weatherwiz

Just got a brief downpour!

I think I'm ready for fall...more so because I'm pumped NFL season starts Wednesday and NHL in 3.5 weeks. Once you get these cloudy days and it makes the earlier sunsets super apparent and dealing with the darker earlier mornings that's a sign to wave the white flag on summer and start moving onto the next season.

probably just misses east but given the strength, way too close to totally write off now for some of those islands. Big Island probably fine outside of dangerous waves but those far northwestern islands...I'd be a little sweaty if I were them.

Some concerning guidance and trends for at least portions of the Hawaiian Islands regarding Lowell

Certainly going to start feeling more like Fall. Really sucks we could not tap into any of the heat/higher humidity.

ehhh not so sure about that. Both days are going to have some showers around and destructive sunshine with cold pool moving in aloft, especially on Sunday.

Glad it worked out across NY/PA but damn what a blow. Couldn't even muster one day.

What a line and reactivity gradient. Holy smokes

Easy to see where that will track. Hopefully we can get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon

I find it odd that we can't develop storms tomorrow afternoon. NAM actually swings some decent s/w energy through during peak heating. NAM actually develops QPF between 18z-21z into western sections and then it goes poof.

Going to be some violence going through Rochester, Syracuse, Ithaca late on

I am going to miss being able to just throw on shorts and short sleeved shirt after showering in the morning. Here it is September and I’m still wearing shorts. I’ve adapted quite a bit over the past few years

*sigh*

There may be a window to get at least some isolated storms tomorrow afternoon. I wonder if there is actually potential for damaging wind gusts along the CT coast late tonight.

Holy shit

Yup...precisely this. At least for this period, there were some hints the end of last week we could see a bit more flexing of the ridge into our region versus previous instances this summer but that did not happen. It actually looks to happen for Thursday's potential but we get screwed over other ways lol. Its really amazing how when you look at this from a climatological perspective, more often than not, this is exactly what happens and the cutoff is always pretty much the same exact geography. Pretty fascinating from a science perspective

We don't get multiday severe potential very often but when we do, usually we'll get one day to work out. I mean southwestern CT certainly has some shot early this evening. There still may be some time to get Thursday to work but probably unlikely. But Thursday is quite complex...I may even be incorrectly evaluating and saying 850 front being the issue. Maybe we want to hope tomorrow night isn't as robust and we don't have to deal with thick overcast and precip to begin the day on Thursday. It's very possible this may be overstated too with the more robust precip going to our southwest where better instability is.

Unfortunately not looking good. Tomorrow night is probably just some heavy rain with some embedded thunder. All the good elevated CAPE remains to our west. on Thursday it looks like the 850 cold front will push through before the sfc cold front. So while we actually get into the warm sector and destabilize behind tomorrow nights rain, the 850 front coming through during the morning kills off any hope.

Beautiful environment to our southwest...sigh. Well hopefully at least some good storms can fire across southern NY/PA/NJ...maybe even scrape Fairfield County

This is some insane rain with this though. Getting crushed with the rain today

Not sure much wind with this...instability is most elevated and there probably is at least some sort of inversion rooted above the sfc.

Might be just enough elevated CAPE to get a few lightning strikes

Does look like though some stronger velocities being sampled by LCH

For some odd reason it seems many are trying to will this thing into strengthening. I made a post about this in the SNE form yesterday but on Twitter (since Sunday really) there's been nothing but posts from many people trying to find any reason to justify its strengthening and taking off. I mean sure this has become better organized better structurally over the past few days but is a 40 mph storm lol. Its been nothing but posts about satellite presentation, convection and how "the look means its strengthening". Weird

Shocked we don't have a marginal