weatherwiz

Oneonta is our target area for tomorrow!

Bring on the 75F dews

the post about the accounts of sun breaking out was about the 10/3/79 event...don't want to get that confused with the 7/10/89. But its not uncommon for our EML days to begin with clouds and showers/thunderstorms moving through followed by quick clearing (hell, probably the case too in the midwest). I remember 5/31/98 was like this. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until like 9 or 10 AM (maybe a bit earlier) then off to the races with full sun

I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft.

ahhh right...the Oct 79 was left moving

That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record

Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.

I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity.

Yup a little worried about that. But targeting probably E NY/NW MA/S VT area tomorrow.

AWT

Lets get some sort of show tonight

Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again.

Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast

Give me 25-30 higher

I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason)

Timing is speeding up even more. May end up being a south and east of HFD day

AIT

it might be but this isn't

I'd watch for models to continue speeding up with the timing. There certainly could be a bit cutoff though within SNE where WOR is favored. Seeing the 18z NAM come in even quicker is something to watch...typically the NAM can be too slow.

I've been thinking the over the last 2-3 days the potential would be more western/central NY and PA and maybe SNE Sunday. However, looks like Saturday may end up being centra/eastern NY and PA into SNE. There are still timing differences but the NAM seems to be speeding up a bit. Good wind shear and solid height falls. Would like to see higher dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates but that's more pertinent if you're looking for outbreak type stuff. Just looking for thunder/lightning and a shelf cloud. Anything beyond is a bonus

Getting tingly about Saturday. Finally something to chase! What a boring week being off...nothing.

I’m super cautious as well, especially considering what we went through with the previous dog. Vet told us the same thing. Monitor over the next hour and if we notice her becoming in discomfort to bring her to the ER, otherwise we can wait until the 3:30 appointment. Also said to give her 25mg of Benadryl.

I wonder if a sting or the grass. The vet just texted back saying it may be hives too. We can bring her in for 3:30. What an expensive day…$2000 to get my AC fixed and I’m sure this will be a couple hundred bucks

Yup. I rubbed my hands across and didn’t feel anything lumpy. A friend of mine said shedding but there’s no loose hair or hair coming off easily and it’s just that side.