weatherwiz

Will feel like summer

Challenge is the schedule has been absolutely insane with the league having to adjust for the two week break. Maybe play him every other game or something. But with the way the D has been crushed with injuries I don’t think they can afford to have him just play 10-15 minutes a game

Agreed

I don’t think Mcavoy should be coming back this soon, but I think he is trying to get a spot on the Olympic team. But he lost 20 pounds and I don’t think is still able to eat solid food. I can’t see him being able to play the 23:46 he’s averaging a game.

I hope getting this cold out of the way now means that we warm up late February or March otherwise this is going to be long and grueling.

Assuming the NHL has some private meteorologists, I’m sure they have their fingers crossed looking at this and are rooting for a GFS like solution for New Years. Who schedules outdoor hockey games in southern Florida? Idk if it’s January.

Don’t care when it happens but I hope the pattern does relax some and reloads. But watch the time period of when/if this occurs because that could offer up a KU chance. As to what happens after the re-load…who knows but apply some tweaks to this pattern and we could be in for some times in January

I love the Winter Storm Watches that get hoisted in the midwestern states for 1-2" of snow with winds gusting 50-70 mph. That has to be epic

If this piece of PV energy that's closed off could even dig into the base of the trough just a tick earlier this would allow for LP to explode just south of Long Island. Might actually be some room to get the Cape a decent whack out of this

Our best chance for something bigger later this month is hoping for any PV lobes to phase in with the northern stream. Just picking a random time frame just to illustrate but the PV is forecast to become quite large which will benefit us in the since that every now and then we'll get pieces of PV lobes tossed our way. But I feel like overall we need to weaken the PV and that may help relax the flow a bit. But there is also extremely uncertainty with how the AO evolves the second half of this month

Someone could probably do better from weatherbell or something but this is from weathermodels (don't see of anyway you can just select frames like you can on cod) and this goes way too quickly lol. Anyways, there are subtle differences between the Euro and GFS (GFS a bit more amplified with the ridge) but the subtle differences have a significant impact on the evolution. This is precisely why these patterns are extremely difficult to forecast in. The most subtle of differences can mean the difference between a 4-8" event and a C-2" lol.

I just hope its right but the models have struggled greatly within this domain.

I guess this is the feature to watch over the next day or two (Coming out of the Aleutians). How this evolves in the next 48 hours will likely tell us whether the ridge will amplify or not

I think the framework the follow up wave sets up is way more important than worrying about whatever the ridge in the West will do. This how the west ridging will unfold game the last few years has done absolutely nothing. We've countless times seen models trend well with that inside 96-120 hours...only for a total slap back in the other direction, even inside 72 hours. I am willing to bet by 12z guidance Wednesday, we see guidance scale back with that ridging.

The good news is the Euro has been pretty consistent with the wave moving from the northern Plains across the Great Lakes region in the Thursday-Friday timeframe (its wavered with timing) but its been dead consistent since Friday. This wave is important because, while it may not do anything for us, it likely sets the stage for the "potential" with that follow up wave for the weekend.

Our only hope of amplifying the ridge across the West for that mid-month period is if it connects with the ridging over Alaska. But dating back to even the last few years, we have seen countless times models in the extended range want to develop these beautiful ridges in the West only for it to either not verify, or its duration was too short to have any meaningful influence downstream. Something has to change within the background state for this to actually happen, not just "the EPS wants to do this at xxxx time"). It's pretty unfortunate but the pattern is setup to favor weak clippers and shredded garbage. But for some reason...it must be something within the model physics we keep seeing these tendencies to overamplify things within a specific time range (and I even fell for this with last nights potential). But people will keep falling for it and trying to come up with ways to justify as to why "it needs to be watched".

Probably ended up with anywhere from 1/4” to 1/2” of snow.

Yup. There is nothing wrong with several 3-5" type ordeals. And we see plenty of potential for that on guidance. If anyone is just looking for 8-12"+ storms all the type...they're going to be disappointed 99% of the time. I believe BDL is already at average or even slightly above for the season...and its only Dec 5. I don't remember off-hand what BDL's average Dec snow is but I don't think its any more than 5 or 6". Another one of these 2-3" storms for them in the next 26 days and it was an average month.

This is also where patience is required and remembering climo. As I stated earlier, if you have a favorable pattern, you need to cash it. Whether that is early winter, meat of winter, or late winter. If you were to look at average to above average seasons, its almost 100% likely we cashed in during those favorable periods. But I mean, for the most part its like early January into early March where our climo really is. I mean look at Boston...was it 2014-2015? they went into February below average and pulled off what like 100" in 6 weeks? There other component to this is, I think the term "favorable" pattern is really becoming overplayed. Let's be serious, the batting average on these "favorable" patterns the last several years is so low that it makes Conner Wong's average look HOF worthy. I think there's been way too much stock and emphasis on the EPS these last several winters and using that to make bold statements and claims. Obviously, when looking medium and extended, EPS is your friend...there really isn't any other tool. But I think the EPS has to be taken with less weight in these pattern regimes. Because of the smoothing of the EPS its making patterns probably look better than they really are. They are just smoothing out the chaos and its the chaos in these fast flows which is acting as the inhibitor.

Trying to garner trends of precipitation and something like snow cover to influences of CC is nearly impossible to do because of the variability involved. The better metric is trying to determine how CC has influenced the larger scale oscillations, ENSO, Hadley Cell, etc and how weather patterns are behaving now versus earlier in the record books. Now, you can argue the smaller scale phenomena (precipitation, snow cover) is a product of the pattern, however, not every similar pattern is going to produce similar outputs. Not every trough digging into the East during the winter is going to elicit a major winter storm, not every trough digging across the West and progressing into the Plains in late May is going to yield a 5/3/99 or April 0f 2011.

You know what we should have done like 10-15 years ago. Got a group and rented a cabin or something in the middle of nowhere during a major snowstorm. Just imagine how fun that would have been

yeah there isn't anything fun about this at all, unless it is actually physically snowing out. The snow on the ground makes the landscape all cool and all but it does nothing to help with 0F temperatures. If its 90 with a HI of 105 in the summer, you can still at least be outside, even if its just sitting in the shade, or in the pool, or pool side. Who really is going outside to "chill" in a lawn chair with a beer at 0f?

No worries. I would have chosen this over what I'm doing but it's something I already paid for lol. I know last year we briefly discussed an early spring one but never got to it. Maybe late January we can throw a thread up with some dates for March or April

This is a true statement. Doesn't matter if its early December, mid-February, or early March...if the pattern is favorable you need to cash in. It's like sports and lets say baseball...its a long season but if you aren't winning the games you need to in April or May, those losses will come back to bite you come late September.

Hopefully this is the coldest weather of the system. We can still get snow and not have it be 0. You know when it's cold when there is steam emitting from the dog poop.