stamford later (that I paid for, otherwise I would have dropped). Hoping we can do a late winter or spring one

Well after looking over this morning made some tweaks and here are some thoughts/reasonings to go along I originally wanted to do the ranges as 2-4" and C-2" yesterday but there are certain ranges I hate doing (2-5" and C-2" are a few of them). Not that I make these forecasts or maps for anyone (outside of just posting for friends and here) but those ranges drive me nuts. I guess they're fine when doing a larger area but they still drive me nuts. I am still very cautious about how far north the fronto banding gets and for anything more than an inch of snow, it's going to be banding or bust. Under the banding, is where snow growth and ratios will be maximized with ratios upwards of 15:1 and maybe even 18:1 if the banding verifies even stronger. Caveat with this is, the stronger the banding, the greater the likelihood there will be some degree of subsidence north of the banding. Outside of the banding, snow growth and subsequent flake size will struggle. Under the banding you'll see the flat and fluffy dendrites, outside of the banding we'll see much smaller flakes size and the rates are going to be relatively meh and accumulation won't be sufficient (hence the Up to a coating). Radar is just going to be kind of putrid looking, except where the banding is. The other issue is going to be the speed - this won't be as much of a factor where the fronto evolves (but will make it difficult to get widespread totals > 5", but we're only looking at maybe 4-6 hours of snow with rates not even close to 1/2" per hour.

Figured why not. Anyways, unless you're close to the llvl fronto, I don't see much in the way to assist with QPF blossoming moving poleward from the developing llvl fronto band. As was stated, there could be some dry air concerns on the northern fringes of the precipitation shield and with some strengthening evidence for a more pronounced llvl fronto band, I do think there could be some room for subsidence skunking. I could see 3-5" across Long Island and probably some amounts in that range too possibly along the south coast. It's really the south coast at this point which has room for anything exceeding 2". Where stronger lift can occur will benefit from the ratios. But overall I see a pretty bland looking precipitation area outside of right where the llvl fronto is

You might have to worry about some llvl subsidence on that north of Long Island (minus maybe the south coast (don't know why I said Cape Cape)

Wondering if maybe the GFS was a tad overdone with QPF in those areas. You get this random spike north with some of the higher QPF into the south coast but I mean I guess that is feasible. But its all going to come down to how much lift can be generated. This sounding looks pretty decent actually but IDK...I think any stronger lift is going to be more localized and with that it will be hard to sustain any kind of rates to readily accumulate, even with higher ratios. That's what is going to kill here...the overall rates are going to be very light and without the higher lift you still aren't going to produce great dendrites...except in the pockets of greater lift.

I'm definitely over it, just nothing fun about it.

I feel cautiously optimistic for the post Christmas period (or maybe even around)...but saying this I also feel I'm setting myself up to fall into the cycle of "pattern looks good early Dec, delayed to after the 10th, delayed to around Christmas, delayed until after New Years). But the overall regime does look like it will relax some which would put us very close to that battle ground of warmer temperatures to the south and colder temperatures nearby. You always have to watch though for cutters which makes me a bit nervous. I am just going into this with no expectations really. All possibilities have nearly an equal chance of happening right now.

I think the northern extent for anything accumulating beyond a coating will be Long Island and maybe extreme southern RI. The DGZ is certainly very deep and the potential for ratios to be great (>15:1) are high, however, we will need to at least generate enough lift into the DGZ (which is thankfully low) but just don't see that happening. Yeah I know the famous if's...if x does this or y does that but maybe most will at least see a coating but there is the risk for alot of virga (think Will said) so we'll have to rely on localized areas of stronger lift so it's possible many struggle to even get a coating

Yearn for warmth...it will be cold

Could get some snow showers Monday night, maybe even squalls which could drop a quick coating to an inch

I'm sure there will be a passing game for just snow showers

At least this GIF is festive Looks like the color changing Christmas Lights people hang outside

The GFS/Euro for the second half of the week across the country are not even on the same planet lol. Not sure if its because the GFS has some cut off energy held in the deep South but it's absolutely insane how different they are.

That model needs a lot of work

My stance is by 12z runs tomorrow any guidance that was ticking more “favorable” will revert back leaving an outcome of just some snow showers. Maybe someone gets a coating

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry Send him my best

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning.

December can have some biggies but that also shows that March used to be just as snowy, if not snowier than December. I'm sure the BDL average for March the past 10-15 years has went down