weatherwiz

beer?

This is more for Wednesday but wild differences between guidance at BOS for tomorrow 6z MAV: 65 0z MET: 57 9z high then dropping 7z NBM: 69 I was actually expecting the 13z NBM to tame down at BOS but nope...came in at 71 . Been that seems wayyyy too high. Highest 3hr value anyways is 64 which still might be a bit high...though BOS might have a chance to climb before the E winds kick in

Absolutely wild the differences in guidance in how convection develops/evolves tomorrow. the 3km NAM highlights exactly what I was thinking yesterday in terms of potential/evolution but it doesn't have much support. But then again, not one model has support from another. Ahh the fun of convective forecasting

lol

40's are normal for April?

oh come on are you kidding me? Got the marginal risk but got cutoff right at the border

The 18z HRRR does have a line moving through late PM. Might be dependent on exactly how much heating there is. The overall forcing looks pretty weak but it does look like a weak boundary will be sliding through...could be enough to get things going. Looks better north though

I would not be shocked to see a large marginal introduced for D3 when the new outlook comes out within the next 45 minutes

better chance late Wednesday PM

Potential for some strong storms Wednesday evening for southern CT. Unusual timing for this time of year for strong storms but steep lapse rates along the coast with good shear/CAPE and some approaching s/w energy

sun out now. see lots of blue

This sucks @40/70 Benchmark With the NWS discontinuing NCEP/NCAR R1 and the switch to CORe, if I'm understanding what I'm reading correctly, PSL is not going to offer plotting of CORe, although it is listed under the list of datasets. NCEP.NCAR R1 will still be available for reanalysis purposes but may have to switch over to ERA5

Models have been hinting at this potential for the past 7-8 days with very little wavering...pretty impressive to see. I wouldn't be surprised if that got extended a bit east as well. One downside though is the overall forcing doesn't appear particularly strong. What this is going to do is likely negate this from producing scattered thunderstorm activity within the region as a whole. The best likelihood is probably going to be across like VT/NH/northern MA where there may be some better forcing and also on the edge of the stronger llvl airmass/theta-e gradient. Probably see at least one cluster roll through here. Maybe differential heating can pop some stuff elsewhere

Big difference in lapse rates on NAM versus GFS tomorrow. NAM keeps feeding in steeper lapse rates throughout the day while the GFS weakens them a bit before another surge of steeper lapse rates build in.

yup definitely going to need sun for sure, probably especially to our southwest because there doesn't seem to be much in the way of momentum to really blow this warm front through. Haven't looked at any guidance since Friday but I do recall on Friday thinking there was a chance we could be mucked in a bit longer on Monday. Could be a day where like Danbury, CT is able to just get into sun/warmer airmass and pull out a 73 while most everyone else is barely into the lower 60's. But idk...there might be an opportunity to start ridding of this lower cloud deck late morning