weatherwiz
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I am kind of hoping the activity will cluster enough and develop a cold pool to survive on and lead to some downstream development -
Stuff really blossoming quickly. May bode well for western/central Mass/CT this evening. Activity developing right along the edge of stronger westerly flow aloft and in an environment characterized by 2500 J of MLCAPE and on the edge of an EML. Stupid westerly flow and deeper mixing here though is resulting in lower MLCAPE but maybe we can bring dews up a bit this evening
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An area of blossoming convection between Rocester and Binghamton which the HRRR didn't really have. Looks like some convection about to fire too northwest and west of Albany
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hmmm well a Great White Shark can come swimming through and fart and that would probably mix the water temp back down into the 60's
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Looks like the HRRR is already busting for today
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yeah but what's the depth of those temperatures?
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Crazy spread in CAMs today with convective coverage. The shitty W/WNW llvl flow really blows for coverage. But if we do see any storms enter the region they could pack quite a punch. The llvl flow is very weak but DCAPE values are absolutely nuts
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Looks like they pulled 87...absolutely insane. NBM was not far off on that...much closer than GFS/NAM
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This month is going to be a scorcher. We'll get some breaks in the higher heat/humidity...I mean we're at the mid-latitudes so fronts will be coming through but those breaks will be brief. Looks like we could get at least one day of 90's towards the end of next week (maybe two), then a front goes through and we drop off again (still seasonably warm) and then could be looking at another push of high heat/humidity
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Nice downburst looks line over Hudson, NY
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So sick of these stupid YouTube clowns with their stupid thumbnails of "get ready". Like to smack them across their stupid looking faces with their stupid microphones
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QPF can't be taken at face value during the warm season (unless you're dealing with a clear-cut and well-defined synoptic lift event). When you're dealing with convection, guidance (especially less coarse models) are going to whip up erroneous QPF amounts over a widespread area when the reality is you're looking at convective precip which is going to be more hit and miss.
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Today is COC
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I would have to think something pops too. At least in the case of tomorrow, we have pretty decent height falls into the evening and overnight and lapse rates are pretty respectable for these parts. Shear is pretty solid too, although llvl flow being more westerly may limit convergence? Instability will be there. This is hitting a nice area for wind potential tomorrow and this corridor lines up well with where the best ingredients overlap
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Got the slight to nudge east into SNE a bit...probably will see another nudge tonight. Maybe even a 30% area added up to the CT/MA border tomorrow morning
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Have to see exactly where the boundary ends up but the RRFS with some nasty storms rolling through later Saturday afternoon. I strongly recommend securing the grill unless you want it going airborne and it starts raining burgers and hot dogs all over.
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that is wild for JFK
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Tomorrow night could be really fun, could even be more fun if that EML wasn't shunting to our southwest
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A lot of evaporation going on too with the rain that moved through. When I went outside with the dog earlier it was like a sauna with the steam rising.
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Should be another loud night for some tomorrow night
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Big lightning spike to my west!!
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Falling apart down this way, figures.
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Nice outflow on radar
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Come to daddy
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I don’t know. Not feeling too confident about it. Was really hopeful earlier but nothing really indicating. I do think we will at least see some isolated activity during the night.
