weatherwiz

It's been a while since we had one and the last few attempts didn't work out. I started the dates around mid-October since early October probably is too short notice (and selfishly I'll be away the first weekend of October and presenting at TriState Weather Conference the following week). I am hoping with some advanced lead time we can get a good gathering. I know November/December will also be difficult with holidays and I didn't put Halloween as an option as those with kids will probably be out getting candy.

I've read a bit on that event. That was some serious stuff in terms of global impact, particularly to the fishing industry and ocean life.

Well said. And like Scott was saying, you do need to be careful with just applying linear logic of just taking previous strong EL Nino events and "energizing them". We very well may see a winter which does not match well at all with any of the previous stronger events. Reason for this is our database on those is so small and they're so infrequent that there are scenarios that just have not occurred. I mean look at what's happened to how our understanding of ENSO has changed even in the last 20 years and this is because as the datasets grow we introduce more possibilities and outcomes.

The size of the +28C to +29C water temperatures within the Tropical Pacific is ridiculous. Even +20C off Mexico and into the Baja.

Adding on to my reply to Scott in your winter thread about the ridiculous graphic from the annoying guy and how some of the stuff he says doesn't seem to make sense. He is favoring increased winter threats in the deep South because the jet will be shifted south. I don't think that is totally true but I do know alot of generic stuff out there on EL Nino mentions this. I think there seems to be confusion out there on the different branches of the jet stream. The cooler/wetter patterns which plague the southern states during EL Nino I think is related a a stronger jet (which we all know) but its a stronger sub-tropical jet stream which can have the tendency to be displaced a bit further NORTH and its the cooler/more active track which plays a bigger role in the temperature anomalies. But its the stronger jet which is more critical versus the displacement. The polar jet also tends to be displaced further north, hence the lack of Arctic cold outbreaks penetrating south.

Agreed. The prospects for anything seem super slim...would need something to probably form along a stalled front...no waves are going to make it that far west, especially considering the shear should only continue strengthening through the MDR

Great stuff. I am curious as to what influence the northern Pacific will have on the Arctic domain this winter. Obviously the are backing off the vast -PDO regime we had been in, with help to the developing EL Nino but we are in unique territory regarding the state of the PDO. This is a situation where I don't think a raw numerical values tells the entire story here. Clearly we're heading towards more in the way of a +PDO structure but those absurdly warm anomalies from Japan across the north Pacific IMO still reflect which is by large a -PDO. Based on how the EL Nino has developed, combined with the state of the Pacific, my anticipation would be an significantly far north sub tropical jet this winter and once that is very juiced. Now, that is something that could bode well for us if the cards align but we'd also be talking about a raging jet and it may be very difficult to get surges of Arctic air to displace southwards. I would have to think we would need to see a -NAO/AO of historic territory to give any shot. Even if we did get a -NAO during the winter, it may not be much help and if anything could increase potential for warmth if its structured in a way where the above average heights connect with the jet and propels it even further north.

Can't believe I've missed 11 pages of this thread. So much of Ray's writings I have to catch up on. I was really hoping to have been able to divulge deeper into seasonal stuff by this winter but not the case. Hopefully I can for next winter.

yeah I don't get what all that hype and "doomsday" view on that was all about. At least IMO, a part of me believes too its part of the decline of the +AMO regime as we strive towards a -AMO regime.

I've never watched his severe coverage videos so I have no opinion on them. From what I've heard they're pretty great but I've seen a few of his YouTube videos and shorts that pop up when I'm browsing and they are not particularly good. Not sure if he is a met or not but some of what he says doesn't make sense or is inaccurate. Can't remember the exact details of some instances off the top of my head b/c they were just too cringe worthy.

The upper-level pattern has done wonders to really warm the waters too in recent weeks. +28C to +29C up to the NC/VA border Speaking of water temperatures, where all the people freaking out about that "cold blob" in the north Atlantic that is no longer really there

Big Y parking lot

almost took clothes off

Just got a brief downpour!

I think I'm ready for fall...more so because I'm pumped NFL season starts Wednesday and NHL in 3.5 weeks. Once you get these cloudy days and it makes the earlier sunsets super apparent and dealing with the darker earlier mornings that's a sign to wave the white flag on summer and start moving onto the next season.

probably just misses east but given the strength, way too close to totally write off now for some of those islands. Big Island probably fine outside of dangerous waves but those far northwestern islands...I'd be a little sweaty if I were them.

Some concerning guidance and trends for at least portions of the Hawaiian Islands regarding Lowell

Certainly going to start feeling more like Fall. Really sucks we could not tap into any of the heat/higher humidity.

ehhh not so sure about that. Both days are going to have some showers around and destructive sunshine with cold pool moving in aloft, especially on Sunday.

Glad it worked out across NY/PA but damn what a blow. Couldn't even muster one day.

What a line and reactivity gradient. Holy smokes

Easy to see where that will track. Hopefully we can get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon

I find it odd that we can't develop storms tomorrow afternoon. NAM actually swings some decent s/w energy through during peak heating. NAM actually develops QPF between 18z-21z into western sections and then it goes poof.

Going to be some violence going through Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca late on

I am going to miss being able to just throw on shorts and short sleeved shirt after showering in the morning. Here it is September and I’m still wearing shorts. I’ve adapted quite a bit over the past few years