weatherwiz

Its amazing how quickly it just slings up the coast. Basically goes from LA to the northern mid-Atlantic within 12 hours lol

Yup...Euro is basically saying it's time to essentially pull the plug with the hopes for anything big and perhaps even anything at all say the Cape

If non AI models were a big hit and AI models were a non hit, would the mindset be the same?

It's also probably start time to prepare for May 1st. You all may laugh but there is alot of mental and physical preparation that goes into getting ready for May 1st. Preparing the mind and then getting in touch with the inner soul.

blah not was I was hoping for. Well I guess this system has about as much shot as any team not named the Dodgers of winning the World Series for the next 5 years

Agreed, a shift to that extent is going to be a very difficult task if we don't see some significant improvements by 0z tonight. If I were in eastern areas though I think I might feel a bit better about this because the shifts needed will be much less. It's really hard to go one way or another with this because we have seen some pretty drastic shifts with the handling of that northern stream energy and how it interacts with the southern stream

I actually wonder if we may see a few decent hits on the GEFS...I think if we can at least see some decent hits that should be enough to keep the idea alive that we could see some favorable trends in the next day. If the GEFS is pretty meh though...that combined with a subpar Euro might be enough to make for a nearly flat heartbeat on this

Yeah this isn't going to do it, however, should get at least light snows across a chunk of the region. Would have preferred to see a much better look here but I don't think it's a bad enough look to lean in the direction of not happening.

Just looked at 0z/6z models for second half of the week and holy hell what a disparity. I will say though and I think I mentioned this the other night...that is one powerful Arctic front slated to drop South and I would find it hard pressed not to see at least one major winter weather event impact a large geographical area. I think the biggest question is going to be the timing...does this happen during the second half of the week (similar to the 6z GFS) or does this get pushed back say 2-3-4 days? I would definitely watch anywhere from the mid-South into the Northeast.

In reality, I would not put much stock into any meso model and not just because we're outside of the range they are useful for, but they are not particularly good with phasing events and aren't really designed for them anyways.

Just thinking to myself...is it a precursor the one model you would expect to go bonkers not doing so

Wow pleasant surprise with the overnight guidance. Given the time frame we're entering hopefully those trends are an indication of where we're headed. Definitely want to see the Euro with a bit of a bigger shift at 12z. Still need a bit of work but its doable at this range.

This is how I feel with the severe weather threads

What is this obsession with Nemo

Was the one high risk…feels like forever now but maybe 2019? People were going insane because the HRRR was going bonkers with these warm sector supercells and I think a high risk was issued and virtually nothing happened. I think after this it became apparent the HRRR had a bias for supercells south of the warm front well away from any forcing