weatherwiz

guessing its probably 18z tomorrow when NAM starts to tame down.

Kevin gets dry slotted though most of QPF probably done

Can't wait to see how amped the NAM turns out to be based on the look so far.

Isn't Google DeepMind the one which has had extremely encouraging results, however, also described as "the model is able to produce great results, however, the model has no clue how it derived the results". There was some article or paper on this a year or two ago.

doing both

ughh something wonky must be going on with bufkit profiles from PSU. keep forgetting to make a backup bufget list from iowa state.

my thinking too...hope that is overdone. doesn't look like a ton of convection associated with this across the SE

yup...and too much data created to "save people time" while degrading forecasting skill. Hey, why do I have to spend an hour or two assessing all the critical factors which influence snowfall totals when I can just pull up a 10:1 map, call it a forecast, then blame the model for being wrong when it doesn't pan out. Or significant tornado parameter map is showing widespread values of 4-5...let's go with tornado outbreak! its gross.

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the euro come back the other way a bit tomorrow but something like this run may not be too far off from what occurs

the 12z GFS bufkit for ORH is odd. I don't really put too much stock into the precip type but it has this look as heavy ZR. It's more than likely a lift thing but it's still funny to see. but then has this as heavy snow

The storm but I also think I could get into that range. I think a lot would have to go right to really get a widespread area of 6-7-8-9” or so. But depending on how this evolves there could room for those higher totals a bit farther north into parts of NH

I’m going to say 4-6” is probably ceiling with this. Maybe some 7-8” reports if things really fall right and depending on the angle of the ruler into the snow. But I will wear a Santa hat and do cartwheels if I can get 4-5” Dec 2

Heavier rates along the Mass Pike might be enough to pump enough moisture higher up into the DGZ and get better growth going

yeah 700mb is quite warm. snow growth would be pathetic except perhaps towards SNH or so and just north