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weatherwiz

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    Sick One of my classes this semester, Advanced Forecasting Techniques will cover winter weather forecasting including long range/seasonal forecasting and teleconnections
  2. weatherwiz
    Hopefully Tyler Loop isn't kicking
  3. weatherwiz
    I think at this point we would need to see some sizable adjustments from the Euro (which I don't see happening) with the 0z run tonight if we want to talk about potential for widespread warning criteria. I guess we wait on the EPS now
  4. weatherwiz
    It was looking *slightly* promising between 90-96 hours then went to hell
  5. weatherwiz
    That n/s is def more of a kicker on the euro versus gfs. big differences too with that srn stream shortwave and how it evolves across the southeast. Was hoping to see something more positive here
  6. weatherwiz
    Yeah I think at the end of the day the 12z GFS OP is probably towards the outlier side of what would ultimately happen. I'm just hoping for slight improvements from the euro this run from 0z/6z....all we can ask for right now.
  7. weatherwiz
    Yup!
  8. weatherwiz
    I am going to be more interested in hoe euro looks with the H5 evolution moreso than what it does at the sfc with SLP development. Just want to see some ticks in this regard (H5) towards the GFS. But the euro really isn't far off so it's very plausible.
  9. weatherwiz
    As the GFS was out to Sunday I was wondering if that energy diving down the Plains was going to end up screwing things up but ultimately it ended up feeding into our vort and helping to go boom.
  10. weatherwiz
    Well the GFS illustrates pretty well what we need to see happen to get such a solution. Even the euro isn't too far off but it just goes to show how sensitive setups like this are.
  11. weatherwiz
    Haven't seen a 500 evolution like this in a while it feels like
  12. weatherwiz
    Much better digging by 12z Sunday and it looks lie the trough is becoming neutrally tilted as its crossing AL/GA....I love me some of that look.
  13. weatherwiz
    12z GFS looking like a few spots may be able to grab a few inches Saturday too. That is some macho vort
  14. weatherwiz
    When I first became introduced to forecast models and I'd see those "white blob" like -30F 850 temps I think it was from Plymouth models...I used to open my freezer and suck in the air as hard as I could to prepare for breathing in that cold
  15. weatherwiz
    BOS perhaps gets near 50F with 40's elsewhere...but temperatures start dropping west-to-east through the afternoon...probably see squalls along the leading edge of the colder air
  16. weatherwiz
    could see a couple bands of snow squalls moving across the region tomorrow
  17. weatherwiz
    just based on that, the concept may be more related to placement or displacement of the jet versus the actually speed...though speed probably more of a factor in relation to jet streaks versus the jet as a whole.
  18. weatherwiz
    Agreed 100%. I think its an interesting theory but needs alot more work. I do recall Tip having posting some studies before
  19. weatherwiz
    I'm beginning to wonder if the fast flow stuff with respect to phasing (or lack thereof I guess) is kind of voodoo. I've been thinking more of this lately since the exchange Ray and I had a few weeks back. I mean, first off, how are we defining or characterizing "fast flow"? I would guess a certain SD above the norm? I mean during the cold season the jet stream is strongest, so its already naturally fast.
  20. weatherwiz
    I’m just looking at the pattern and how shortwaves are moving. I don’t think it will be bone dry…we’ll have some chances to work with
  21. weatherwiz
    12z was active…it just wasn’t want people wanted to see lol. But the upcoming stretch should be more on the active side
  22. weatherwiz
    Active times coming up. Details TBD
  23. weatherwiz
    That’s like saying the Giants are better than the Jets
  24. weatherwiz
    I’ve yet to ever even look at it
  25. weatherwiz
    That would be nice. Certainly enough time to where that is plausible...that could be wishful thinking it just goes to show it wouldn't take much. That shortwave digging into the northern Plains there may be inhibiting such a scenario?
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