weatherwiz

Time to get some sleep. Aiming to wake up 2-3 AM or maybe a bit after 1. Gotta recharge a bit

Looking at upper level water vapor and mesoanalysis...I think I would be a bit shocked if slides east. In fact, I think this will end up tracking somewhat close to what some guidance was showing 0z/12z yesterday...maybe not quite to the extent but I think some of the east jogs we saw today are overstated

So fun to watch

No, they are sometimes issued for wildfires, child abductions, a hazardous spill, etc.

very well could be

Lets go!!! This is all new

Here's a good visual and this is probably one of the more impressive MAULs you usually see

Widespread heavy snow overspreads everyone through the night. Uniform ~30dbz across the state. HRRR also looks to hold onto the snow/banding longer before breaking down than NAM/GFS. Been pretty consistent too with widespread 40-50 mph gusts

No hate on the 20z HRRR holy moly

looks like low topped supercells

Pounding in S NJ and DE

This is going to be extremely fascinating to watch and see how it plays out. What may end up happening too is (and you can kind of see it there) there is enough fire hose to keep the band going but outside of the banding things may wind down quick. That would cause some pretty interesting spreads in totals across a short distance

Let's go curling

There could be and probably are many reasons but occlusion too quickly would support shutting off the influx of moisture into the storm but that doesn't really look to be the case. Another possibility is with how quickly the storm is strengthening, the best fronto is collapsing south and east closer to the low but that doesn't seem to be the case either because the front just simply dies over us and we seem to be sort of smoking subsidence. I am still leaning towards this being completely overstated but if this happens we can't say we're surprised by it lol

This has had me scratching my head