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calculus1

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Posts posted by calculus1

  1. I think we've gotten soft recently, regarding rainfall.

    My wife's boss referred to this weekend as a 100-year rain event for Hickory and wants them to work from home on Friday. What?!

    I have a conference ending early on Friday in Surry County, NC, because of potential bad weather; i.e., heavy rain. Really?!

    HS football has been moved up a day in Hickory because of Hurricane Ian. We can't play in rain?!

    Since when did we begin to cancel things because of rain? This is nuts. I think we get 2-3 inches of rain maximum in Hickory, NC. We can get that much in a single summer afternoon with thunderstorms. Maybe I am wrong and we get 10 inches of rain, but I don't get all the panicking in interior NC outside the mountains.

    Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

    • Like 4
  2. 16 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said:

    Been bone dry in Raleigh for weeks. We can soak it up.

    Same here in Hickory, NC. We got 0.62 inch of rainfall last night due to a rogue storm on the frontal passage, but that was the first measurable rainfall in weeks. We need the rain here.

  3. Been pretty boring weather-wise, recently.  Picked up a heavy rain shower this afternoon, though -- 1.86 inches in about one half of an hour.  That brings my yearly total up to 29.10 inches of rainfall, just off my ten-year average pace (see below in signature).

  4. Crazy dynamics with this system. All day snow blowing in Boone. Never any accumulation after sun came up, though, but the mood flakes were fantastic.

    Then, driving back down US 321, even witnessed snow/graupel at Cheek's Crossing outside Lenoir and between Lenoir and Taylorsville on NC 90. The crazy thing about this is that the temperature was at 50! That was a 15 degree difference from Blowing Rock to the bottom of the mountain, and yet the snow still survived the journey to the ground. I'm pretty sure that's the warmest ground temperature I have witnessed snow falling at. Crazy. And pretty cool.

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    • Like 3
  5. 2 hours ago, WXNewton said:

    Definitely an overachiever here as far as ice goes. GFS did horrible with precip back to the west and the ice. RGEM sniffed it out first and stayed course with it. I've listen to constant scanner chatter from 4:30-9:45 wrecks every few minutes.  https://photos.app.goo.gl/2VhcxMJfgxAZfgxp7

     

    2 hours ago, WXNewton said:

    Few pic from about 30 mins ago.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/hTkJh9pBWuzdRdHf6

     

     

    Wow! That's significantly more icing than we got in NW Hickory.  Newton is further to our SE, but it appears you got the goods, there.  Incredibly long icicles for something that was supposed to be so minor.

    • Like 1
  6. 30/27 here in northern Catawba County.  Evergreen trees starting to droop from ice.
    30.1/28 in my similarly located backyard. Same ice observations. Tiny icicles formed too.

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  7. 20 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    The 90s never existed in NC winter weather history :+) Still doesn't take away from what I said. It will be 3 years below average in a row and we will be going on to year 4. I have always heard 6 inches is the average from a few reliable sources. I will stick with that. 

    Well, Adam Schefter used unnamed sources to report Tom Brady was retiring yesterday, and let's just say there's been a bit of pushback.  Just sayin'.  ;)

    It's kinda difficult to argue with the math behind @cbmclean's calculations.  And, the word average can indicate either the mean, the median, or the mode.  Most people understand the word average to mean the mean, but the mean is the measure of central tendency that is most susceptible to having extreme values skew it's value, in this case, positively.  If you remove the Carolina Crusher year from the above dataset, you will find the mean annual snowfall in RDU is only 4.4 inches, and that's still keeping in the two unusual values above 14 inches.  Take those two out, and the mean is even closer to the median value of 2.5 inches.  I would argue the median is a much better measurement of the typical annual snowfall in a location that has such extreme variability.  While RDU can definitely have a year or two here and there with a double-digit snowfall total, it's much more the exception than the rule.  Thus, I would make the argument that RDU is already above average (the median average) in snowfall for this winter.  Anything else is gravy.  :D

    • Like 2
  8. Went out to eat with the family here in Hickory.  Just got back home.  Was surprised to find a dusting on the mulch.  Seemed to be all rain in the headlights on the way home.  Temperature is 34.5 right now.

    Just drizzle right now.  Probably need heavier returns to get back to snow.

    • Like 2
  9. I think they are accounting for the lee-side minimum in these WWAs.  The centers of Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, etc. appear to have the least likely chances to meet WWA criteria, so they decided not to issue them.  I would feel better about my own chances if I were on the eastern side of Catawba County.  I think the NW corner, where I am, has the least likely chance of getting accumulating snowfall in this setup.

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