weatherwiz

3km remains impressive looking. Really interested to see how we look in the AM, particularly with satellite

Yeah something is definitely up with how he's pulling the data or processing it.

For a second I thought we were looking at a tropical system somewhere

what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb

RRFS has some big gusts tomorrow too

Was just going to post on that. Some of the soundings are pretty impressive I'm also curious about the potential for some squalls to fire up later in the afternoon.

Going to be an interesting day for sure.

Still have to watch though because if its just a non stop rain with no break between the initial area and line ahead of the front, gusts will be greatly diminished. It looks like the window for gusts 50-60+ is going to be relatively small and might end up being something more localized versus widespread. If there is a break between the initial area and incoming line, it will absolutely rip for a few hours

yup for sure. I am definitely a bit more intrigued than I was 24 hours ago.

That LLJ does hang back through early afternoon. Unlike that setup some weeks back where models trended east with the LLJ inside of 48 hours...this one has not

It certainly may be. It all depends on really what side of everything we're on. We could be southwesterly or northeasterly. Heck, probably even get a mixture of both.

Part of me is wondering if there is some scaling back in that regard due to climo. I agree that we certainly may end up below average as a whole, but unless we get some persistent HP to our north...we are going to be caked into a southwesterly surface flow. But the boundary is going to be very close by. It really can go either way

I still think there is room for something bigger in the 28th-31st time frame, but perhaps not in the classic sense of what you would want the pattern to look like. I think its been mentioned several times, but we easily could see something along the lines of a late bloomer. But what happens during this period will be a big influence on how we evolve moving through the start of January. If the blocking develops as advertised (I think this is what would help with bigger storm potential in the time frame mentioned) but this probably leads to an increased risk that we do undergo a period of above average warmth early in January as the southern ridging connects with the block. If the blocking doesn't materialize then maybe we just remain more zonal and probably more towards the cooler side of average but not particularly active.

Who the heck knows what to expect after Christmas. The signals are all over the place, especially with the structure and orientation of the pattern which will play a critical roll. If I had to be nervous about something post Christmas it would be shortwave moving into the West getting obliterated as they move across the Inter-mountain West...but there is really no sense of worrying about this nor any point to feeling confident or not confident.

The best part IMO is getting data faster