weatherwiz

EWR 62 knots as well

Very sad to hear. Enjoyed his posts. RIP

The dirty warm sector stuff really did a number on the lapse rates...might be difficult to really re-destabilize sufficiently. Also wondering if the better forcing started lagging behind a bit. A lot of this activity really struggled to become mature and develop strong updrafts. Instability didn't appear to be too terrible but maybe was just too weak given the magnitude of the shear so updrafts were being toppled over before they could sufficiently grow vertically. This probably isn't going to pan out to how it once looked but this is far from over. Window from say 3-8 PM could be interesting from central Virginia into North Carolina.

I am not familiar with the geography down there so I don't have much insight to provide. But does your school have good views in all directions? You really might not be in a bad spot.

I think you always have to be careful with the multiple round scenario and more often than not, lean towards the earlier round being more of the show. Especially around these parts, forecast models can really struggle in that regard and its even more of a case when you're dealing with a largely uncapped warm sector. Typically, if you're looking for multiple rounds you want to see a moderate or extremely unstable airmass in place. But this is still looking extremely interesting for much of Virginia into Maryland. Given how warm the llvl airmass is, based on satellite showing a large pocket of cloud breaks and approaching high noon, it won't take much to get temperatures to jump another 5-8F. Also noting the sfc winds are more backed in this area and may continued to back even more. You're storm inflow is also pulling in from higher theta-e which resides just off the coast. Going to have some differential boundaries in play too.

53 mph gust CLT, 61 mph just east of there

An argument can be made that the environment out ahead of the current TOR watch my actually be even more supportive for tornadoes and severe weather which is pretty striking to think about when you look at the probabilities within this watch. There is also potential activity out ahead of the main show could hinder the overall potential. Certainly discrete cells in this environment pose a concern but you pop main cells out ahead and they may not have as much forcing to work with (which would really help any discrete cells to maintain) and they could end up robbing some of the energy.

Pretty impressive sounding out of IAD tis morning. That's some serious shear in the lowest km and hell throughout the troposphere. Forecast CAPE may even be a bit underdone because it wouldn't take much breaks in the sun to boost the temp past the forecast. Even a bit of a residual EML in there. Hell of a lapse rate too up to the tropopause. You get deep convection in this environment and it's going to produce some destructive winds

Pretty wild environment as expected and there is already decent instability in place and satellite suggests that there will be at least partial breaks to allow for additional destabilization. What's really eye popping to me right now is 200-300 m2/s2 of effective storm-relative helicity and you have ~20 knots of sfc-2km winds which are nearly due easterly (inflow winds). The timing of the forcing out west looks more than favorable too. Mesoanalysis (using RAP background) gets 3km CAPE values >100 J/KG later this morning and early afternoon...pretty eye opening given the shear magnitudes.

Going to be lit up down that way today. That power outage map is going to look pretty wild I imagine

Not so sure on the winds today or tonight. The window for gusts 40-50+ mph is probably quite small...like a 1-2 hour window (if that) just out ahead of the cold front when we mix better. Just too much precipitation around today/tonight to probably sufficiently mix. Going to have to rely on embedded convection really but instability overall is going to be pretty weak

Could still see a few strong storms early this afternoon which could may produce some localized strong gusts.

1920’s relieved Or I should say late 20’s and 30’s

1) Must have used some laser device to measure 2) The device must be slanted at a 170° angle

The problem with these big midwestern winter storms is this. We think snow maps drive hype here...it's a million times worse out in those areas. Snow maps out there can go absolutely off the charts in these setups and will show these widespread 20-30+" totals when the max zone ends up being something like 15-20" with some localized higher totals. It's a constant theme with these garbage products yet people still flock to them. People must love being wrong for some odd reason

The NAM may be overdone to a degree as its steeper with the mid-level lapse rates and thus is a bit beefier with elevated CAPE. Such an interesting forecast though because with dewpoints potentially pushing well into the 50's we may not be as inverted as you'd think given the setup and time of year. One big flag, however, is the column should be rather saturated which is never really good for big wind. Outside of the typical spots, any gusts 50-60+ mph would probably have to be tied into any stronger convection moving through. But I am not sure we'll see much strong convection with the overnight stuff.

Probably can't rule out some strong thunderstorms during the early afternoon along the edge of higher theta-e air working in

Probably one of the most impressive line-embedded tornado potential I think I've seen for these parts tomorrow. Unusually when you're seeing 15% tornado probs, you are either talking about or looking for discrete cells (which of course are very possible tomorrow) but that degree of turning combined with sufficient CAPE in the layer and timing of the forcing...going to see some significant rotation embedded within that line tomorrow.

Tomorrow is one of the most impressive setups I think I've seen for line-embedded tornadoes in the mid-Atlantic tomorrow. That is some serious turning in the lowest 3km with what looks to be more than sufficient CAPE, not to mention the timing of the strongest forcing seems to coincide quite well with the best ingredients.

Yeah this has serious potential down that way tomorrow. I imagine the power outages are going to be quite high

So close, yet so far

Easier said then done

Reading the blizzard warnings in these. would be epic to experience one of these midwestern blizzards one day. True blizzard stuff

yup...not sure what vendors use as an algorithm for those wind gust products but there are as bad as the snow maps

Monday doesn't seem overly impressive for winds...nothing out of the ordinary for these setups. Best bet would be getting a solid convective line to hold but looks like it falls apart quickly. 3km though does suggest there could be some embedded strong convection though.