weatherwiz

That would be nice. Certainly enough time to where that is plausible...that could be wishful thinking it just goes to show it wouldn't take much. That shortwave digging into the northern Plains there may be inhibiting such a scenario?

Certainly something to watch, obviously verbatim as Will said too late for most but that is a nice stream of vorticity so just have to hope we can get a vort max to kind of take the lead early enough. Curious to see what the EPS will look like

May need the tanning oil too

If they are serious about improving from last year and beefing up the offense they really have no choice but to do so. I'm sure Breslow is refining his code to find out which trades he should seek

There is a better chance I have another very close encounter with a gustnado than the Red Sox doing anything major on the offensive addition front

I wouldn't totally throw in the towel on the 20th yet...it's still a week out and we've seen some swings with the evolution of that shortwave digging in around that period. It's really not that far off from producing something. I would give this another 3 days or so before totally writing it off. And beyond that, with that Arctic front as advertised...there will almost certainly be some significant winter weather produced by that...we just have to hope we end up in the spot. There is no way to definitively lean one way or another right now so all we can do is assess

I kind of figured you were haha. It was pretty entertaining though watching that blow up for a bit lol

If the pattern sets up right and things align correctly, we may not have to worry about melting anything within a few days but we'll have to see what happens moving through the first week of February. A bit more in the way of uncertainty in this respect. At least the incoming cold is setting the stage, now we just have to hope the show delivers.

I didn't really think it was that big of a deal I said final few weeks of the month..so then just replace few with couple. It's not like I said it with one full week left to go.

nahhh we all should be cautiously optimistic moving through next week and the following week

several (I) usually refers to more than 5. Couple/few I always thought were about the same in terms of a numerical reference

A month has 4 weeks. A few is 2...so few = 2 weeks

As long as the extended range looks active with hits that's all we can ask for right now. The extended shows plenty of cold around and looks active...can't ask for anything else really. Obviously we're going to want to see this continuing as we get closer but the look is hopeful.

Pretty much every thread turns into a whiner thread these days Luck has got to change eventually

That's what I'm mostly referring to though...is the more extreme side of the cold. If you're outside and even if its into the lower 20's and your dressed for it and active, you'll be able to tolerate it for sure. I've never skied but I can presume that if its in the teens or maybe even single digits, with all the equipment plus the body working...you'll build up a sweat.

Oh yes...I mean if you're outside being active and doing stuff that certainly helps. I mean before I started driving and I had to either take the bus everywhere or walk (used to walk 2+ miles to work and back when busses didn't operate) I would get warm...even if it was in the teens. But nobody is going outside when its 15F out and going, "ahhh this is such a great day". Even those saying they like the cold or don't mind it...sit outside in a lawn chair for 3-4 hours (even if dressed like an eskimo) and tell me its enjoyable or tolerable or likable

The final few weeks of the month are going to be interesting...just have to hope the storm track sets up and work in our favor. But at lease these two look like a decent bet 1) Active storm track 2) Plenty of cold air around Storm track is going to be the critical component here because despite the cold around things could evolve to where we predominately see cutters. We can hope for a more negative NAO with favorable structure orientation but there is a quite a bit of spread in the direction of the NAO.

oof...well I salut you

Even if its like 10-15F outside and with wind? That's what I am referring to with regards to cold.

I don't understand the idea of telling people who hate the cold to just move down South lol. Nobody likes the cold, some people may tolerate the cold better than others, but nobody likes it. For those that "like" the cold, how long are you sitting outside during the day? How many lawn games are you playing? How often are you sitting pool side? The extent of your outside activities is probably just walking to your car and then walking inside to wherever you're going, then back to your car, then back inside your house.

The Mets have already been eliminated from the 2026 post-season

That period at least to have less in the way of potential destructive interference. Kind of like how things seem to evolve past that period.

When dealing with phasing potential, it's not uncommon or farfetched to see swings of multiple hundreds or miles or more from run-to-run or even mode-to-model. The difference between a phase and no phase can end up substantial. Hell, even the difference between a phase and just a partial phase can be massive in terms of low development and track. The end of week/weekend was always very low potential but the changes needed to get something aren't terribly substantial.

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes.

And he's the one telling people in SNE to move