weatherwiz

I recall coming across something recently too (I forgot who it was) about the PV vortex and how it seemed to be much slower with its seasonal demise through the spring so far. It's like the hemisphere on our side of the globe is dying to get us into an early summer but the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere is still programed to be blocky. Maybe rooting for these early season anomalous warm spells isn't a good idea lol...I mean eventually the ridging in place responsible for that warmth has to get shunted east (unless its a scenario in which the ridge just totally breaks down) and what happens when that ridging shunts east? You are building those positive heights into Greenland and it's hello block. With this we've fed the Arctic domain what it needs to become manifested in what it wants to do and the result is...weeks of hell. One thing that makes me really nervous going into May is the signal for some stout ridging to develop across the north Pacific and into the Gulf of Alaska. Eventually these teleconnections should begin to break down and their influence subside, but this opens the door to get omega block like moving into May.

People would probably hate this but like I mentioned yesterday, a Nor'easter bringing a region wide soaking wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But lets just hope we start to flip things not too long after. I've been intrigued by this idea over the past few days and it got me thinking about what you said last week regarding there being some atmospheric hangover in the modeling from the current NAO we are in. Admittedly, I have not looked at ensembles yet and just going off some OP runs, so not sure what kind of signal the ensembles have, but just looking at the NAO forecast, there seems to be a bit of spread in the NAO forecast moving forward, but the signal is for the NAO becoming less negative over time...but if you play out the OP (GFS) that signal looks just opposite. So I am wondering if perhaps the OP might be a bit out too lunch. Looking at ensembles though would certainly help answer this question But I don't really care about that far ahead yet so haven't put any heavy detailed thought into it lol

That is one heck of an evolution to kick off May. That is a pretty nasty block and a good looking block too...that's the type of blocking we want to see in Jan/Feb lol.

Down go 9 days!

It would suck because its early May, but for those worried about dry grounds and "drought" conditions, one way to fix that is a good ole coastal. A good widespread 1-3" of rain for a day wouldn't be a terrible thing

10 days to go!!! And with that we will begin a 10 day countdown It's like the New Years countdown but much slower.

Another frosty morning

what's this accumulated supercell energy products or whatever they're called that are going around?

Yeah looking at mesoanlysis there definitely is a second weak feature about to slide through the region. Satellite does appear hopeful that perhaps we clear some behind that passage but I am worried that a combination of very cold mlvl temps + residual mlvl moisture is going to result a continuing of building cloud over. But maybe we transform from more stratus to more cumulus like

Very thick overcast making it pretty dark. Kind of reminds me of those gloomy January days when its dark out at 3:30 because of the thick overcast and sun already nearing the horizon

Looks like we miss out on at least some isolated thunderstorms tomorrow night...looks to be back over PA. Looks to be associated with the approaching warm front and some decent lapse rates/elevated instability. Nice theta-e ridge too. Maybe some upslope snows though for the southern Greens?

Pretty frosty out there this morning

AWT

maybe even kill off some ticks Reminds me of a few Aprils ago (or maybe it was early May) but we had that dome of well below average 925/850mb temps overhead and yet we where still putting out ~ average.

Outside of Monday, a part of me is inclined to tack on 3-4F to guidance next week (away from the coast). If we get sun we should have no problem mixing. I could see Tuesday end up being warmer than what is advertised and Wednesday does have some potential to be quite mild depending on timing of the system moving through. Nice battle the end of the week with higher heights trying to build in but hitting a wall