weatherwiz

Definitely better there I think than south with the initial thump.

NAM even kind of targets east facing slopes of the southern Greens and Berks with potential for accumulating snow with this

Sim radars also showing a very convective look to the precipitation field tomorrow...makes sense given the steep lapse rates and weak elevated instability. Kind of reminds me of those awful spring days (even sometimes in the summer) when we get the hung up warm fronts and the day consists of clouds, periods of drizzle, and then spotty/brief heavier showers. But dealing with wintry precipitation types versus plain liquid

colder/south in this case probably doesn't even do much to help, if anything would make things worse. Probably means less moisture influx (which is already limited) and even weaker dynamics (which are already pretty terrible). Better dynamics are lift is well to our northwest, closer to the main low. The weak sfc low development is enough to keep it just cold enough at the sfc for us to get some freezing drizzle or sleep pellets

I expect the radar to be crap tomorrow. The dynamics aren't particularly great there is a quite a bit of dry air aloft (outside of a rather narrow axis of moist air lifting southeast to northeast). It will be the Adirondacks, Greens, and probably Berks that get any accumulating snow. Elsewhere its just going to be a combination of rain showers, freezing drizzle, and some sleet pellets. Probably some wet snowflakes for the hills.

This. You really want to see surface temperatures more like 28-29 versus 31-32 to start having concerns for ice accretion and anything of subsidence outside of causing slick spots on untreated surfaces.

ahhh very true. Plus another 4/1/97 except lower elevations are nailed too.

Nope Will have to hope for next season

Does coming out of the event with less snow OTG than before it count as something?

Yup...going to be a tough one. Just like you said, probably be a very narrow area that may do well.

I wonder if this energy diving in is the make or break for multiple inches of accumulation. This is some pretty decent shortwave energy diving along with a rapid increase in the lapse rates so it becomes fairly unstable aloft. This also would support sort of a re-blossoming of precipitation downstream of it.

I could see tomorrow too being a case where the radar returns are much stronger than ground truth because of the degree of bright banding we'll see taking place.

I was thinking yesterday someone could probably pull off 3-4-5" but I don't see that happening now. I mean I'm sure someone in the Berks will do it way up but looking around at forecast soundings on the 12z NAM...they absolutely blow. Much of the precip type tomorrow is probably going to be rain (we'll say rain showers because the intensities overall probably not heavy outside of a narrow area) with some sleet pellets mixing in...and some areas will bounce around between like 70-30 or 80/20 mixture and you'll probably have to get into the hills to get some mangled snow flakes mixing in.

oof this is becoming a bit ugly. Really may be Pike north for best shot at any accumulations more than a few inches...maybe CT Hills can squeak an inch or two. Such a tough forecast, the band of snow is going to be so narrow