weatherwiz

snow has started!

I am not so sure I would classify this as a tick southeast. Obviously, looking at this face value that's the take, HOWEVER, that is also tied into where the GFS believes the brunt of the CCB will traverse and impact. So in this regard, the QPF isn't necessarily reflective of trends in storm track but trends in CCB (which we know models don't do great with until ~24hr or just inside). BUT...this does provide a very good proxy of what you can probably expect for max QPF

Yeah he's been quite spot on with diagnosing the trends and how things may evolve so I definitely think there is some additional room too but being cautious on the extent

Absolutely nothing to complain about on that GFS run. Just have to hope we see a bump in that direction from the Euro too. You have to wonder though if this is the far western edge of the envelope of if there is some additional room for a bit N and W, if this is the western envelope I'd def be a little concern for those shuffles which of course wouldn't be good for western folk

That is some serious dynamic cooling going on too. This LLJ is absolutely insane...imagine the moisture being tossed into this and look at those temps

IDK...this looks pretty damn good to me with getting heavy banding across much of the region. That 700mb low development and track is pretty solid. Maybe not perfect but strengthening just to our south with a bit of ENE movement.

70 days to go!!!

Yup...can't believe I forgot to mention that and this probably supersedes what I mentioned in terms of importance. The NAM does have alot of strengths and unfortunately its weaknesses really suck but at least those are very easy to spot and understand.

I could be 1000000% wrong on this but I think the holdup with that is there still is alot of work which needs to be done with its replacement. The NAM still remains the only model really which handles CAD extremely well and seems to be best in situations with hung up fronts and nearby boundaries. Getting rid of the NAM right now could be pretty horrific in some forecasting situations

Isn't the SREF going bye-bye too later this year? I'll be sure to shed a tear

Inclined to lean that way too. Haven't put a whole lot of effort into this until last night/this morning and looking at past models it does seem to be a bit of a trend in that way, at least short term. We can only hope 12z continues in this direction.

That would certainly be ideal. This or just become kind of a non player (though I understand it would taper back the overall potential). But if that can phase in we are game on.

If that trough axis can shift west just a tad more and dig a bit more this would be something. There is certainly enough time too to get a tick in that direction. That trailing s/w at 78 on GFS/Euro might just be screwing things up just a bit...you can tell this thing really wants to rip up just off the coast

Can't hate overnight guidance, definitely enough to keep the interest involved. What we needed to see happen last night, we saw, at least to some degree. Now we hope to continue this as 12z

Not much longer until we'll be tracking this