OceanStWx

PEO gust to 63 knots. Real man stuff back in CNY.

Well the snow was short lived at home. But the good news is the solar panels shed 16" from the last event.

Don't like that. I do have you down for 6-7, but I need CON to flip otherwise I may need to upgrade.

The HRRR did have 38G65KT for 01z. If I had to pick something to rip and read right now, the HRRR looks fine.

Quick raob check, OKX had 55 knots at 925 mb. Assuming they launched on time around 23z, that's about 5 knots lower than the RAP (which is fed into the HRRR). NAM doesn't have 23z data, but knocking it's 00z forecast down a few knots has it forecasting 925 winds about 10-15 knots too high at this hour (similarly the GFS). Now it could just be a delay in the LLJ, but I think it's more likely the stronger winds are just more elevated than modeled.

I'm almost certainly going to start as snow at my place, but I have zero doubt I'll flip before my shift is up and I can get home an measure.

It was 100 kt on 12/18.

57 anywhere in CT? I would take the over. Up by you I just don't think it will be that high without a serious assist from convection.

Sure, the edge of the 60 kt winds are twice the height by the time you get up to your latitude, but other than that it's the same.

BDL in the summer, ORH in the winter, and ISP on a sou'easter.

I don't have the modeled LLJ for 12/18, but you can see the difference a bit in the EFI product. Remember this product isn't as simple as extreme = big wind, it just means unusual for this time of year. Much bigger CAD signal for this event. Also a much bigger downslope signal. The shift of tails (black lines, and the real indication of the higher end gusts) also are inverted for this event. Instead of values near 1 across the interior to the coast of Maine, they are all focused in the northwest downslope zones. I would be more surprised if GYX pops a 50 kt gusts than BTV.

Started as plain rain and your 60 kt gusts are going to bust. Tough day.

I'm just not as impressed as 12/18. The LLJ is weaker around here and there is plenty of snow/CAD. I'm more in the strong advisory (weak warning at the coast) camp.

Well some people believe that if you don't observe it, did it really happen.

Actually may be a better event for Kuchera.

Any warm near surface air is expended to melt the snowpack, keeping surface temps colder. This sets up an inversion which makes winds harder to mix down.

More for the higher terrain than Wolfeboro proper, but a 4-7" thump before a flip is not out of the question. The tough part about the watch text is that this is a grouping from Carroll County up through the Maine mountains and AUG. So it's a large area and the formatter just averages the totals out to 8-12". Much of that watch will be more like 4-7" or 5-8".

I was 12.5:1 in the morning, dropped to 10.5:1 by 1 pm, and the final measurement 9:1.

Yeah, that area of NH is a tough call right now. But none of the wind or flooding threats appear high enough for a headline right now, and snow is likely to remain advisory level so it doesn't need a watch either. So HWO is all you get. Bufkit is all over the place for LEB too. GFS 8 inches, NAM 5, HRRR 1.5 (but the HRRR is awfully close to a blue bomb profile).

I don't know if the threat is widespread enough for SPC to take notice, but CSU machine learning does have a little 5% wind tickling CT.

We can always catch the next cutter.

Really good consensus around GYX of 4-5 inches before a flip. I'm a little wary because the snow growth zones is so elevated that we can hang on to 15:1 ratios.

I think this one is going to need convection to help mechanically mix, because I don't see a lot of support for the LLJ alone doing it.

I'm seeing pros and cons. So far the magnitude of LLJ is not as high and not as consistent across the model suite. We have CAD in this event that just wasn't present on 12/18. It's a much more inverted sounding, so mixing will be more difficult. However, this event has more convection modeled that 12/18, and it could be all it takes to mix out the inversion briefly. We've also been discussing the impact of where those 50-60 mph winds occur. Relatively speaking we had fewer outages along the coast, where 50-60 mph happens a few times a year. But from I-95 into the mountains the grid was wrecked, because those kinds of wind speeds are not common.

Well a dog fart in Moosup can knock the power out in CT.