Ralph Wiggum

GFS has been all over the place. Euro and ICON have been steadfast. Not saying either is correct, just noting.

I know we were told not to read the models at this range (^^^) but we are closing in on a SECS for parts of the region for Monday-ish. ICON shifted the heaviest banding precariously close to the region. Upper levels are beginning to trend favorably with better confluence, better.nao position, and a better positioned and strength 50/50. Buckle up.

Crazy uncle UKIE pastes most of SE PA with a half foot of white gold early next week.

Next threat on the gfs looks...threatening. sweet 500mb setup

Well, it is the child of Doctor no so it is fitting... must be something in the algorithm's dna apparently. A little evil side that loves to f*ck us. Whenever someone posts that model I think of "Mini Me" from Austin Powers.

Let's see if the Wiggum Rule verifies since we hit 60 last week Dec. Need to see some flakes in the air at some point over the next 5 days.

Dafuq? Baja energy retrograding under the closed PNA ridge? Dont see that on the regular

This pattern is a sleep-depriver fr

I don't think we need to wait for the block to break down to get 'anything' but if we are expecting a MECS+ from RIC to BOS then yeah, probably. We should have chances tho regardless for some (relatively) smaller events.

Too much of a good thing.

Isn't it crazy that this has been our biggest issue in recent years? We can't get a balanced favorable telleconnection(s) anymore...it has to be off the charts.

@ravensrule thoughts?

It's differences in wave timing and separation. Chance of 2 storms that hit that same areas in the 1/6-1/10 arent great, just mho. What the ensembles are showing as 2 diff storms are actually: an earlier storm around the 6-7th with the followup being shunted s and e behind the 500mb flow out of the NW...or slower shortwave that has more time to dig as the NAO ridge retrogrades to Davis Strait and creates a euro-type situation centered around the 9th...thus is appears on the smoothed ens means as 2 different back to back storms when in reality they are unclear exactly which of the 2 waves to develop. I mean, my take could be 100% wrong....Feb 2010 happened. Not sure we should be rooting for 1 over the other. We likely get a shot at a bigger storm later as the pattern relaxes/reloads...at least that's how these telleconnections have worked in the past.

If you are banking on a HECS level event, then probably. Realistically could have 1 or 2 secs during this period then maybe the reality is our biggest storm happens when the pattern breaks down. At least that's 'normally' how it plays out.

Jan 6 has shown thumper/cutter for days why the sudden surprise?

Euro is a KU textbook storm between 1/7-1/10...2.5 feet Philly proper lol.

Cutter my ass bruh

Somebody broke the gfs. Don't see this everyday

CMC would have probably been a nice system with that kicker post 240. Just timing diffs and deciding which sw to phase between guidance families. Gonna be a fun couple of weeks.

CMC wanted to do something but kicker on the heels of the shortwave kept it from amplifying and kept it S and E

Eye spy a clipper dropping into the flow at 276

Did that earlier. Ran a cycle of seafoam thru to clean the gunk out of the carb

Flirting with 'folks' territory if we can get this under 6 days

Triple shot

Just like 18z gefs