weatherwiz

I am under red echos but nothing happening...

super eerie here. may head to the basement

1.5'' hail marker over Westfield

let's go baby!!

quite a bit of thunder here. crazy...blue sky looking east and off to the west is the clouds with the storms.

Just erupted into blue sky in Springfield with severe to my west. GOING TO BE POUNDED!!!!!!

decent rotation over Blanford

rotation over Otis

this may be the culprit

rapid sky brightening here. it's like one of those dim lights where you slowly turn the knob to adjust the brightness and in this case its brightness up

Nice instability/thermal axis for any storms to ride up along.

The HRRR is intriguing. It has been pretty consistent. Satellite trends and mesoanalysis show WF progression. I'm still a little concerned about the degree of dry air, but we're not looking at widespread storms here. Looking at the potential for a few, mainly a tiny cluster and if updrafts can become mature enough there's plenty to tap into.

Normally I would just toss NAM temperatures but this is probably a scenario the NAM will coop well. We aren't going to probably mix well and be stuck with a onshore flow. Despite it being quite chilly aloft, if we were able to mix and get some Sun it would still be several-plus degrees warmer (probably to about what the GFS has).

Quite the difference in guidance with precip for tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. The 3km has a decent precip shield moving through overnight while its counterpart is like what precip lol.

That is definitely something I noticed as well. Happened on 5/31/98. Had multiple rounds of strong morning convection which I think cleared out by 9 or 10 AM and an hour or two later it was wall-to-wall Sun and temps pushing 90. Likely a product of an advecting EML in these setups. The stout inversion helps to eliminate the RH field, we get rapid clearing, and the inversion with the EML prevents CU from forming until we're able to bring in the forcing. Pretty awesome how it all works really.

ahh yes I have come across some info that the lake boundaries can act as an enhancer. I think there is a similar connection across western NY. I recall reading some studies which analyzed several tornadoes which eerily had nearly identical tracks. Also one big difference between MI and our area today is I believe they got into the warm sector whereas we won't. Also a bit early in the season here so the SE sfc flow (while aiding in the SRH) provides us with muck off the water. If we had this same setup in even another 3 weeks it probably would have been interesting.

That's super sad. That area of Michigan is rather wild. I don't know much about there climo but what is it that makes southwestern Michigan kind of a hot spot for these larger tornadoes? Is it just because of where they're positioned they tend to end up in a favorable overlap of high cape/shear with great forcing or is there some local terrain induced influences at play?

Some friends of mine from school were renting out a house in Newtown and a tree limb punctured a hole in the roof and they weren't able to stay there until it was repaired. Luckily there landlord had a friend who did that sort of work. His friend told him there were weeks long backlog of orders to remove trees from yards. In fact, he said it was so bad businesses we're turning people away lol. Lots of people in that industry got rich from that event. People were being quoted $15,000+ just to remove a single tree lol

That's when you put up signs, "free wood if you have a chainsaw"

wow I just realized the 3km (6z run) was wayyyy off with the timing of this morning stuff. But I guess it at least caught on to it. IIRC correctly it wasn't as enthused with this AM stuff.

It's been wild for sure, not just the amount of rain but with some of the rainfall rates observed.

Bird taking shelter.

It's pretty wild how dark the sky is. Looks like something you would see in a severe thunderstorm.

Crazy stuff around Kalamazoo, MI last night. Heartbreaking

It's an overall decent setup but I didn't like how much dry air arrives in the wake of this morning stuff. Though it does look like there is some moistening later this afternoon. Also looked like a bit of a cap around 600-400mb. There is two round potential today...this morning stuff and then potential for a few strong storms to develop later this afternoon.