weatherwiz

Much of this week is actually even a bit below average, except probably towards the end of the week ahead of the next system.

I have to finish reading your outlook Ray (I've gotten through your MJO analysis) but I don't think it can be stated enough how phenomenal of a writer you are, your wealth of knowledge, and how easily you're able to explain things.

This wind is nuts. Was going to take a little break from class work and clean the gutters but I don't think I'll be going on a ladder in this

At some point soon it will change and we will get crushed.

"EPS looks good" "EPS looks good" blah blah blah, tired of hearing it. It's the same routine every year. 1. EPS shows a big pattern change around Thanksgiving 2. Looks like EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Dec 10. 3. EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Christmas, but don't worry, it's delayed not denied. 4. Well we're into the New Year, but winter us just about to begin. EPS shows the pattern changing in a big way by the 10th. 5. Well looks like the pattern change doesn't occur until the end of Jan but we should be in store for a big Feb...look at that trough on the EPS!!!! 6. winter's over. just couldn't cash in. March comes, finally get a good pattern - now a bit too warm outside of northern New England and elevation. Rinse, wash, repeat.

What a colossal joke between the Euro and GFS with the overall evolution and structure of the pattern next week and it goes beyond this. It's legit been increasingly difficult to find any strong model consensus or consistency. How the hell is anyone really supposed to glean a signal when assessing medium-to-long range (particularly longer range and by longer range I mean 8-10+ days out, not seasonal) outside of just basing off "analogs". Literally, who cares what EPS's show past D10 or what the EPO, NAO, PNA, AO, whatever are "forecast" to do. These facets have been irrelevant the last several years and when we've seen these features evolve as is...what was expected in terms out production was still wrong. Until we can figure out what the hell is going on with this model inconsistency and discrepancy it's all really just a big joke.

I think the final week or so of the month could be above average but I can see things kind of changing moving through December...but we all know how this works. We've seen plenty of times these last several years where models break down patterns and yield favorable looks past D10 and it never verifies. My really main worry with moving into December is we get wave breaking across the west coast then troughs begin to weaken and lift northeast while pumping up a ridge out ahead. The ridges won't be long lasting but will be timed with storms and then we deal with cold on the back end with snow showers while ski areas up north cash in. I get very, very cautious when it comes to needing the PAC to breakdown. We need to see something in the short term that indicates this will happen. Hopefully we can win with threading the needle early on.

dendrite should ban you for posting that

Pretty wild the differences that evolve between the GFS/Euro moving past like D4-5...first with strength/orientation of several features and then flat out how the pattern evolves. Here is to another winter of this crap I guess

Fair

Go big or go home and since I'm pretty much always home, may as well go big

I hope we get smoked for the first half of winter and then warm up in March. I've been thinking about this lately. As much as I hate the cold, its tolerable in December, January, and February but by the time March rolls around...I'm done, fed up, ready for warmth. Hoping for about 20-25" in December and January, then 30-40" in February, then off to the 70's in March.

Correct, but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything for us. This could just as easily benefit Europe. But something to watch for sure

Let's hope

yeah satellite looks awful (though I guess there may be some thinning/decrease). Probably be similar to last night in the cloud category. Figures this one would be weaker. Oh well...can go to bed early