weatherwiz

Wind starting to pickup a bit here

I think it’s pretty freaking awesome how guidance not only picked up on this localized max but was very consistent.

2.5”!

I think the parade reference is should the Patriots win the Super Bowl. But also saying it's actually not terrible weather for a parade (compared to what we've had anyways).

Can't even get TTs like that during the summer

Someone in Gloucester or Rockport is going to get lucky enough and probably pull off 8-9". Someone is going to be pulling off 3-4" per hour rates for a time with thunder/lightning going on. This signal has just been way too consistent and across multiple forecast models.

GFS bufkit is nuts for Boston. Definitely supports warning criteria potential

That is pretty insane to see. That would probably be a legit thunderstorm with 4" per hour rates lol. Maybe some waterspouts too

GFS too with the signal up around BOS

If upward vertical motion was greater over a widespread area I could see this but not sure we will have enough over a large area to support that.

12z NAM bufkit for BOS. 30 ub/s of omega there. Although I am curious as to why the dip in snow ratio during the height

Absolutely

Now I'm seeing some of those soundings. Not sure if this is a COD thing but sometimes the point-and-click soundings don't really match up to what you'd expect to be seeing. You'd have to wonder if some localized warning amounts are possible if this verified

oh no...I meant location

where did you find that? I was looking through trying to find some soundings like that. That is pretty damn unstable too

That's some really good convergence which develops through the day across eastern Mass. I'm curious to see what the HREF has for precip...I would not be shocked if QPF is going to be understated where synoptically it looks best for prolonged and heavier snows.

Definitely interesting up around BOS on the NAM. Agreed...I'm thinking most should see 1-2" but where you get those localized bands I could legit see some spots picking up 3-5".

It's going to be very localized but there is going to be a very narrow area which I think pulls off 3-5" within eastern CT...maybe more into SE CT

The 12z HRRR has that feature too

Based on what was going around on social media I don't know where the idea came really of a "torch" or whatever you want to call it upcoming. I mean we were clearly going to moderate from what we've been experiencing. This is when anomaly maps get tossed around and are used and interpreted incorrectly. We are still in peak climo in terms of temperatures...orange and red shadings on anomaly maps don't necessarily indicate or mean warm...we can still be above average and its still relatively cold or chilly or whatever. The only areas where its clear there will be a significant warmup is within the central Plains. Even those temp anomaly maps from BAM or sham or whoever...+12 to +15 in the upper-Midwest this time of year is still chilly

Makes my life easier. I was creating stuff using the ENSS-ONI, ONI, and RONI...now I can just eliminate the ONI

Yup. Sounds like the ONI will continue being maintained but the RONI will be the go to now.

@40/70 Benchmark Even a better page dedicated to the RONI and much easier to view the data https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/#latest-data

Wagons in on that 13-15 period. Time to throw in the chips and hope for another biggie

Time is starting to run thin though, especially with not much - if anything in the pipe line in terms of anything big except that mid-month period but there is disagreement on how legit it is. Obviously we can get snow and big storms into March but it becomes much more difficult to do (outside of NNE). But once we hit that time change...bring on the warmer weather.