weatherwiz

Think about it too like during the summer, we've had some summers where we've seen to get cold fronts to always come through around the same day each week, especially when the pattern isn't deviating much.

they don't, it's just how the spacing of storms/track work sometimes. I agree...theoretically the day of the week doesn't matter at all

Not discounting it...I think it makes a lot of sense as to why there likely is a correlation between certain weather events and day of week and even day of year. Weather systems generally (And I use this term a bit loosely) move through the flow at a specific speed as do ridge/trough propagation. If you look back at our historic periods, most of the big storms during them all tended to fall on or around the same date...like remember 2015 or maybe it was 2013...it was every Wednesday.

If the Leprechaun was perceived to yield more snow people would believe that too

I was thinking Wednesday that outside of wherever that narrow band of snow sets up probably consists of some very light periods of sleet or freezing drizzle but should be extremely low impact

I have to wonder how much of an influence the reduced balloon launches are having on the model uncertainty. I was looking at the 12z launches the other day and couldn't believe the lack of observations. This has to be having an impact. Tagging @Typhoon Tip because I'm really interested in his thoughts on this.

I'd be wary of the gradient setting up farther north versus south on this. There should be a pretty solid narrow, elongated axis of heavy snow though. Even some hints at a bit of a MAUL on some soundings

Ride the train of storms and just hope you end up on the right side of any boundary that may reside within the region. Certainly plenty of potential moving through the second half of the month. Someone is going to cash in the poker chips

Like 6 weeks and a few days and the 798hr CFS will be out to May 1

Definitely a bit intriguing overnight and some of the 12z guidance so far...certainly enough to put the south coast in game for a few inches potentially

If that first low can help set the stage for the subsequent systems I'd sacrifice that being more of a mix or even rain.

Transitions from Nina to Nino usually good in the severe department too

You'll like this. My professor last night posted a video discussion relating the assessment of teleconnections to medium-range forecasting and using teleconnections to help weed through models to sort of help differentiate the more likely from least likely solutions. He looked at some guidance over the past week...first using guidance from last weekend and comparing their evolutions and whether any made sense given the teleconnection background. This really made me think of your post yesterday when you stated you're not sure why some don't use teleconnections and it's absolutely true. Understanding the current background state and what may influences the structural changes moving forward can give one an added confidence boost in how the medium range may evolve, even when their is high model uncertainty. Having strong fundamentals in this can help a forecast weed out the least likely guidance from the more likely guidance. This is kind of like generating an ensemble in ones mind because you can take the guidance which seems most likely and bundle together in a sense

That would absolutely be a wild card but I think its more likely the TPV is going to end up on the other side of the hemisphere

Yup...once you get into about mid February through mid March the swings can be pretty enormous. It's unlikely any one pattern regime truly dominates for more than several days just because of the changes which are going on within the hemisphere. In terms of temperatures and next week, I think its a very difficult signal. I think overall, the AO/NAO/PNA structure point towards more average to slightly above average...but that isn't a bad thing when talking about the potential for an increasingly active pattern. Some of our best snows and stretches come in that sort of regime.

The discussions here really take a tailspin late winter and late summer with either trying to rush the season or better yet, I think many posts get completely misinterpreted. As far as this final stretch of winter (lets say this next 6 weeks), of course we are going to have some days and periods where we get milder temperatures but that doesn't mean snow chances are done or we can't get colder periods (though probably not zero type stuff). Hell, we could get 3 days of 70F next week (not saying this is happening, making a point) and that still wouldn't mean we're done with snow chances. But when its discussed about warming temperatures or moderating temperatures, some just automatically take that as to meaning no more snow.

Should be an interesting ride the back half of February probably right into at least the first week of March. After about the second week of March or so I will be game to start looking for warmer weather. Until then lets pile it on

how far north cirrus gets

very generous!

Well you need to write a thesis statement of all the "ifs" that need to happen...chances are it isn't happening

This made me laugh too hard

I don't know if this is necessarily about bringing the storm more north as much as it is building a precipitation shield farther poleward due to better dynamics. That's probably something to watch for. There really is little to support the storm bumping north, however, if we can increase the dynamics a bit (with assistance from a better northern stream) we might be able to build some light precip into the region.

Nothing like that really. This is also probably more WOR. Someone though could probably pickup 1/2-1" or so.

I like the color blue

Kevin is right...there could be some snow showers (even some squalls tomorrow night) but a dry boundary layer might be an issue. That's a pretty potent shortwave diving southeast with very steep mid-level lapse rates