weatherwiz

An argument can be made that the environment out ahead of the current TOR watch my actually be even more supportive for tornadoes and severe weather which is pretty striking to think about when you look at the probabilities within this watch. There is also potential activity out ahead of the main show could hinder the overall potential. Certainly discrete cells in this environment pose a concern but you pop main cells out ahead and they may not have as much forcing to work with (which would really help any discrete cells to maintain) and they could end up robbing some of the energy.

Pretty impressive sounding out of IAD tis morning. That's some serious shear in the lowest km and hell throughout the troposphere. Forecast CAPE may even be a bit underdone because it wouldn't take much breaks in the sun to boost the temp past the forecast. Even a bit of a residual EML in there. Hell of a lapse rate too up to the tropopause. You get deep convection in this environment and it's going to produce some destructive winds

Pretty wild environment as expected and there is already decent instability in place and satellite suggests that there will be at least partial breaks to allow for additional destabilization. What's really eye popping to me right now is 200-300 m2/s2 of effective storm-relative helicity and you have ~20 knots of sfc-2km winds which are nearly due easterly (inflow winds). The timing of the forcing out west looks more than favorable too. Mesoanalysis (using RAP background) gets 3km CAPE values >100 J/KG later this morning and early afternoon...pretty eye opening given the shear magnitudes.

Going to be lit up down that way today. That power outage map is going to look pretty wild I imagine

Not so sure on the winds today or tonight. The window for gusts 40-50+ mph is probably quite small...like a 1-2 hour window (if that) just out ahead of the cold front when we mix better. Just too much precipitation around today/tonight to probably sufficiently mix. Going to have to rely on embedded convection really but instability overall is going to be pretty weak

Could still see a few strong storms early this afternoon which could may produce some localized strong gusts.

1920’s relieved Or I should say late 20’s and 30’s

1) Must have used some laser device to measure 2) The device must be slanted at a 170° angle

The problem with these big midwestern winter storms is this. We think snow maps drive hype here...it's a million times worse out in those areas. Snow maps out there can go absolutely off the charts in these setups and will show these widespread 20-30+" totals when the max zone ends up being something like 15-20" with some localized higher totals. It's a constant theme with these garbage products yet people still flock to them. People must love being wrong for some odd reason

The NAM may be overdone to a degree as its steeper with the mid-level lapse rates and thus is a bit beefier with elevated CAPE. Such an interesting forecast though because with dewpoints potentially pushing well into the 50's we may not be as inverted as you'd think given the setup and time of year. One big flag, however, is the column should be rather saturated which is never really good for big wind. Outside of the typical spots, any gusts 50-60+ mph would probably have to be tied into any stronger convection moving through. But I am not sure we'll see much strong convection with the overnight stuff.

Probably can't rule out some strong thunderstorms during the early afternoon along the edge of higher theta-e air working in

Probably one of the most impressive line-embedded tornado potential I think I've seen for these parts tomorrow. Unusually when you're seeing 15% tornado probs, you are either talking about or looking for discrete cells (which of course are very possible tomorrow) but that degree of turning combined with sufficient CAPE in the layer and timing of the forcing...going to see some significant rotation embedded within that line tomorrow.

Tomorrow is one of the most impressive setups I think I've seen for line-embedded tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow. That is some serious turning in the lowest 3km with what looks to be more than sufficient CAPE, not to mention the timing of the strongest forcing seems to coincide quite well with the best ingredients.

Yeah this has serious potential down that way tomorrow. I imagine the power outages are going to be quite high

So close, yet so far

Easier said then done

Reading the blizzard warnings in these. would be epic to experience one of these midwestern blizzards one day. True blizzard stuff

yup...not sure what vendors use as an algorithm for those wind gust products but there are as bad as the snow maps

Monday doesn't seem overly impressive for winds...nothing out of the ordinary for these setups. Best bet would be getting a solid convective line to hold but looks like it falls apart quickly. 3km though does suggest there could be some embedded strong convection though.

Can’t wait to bake in June/July with some Sonoran heat releases

Maybe we can use uber helicopter and take measurements at H85

D3 45% area LFG

The upcoming stretch looks like spring in New England. Some mild days, some really mild days, then unsettled weather with FROPAS followed by some chilly days

Yeah I wasn't taking your post at 100% face value...figured there was some humor in there. I do agree though that the climate classification system could use some tweaking and maybe even introduce some micro-climate classifications (though I am positive there are...but they could probably use some tweaking too).

That is some serious early season heat building into the West. Bet we see some big wildfires get going