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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Looks like we should be solidly above average, even behind any FROPAs...the only thing we'll noticeably have is a brief period of lower dews. People could call this cheap or whatever because it could be alot of 90/91's but some of the typical torch spots will have a good shot to rack up some 90's over the next few weeks. A quick glimpse of the pattern too should yield hope for MCS potential but we probably get screwed and everything goes from northern Plains, upper-Midwest, Ohio Valley
  2. weatherwiz
    what a supercell in far northwestern Maine
  3. weatherwiz
    Is this like a weak pre-frontal trough or something? Looks like it on WV or some weak embedded shortwave trough ahead of the larger s/w trough
  4. weatherwiz
    I wonder if we get a bit of shortwave subsidence? Maybe thats why some of these HRRR runs and latest 3km are meh.
  5. weatherwiz
    I'd watch closely. It looks like there is some sort of boundary across Connecticut...south-central Connecticut
  6. weatherwiz
    Anyone think Costco's will be open tomorrow? Want to try and go chasing after work but I need to go to Costco
  7. weatherwiz
    Think its safe to toss the HRRR
  8. weatherwiz
    This could also scale back the upper end of heat potential Monday
  9. weatherwiz
    HRRR seems wonky with the dews...wonder if thats why?
  10. weatherwiz
    Connecticut (particularly along and southeast of 84) and Rhode Island should be prime today
  11. weatherwiz
    Not entirely shocked at the slight risk designation. We've had some worse setups get a slight risk designation That is a really well-defined s/w trough moving into the region with good height fields and increasing dynamics with cooling aloft. I would be shocked if storms aren't numerous tomorrow and evolve into multiple short-line segments or clusters
  12. weatherwiz
    maybe!
  13. weatherwiz
    the is one strong shortwave digging through tomorrow for early July. Convection (CONVECTION NOT SEVERE) should overperform. Thought maybe convergence could be a little meh but it doesn't seem bad. What we really need to watch are dews...if we can pool dews another 3-4F that would make things a bit more interesting for some localized severe weather.
  14. weatherwiz
    Yup…don’t see that too terribly often here. Cool to see
  15. weatherwiz
    animated.mov
  16. weatherwiz
    Brother lives in new Britain and lighting hit something about 1/10th of a mile from his house
  17. weatherwiz
    Those storms exploded along the outflow
  18. weatherwiz
    Surprised at the 1” hail tag. Tough to get 1” hail in this setup. Poor lapse rates and very warm aloft. Would need a monster updraft to achieve that.
  19. weatherwiz
    And it gets warned
  20. weatherwiz
    Quite breezy out ahead of this
  21. weatherwiz
    Also looks like some dewpoint pooling ongoing with a theta-e ridge overhead. MLCAPE ~2000 not bad given the poor mid-level lapse rates. Any severe risk though should be extremely localized. DCAPE is meh with pretty poor 2-6km lapse rates and llvl shear is not much. So just going to be some torrential rain (poor drainage flooding risk) and maybe some good CGs
  22. weatherwiz
    It is! Seems to be evolving nicely. Satellite shows great upscale growth with cooling cloud tops. Might even be a weak sea breeze front which aids in development within south-central CT.
  23. weatherwiz
    Not saying we see much severe but we may see a pretty solid line of torrential rain and thunderstorms evolve right along the 84 corridor.
  24. weatherwiz
    short term trends looking favorable from about MA Pike into norther CT in a few hours
  25. weatherwiz
    Only limiting factors I see towards greater coverage are the "lower dewpoints" - 60's aren't bad but would like to see like 68-70+ and llvl convergence looks a little weak. Anyways, steep lapse rates aloft and good height falls so can't sleep on it
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