weatherwiz

Anyways at least this looks like a good solid regionwide 3-6" event. Don't want anyone interpret the discussion of the mid-levels meaning this is cooked lol. Just moreso trying to gauge what's the upper ceiling we're working with here

That's the direction I am leaning towards. I've spent the past hour just looking at anything and everything relating to storm evolution and it's really difficult to come to a conclusion that the mid-levels develop in time to really produce. If it does happen...this is going to be a big overperformer and I would still expect that to be within the CT River Valley...but just not seeing enough to bite and expect it will happen.

Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region

They are in a tough spot with Panarin because if they end up moving him to a team he prefers, that could cut back the return. If he wants say Florida or Colorado the Rangers would be screwed. Mika will be difficult to move in-season. Curious to see what 18z HRRR has specifically for early morning. I think Scott mentioned this but there is def signal for a band of heavy snow early in the morning

My guess will be Lohrei 2026 1st Rounder (Boston's not Toronto's) If there is an extension involved then you probably see someone like Lysell added in

This is really such a tough forecast, I'm becoming quite optimistic but this could still go either way. Outside of eastern areas really, we're relying heavily on the mid-levels evolving. If they don't really crank...that puts a huge damper moving west across the region into the interior.

What a weekend this will be Snow overperformed here today Bruins go for their 6th consecutive win tonight Going to get maybe several inches of snow tomorrow Pats/Texas Bruins likely acquiring Rasmus Andersson Bring it all baby...wrap me up in the goodies

yup...and I think that could end up being pretty damn close to the CT River Valley. The euro really impressed me and for as much as I discounted the AIs its time to take the consistency they've had seriously and factor into the forecast

Great 700mb fronto and deep DGZ into central Mass. Perfect recipe

The impact of the profile farther east would be on the ratios...that snow is going to be quite heavy and wet and I could certainly see some concerns for scattered power outages. One thing I'll say too about tomorrow (and this is a big plus for everyone) is that DGZ is very deep (similar to today), it will not take much lift to really produce good dendrites and that will be a big player where you have the colder profile. I think there is going to be a zone of 8-12" somewhere which will be the max jackpot and I think that could end up being the CTRV...there will be a secondary jackpot of about 6-9" somewhere in eastern MA with totals lowered due to the wetter snow.

I would not be surprised if guidance is too warm tomorrow, even without the lack of high to the north. Going to be thick in overcast and little mixing.

Up to 2.5" here.

This is nuts...this is by far and away the best and heaviest snow of the season so far.

I will take back my comments...this has definitely peaked my interest. I think moving forward, if AI camps are steadfast and the traditional models are wavering and we have model-to-model inconsistency...well its a no brainer in which camp to lean in

You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate

Looks like the heavier banding would even get back to the CT River?

coming down pretty good here with excellent snow growth. looks like a snowglobe outside

Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps and then creating a forecast

Probably get a nice CCB that goes bonkers just in time to get the Cape. Going to be a heavy, wet snow there

Looks like the 12z is curling the vort a bit more at 33hr compared to 6z...maybe even 0z

Yup...have to give credit where credit is due and this truly ends up being the case that is a major win in the AI camp and maybe even builds some confidence moving forward in which camp to follow should we see significant discrepancies between AI and traditional modeling. Now, that doesn't mean the results would be the same moving forward but this is a big confidence boost

This applies for for western areas as I do think eastern Mass/Cape stand a good chance for several inches of snow but I have major reservations about how much farther west appreciable QPF gets. I would like to see better dynamics overall to validate this. For example, on the ICON...I think that western edge would be nothing more than just some snow showers with putrid snow growth. Probably going to be an eastern Mass event with the cutoff back west to maybe around ORH

Back when the OV was getting that barrage of clippers there were multiple times that model was bringing good snows through Chicago while most other guidance was well south and Chicago ended up getting nada

That model gives me a headache