Floydbuster

You guys are being way too harsh. I honestly think we've been spoiled by more August activity than I was used to tracking when I was a kid/teen. This time in 2001, we had crap. But we still ended up having Cat 4 Iris and Cat 4 Michelle. This time in 2002, we were still weeks away from Hurricane Isidore and Hurricane Lili. I really think September 15-October 15th will be crucial. If that time is dead, then we can put a fork in it.

Here's a video on the tropics, as well as the active Pacific. https://youtu.be/5Yxx_FvKkOg

I still think Earl could become a hurricane after five days as it moves further north.

Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak. I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.

Looks tightly coiled. Gonna reach 90-100 mph for sure.

What is so amusing is that we were literally 3/0/0 on the morning of September 1st, and within the next week between this and 91L, we could technically be sitting at 5/2/2 in just seven days. I think both Danielle and 91L have a slight chance to reach Category 3 strength as they churn out to sea.

I think 91L needs closer watching.

This thing looks fantastic tonight compared to the last two days.

1988 also had Hurricane Joan, a Cat 4 into Nicaragua in October, 2001 had Hurricane Iris strike Belize as a devastating Cat 4 in October, and 2002 gave us Cat 4 Lili which struck Louisiana as a minimal hurricane in October. I always think of those seasons as "two storm seasons". Gilbert/Joan, Iris/Michelle, Isidore/Lili. That tells me we will likely have October or even November hurricanes this year.

I say go ahead and wait until tomorrow. We'll probably have both Danielle and Earl by weekend/early next week, but might as well make August 0/0/0.

Getting out to sea vibes, but I've also seen invest models like this wind up in Veracruz.

I see no reason why we've been so inactive. We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season. I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September.

Well, I will fall on my sword. I said we'd have a major hurricane by August 28th. We will not. That being said, I am kinda surprised why the GFS isn't more enthusiastic about Invest 91L.

The OOZ Euro shows the system on the doorstep of Southeast Florida in 240 hrs. The 00Z CMC shows the system just off the Bahamas, moving little in weak steering currents. This model also shows the system not gaining much longitude for about 4-5 days just east of the Lesser Antilles, however.

I would want to believe the Euro before GFS, wouldn't I?

Also, up until 2002, we all thought that Andrew had been 145 mph at landfall. So anytime we had a 145 mph hurricane, we'd all say it was "as strong as Andrew".

Euro ensembles definitely zero in on Florida.

The EURO ensembles are sniffing out this little thing that just flared up north of the Bahamas.

That's a very impressive wave leaving Africa.

I was always impressed by how long sustained winds were clocked. Sustained winds in most major landfalls don't last for long, and Andrew had some reports of 120-130 mph sustained for 10 minutes+ until instruments failed.

Yeah, hard to believe Michael's pressure was lower than Andrew. At the same time though, Andrew had very high background pressure. Funny thing though, it was clearly going to continue to deepen had it not struck Florida. My guess is that it might have gotten close to sub-900 mb. Makes me wonder if Andrew '92 was the return period storm for the '35 Labor Day hurricane.

It's been 30 years since the Category 5 storm struck South Florida, and then later Louisiana as a Category 3 hurricane. Here's a little retrospective for the 30th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew. Interestingly enough, going back and reading the data, Andrew was strengthening so fast upon landfall, that in the 25 minutes between the Elliot Key landfall and the Fender Point landfall, the pressure dropped 4 mb. That's a 4 mb pressure drop in 20-25 minutes. Crazy!

As the 12Z rolls out (and looks scary), it is interesting that last night I noticed the Central Atlantic convection around 55W getting slightly better defined. Noticing some ever-so-slight turning if you use your imagination.

We somehow lost a big dump of fantastic meteorological threads. It is such a shame all that historical discussion is gone. Sure, there were plenty of bad takes. But we were frequented by some really good experts and mets, and blessed a plethora of knowledge. Maybe someone can help, on a somewhat unrelated note, my entire browser is full of ads anytime I'm on this website. It didn't use to be like that. Is that normal? I can't even get to my "quote" box in the bottom right-screen.