weatherwiz

Waking up nude

Time to get some sleep. Aiming to wake up 2-3 AM or maybe a bit after 1. Gotta recharge a bit

Looking at upper level water vapor and mesoanalysis...I think I would be a bit shocked if slides east. In fact, I think this will end up tracking somewhat close to what some guidance was showing 0z/12z yesterday...maybe not quite to the extent but I think some of the east jogs we saw today are overstated

So fun to watch

No, they are sometimes issued for wildfires, child abductions, a hazardous spill, etc.

very well could be

Lets go!!! This is all new

Here's a good visual and this is probably one of the more impressive MAULs you usually see

Widespread heavy snow overspreads everyone through the night. Uniform ~30dbz across the state. HRRR also looks to hold onto the snow/banding longer before breaking down than NAM/GFS. Been pretty consistent too with widespread 40-50 mph gusts

No hate on the 20z HRRR holy moly

looks like low topped supercells

Pounding in S NJ and DE

This is going to be extremely fascinating to watch and see how it plays out. What may end up happening too is (and you can kind of see it there) there is enough fire hose to keep the band going but outside of the banding things may wind down quick. That would cause some pretty interesting spreads in totals across a short distance

Let's go curling

There could be and probably are many reasons but occlusion too quickly would support shutting off the influx of moisture into the storm but that doesn't really look to be the case. Another possibility is with how quickly the storm is strengthening, the best fronto is collapsing south and east closer to the low but that doesn't seem to be the case either because the front just simply dies over us and we seem to be sort of smoking subsidence. I am still leaning towards this being completely overstated but if this happens we can't say we're surprised by it lol

This has had me scratching my head

I'm going to install giant windmills in my backyard so I get thundersnow every time

Well not making any changes. There will certainly be some screw zones but no way to quantify that.

Thank you!

WOAH Blizzard warning for me. LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

At this point it's time to really shift focus to satellite, radar, and mesoanalysis/HRRR

Thanks for posting this. It seems the 3km NAM is always aggressive with precipitation and development, especially on leading edge of approaching weather systems and out ahead of fronts. I am guessing this is part of its scheme where it just develops precipitation too quickly? I can think of the terminology here but I did a module on MetEd last summer that went into this.

I haven't see this talked about much but what I think is really going to be a killer in this is going to be areas of major subsidence. I've always been fearful we see a banded precipitation field given how intense the low becomes, but none of the simulated radar reflectivity's have shown this. However, I think it's kind of evident in looking at the fronto banding signatures. Ultimately what will happen is there will be spots which make out beautifully and score in the upper end of ranges and there will be spots which struggle to even get to the lower end. No way to really paint that on a map either

Hellebuyck is the MVP, 1st Star, 2nd Star, and 3rd Star

SCORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!