Ralph Wiggum

Doesn't mean accumulating snow but probably will see some flakes fly by midweek. After around the 10th of Feb the wiggum rule % of verification begins to drop. We r right on the cusp.

Only thing I'd like to add to this discussion...it is nice to see these threats popping up on guidance right as the upper pattern changes. Might prove my prior thinking wrong ie we have to wait to cash in. Alot of this is going to come down to dynamics/phasing time/location... especially early on. The Feb 13 threat is dependent on rates it appears. Not really a simple task, but achievable. Clipper track around the 16th is going to be dependent on 50/50 and confluence location and the building NAO ridge as it retrogrades from Scandinavia. And lastly, the PD threat around the 18th give or take is going to rely on NS phasing with the stj at the right time and location which is a function of how the NAO is oriented at the time and how strong. Again, glad to see these pop up ahead of schedule and before the period I had originally circled on my calendar. This has the potential to be one of the best winter periods we've had in a while....but keep things in check because a fair amount still has to go right over the next 10 days. Pattern after this still looks ripe and active as well.

I see it....the NS phase the gfs is doing is good here. It was @psuhoffman that noted we wanted to see that and not the gfs way it had the PD3 systems prior 3 runs (amplifying the ns to our n and flattening the flow). This and and the euro can work and retain the pattern moving forward. Perfect! Awesome to see the ops sensing the HL blocking now and reflecting at the surface.

Iirc someone noted yesterday how we don't want the PD3 system unless we are hoping for a 1 and done. Destroys the long term pattern or something. All eggs in one basket type thing. Suppose if it's the 6z gfs solution tho, most would make that sacrifice.

Been looking at this also. Biggest difference I am seeing is the orientation of the height field in the NAO domain. In 2010 that was more flat (W to E?) which allowed for a more 'relaxed' appearance where the STJ was able to come N and hit us. This time around it is a more stout look and more of a N to S orientation which pushes on the flow underneath and is giving us the suppression hints. Maybe this first wave is in fact suppressed. Still a ways out. But even if, perhaps as the NAO pulses around the 23rd and on we get the STJ to pull a little more N. Seeing no signs of the NAO completely vanishing, so that is a plus. Eta: I do know the scale on those maps are off, but even so there is still a notable difference in the nao ridge orientation. Every little bit does matter and can make for a big change at the surface wrt track.

I know I took a break at the right time when I return and the chat is focused on Kamu's shrinking snow pile, honeybees, and sunflower seeds/millet/wild bird food. Nothing has changed from the thought I posted last week. Tantalizingly close tease 12th-15th (still think more wet than white, could be wrong). Pattern change happens at HL....stj becomes active and kicks a wave under us (suppressed?) 18th-20th. Bigger shortwave in the stj moves east after the 21st and will likely be the first legit threat for a juiced southern storm 23rd give or take. Then weeklies Continue the look into the first part of March with maybe a pattern-ending large threat as the calendar flips...give or take a couple days....but that is wayyyy out in fantasy land. Biggest takeaway for now....patience still. Not over yet.

Welcome to the discussion Chuck Yes, strong -ao at that and trending moreso past few day' progs.

If secs threat is "guys", mecs threat is "folks", then is this hecs tease "motherfuckers"? @stormtracker?

Couldn't agree more. I haven't posted much lately but echoed pretty similar thoughts wrt the pattern progression a day or so ago in my home forum. This is going to require an insane amount of patience, especially as we sift thru a rainer (or 2?) to get closer to this threat window.

This touted pattern change is going to require alot of patience...even more than usual. Big Aleutian low sets up around the 13th, wave breaks and NAO ridge builds a few days later in response to the big EPO ridge and +PNA that the Aleutian low triggers. I think Iceman is on the right track, but these setups generally don't yield meaningful wintry weather here until 5-7 days after the NAO pulses then starts to relax. So I could see a rainer around VD but a relative close call event as the NAO goes neg.....that system moves into the 50/50 region as the TPV wobbles around on the backside of the NAO domain ridging. Split flow out west kicks a STJ wave east around the 19th-20th......but given the progression of the pattern, realistically we are probably looking towards the 3rd week of Feb...few days after the 21st give or take, for a legit threat. That's how I'm seeing it anyway. Thats all I got....back to taking a break. Patience.

Anyway, thoughts on the AFC game? You folks get to watch the Ravens each week,we don't have that luxury in PA. How do they match-up? Is KC really an underdog here? I like The Ravens today but want to hear why they are going to beat KC. Is their D pretty good? Secondary vs linebackers etc.

Did he though? Or was his approach just more to suit what you want to hear? He said the same thing but instead of saying the day 14 looks degraded and maybe it's just a delay from the original Feb 11 change, as I stated....he said the pattern change still looks to be coming around mid month (Feb 15) so everything still looks good. Just 2 different posting styles imho saying essentially the same thing.

Geez, need to be strong around here when posting anything that isnt rainbows and unicorns. Ppl like @psuhoffman, @Stormchaserchuck1, and @Ralph Wiggum (me btw ) get bum rushed with torches when posting anything that isnt the majority rule.

Ninjad I think my comments were misconstrued here. I am saying the same darn thing lol. Instead of the rush to bring this change that last 3 days of runs were doing, we are back to our original al schedule around mid month. So technically, we unkicked the can (rushing things) and kicked it back. As you were.

I think guidance was rushing the change and we are back to where we were a week ago. Looking more towards the middle of the month. We got too excited seeing it showing sooner than originally forecast. CAPE is on some kick a out me and the WAR but that feature was our friend in 2016 and was a friend 3 weeks ago right before the pattern flipped and we got our 10 days of winter. That WAR is a natural.progression on this pattern evolution. It's not a phobia lol. We will get there and we will haveanour stretch of winter. But in reality, should we expect 5 straight weeks of a wi ter via a locked in pattern or should we temper our expectations and hope for another 7-10 day stretch in there with a possible big storm? I think this goes both ways....ppl set themselves up for so.e fantasy extending KU pattern locking in for 6 weeks. We all know that is super rare. Could it happen? Maybe. But we should he balanced in our thoughts and realistic too.

? I don't want to debate. I'm not here to 'ruin your vibe' as you state either. I want the epic pattern as much as anyone. But why should we cherry pick? I'm optimistic when it is deemed a good road where we are headed and pessimistic when the data appears to have taken a step back. This is a step back. Again, I didn't say winter cancel. It might just be a small delay. We don't know yet. But truth is, we dojt want to delay too much. Maybe we just are rushing things and the change is closer to the 15th, not the 12th. I hope that's the case.

Here are the 3 major ens around Feb 10 just priot to where the weeklies were showing our large scale pattern change (around the 11th/12th). All 3 are basically lock step with one another. The trof in the SE is slower to move out and stronger. Haven't that delay in timing and the strength, it allows heights to rise along the SE. Now maybe this is just a delay, but there's no sense glazing over the data staring at us. The look degraded overnight and this isn't a good trend we want to see right now:

As I sort of expected but refrained from posting til now for fear of being run off the board and ruining the good vibes...the weeklies and monthly data may have been teasing us with the super epic textbook can't possibly fail looks. This data generally is heavily weighted using past analogs/climatology averages, so it's not surprising to see those forecasts focused heavily on an Aleutian low on roids and blocking at HL. That puts all the blues and reds in the right spots. But as things move closer in time and the ensembles get in range that are weighted more with current data, the smoothed looks decay and more accurate forecasting results. Anyway, not liking the trof burying itself in the SW and the SER pumping. Saw this already in Dec and it kicked the can til 2nd week Jan. If we kick the can now same way, we are into March. Let's hope the models are belching and come back where they were 48 hrs ago.

Overnight models runs ops and ens were a trainwreek. Tough time of the season to potentially be kicking the can. But at least we have the Ravens today!

Don't need an expert to state what you just said. You nailed it. Trof buries itself essentially in the SW and the height rise in the SE eventually forming a WAR that bridges the SE Canada Ridge and the SER. Has happened a few times already this season. Wouldn't bridge jump tho. Maybe just a small delay...we just can't know yet.

GFS op has really been trying to bury that trof in the SW the past few runs and now trending towards pumping a SER in response after the 5th. Think its best to use the ens for now.

Overall look is smoothed but leans suppression. Not complaining I would much rather see this as we enter mid feb-march than a pig SER.

An inch of snow per day avg here over the next 35 days...sign me up!

I dare not post it in some of the other subs, but in recent years we have seen our share of epic patterns that just haven't produced though they clearly should have. It will be interesting to see if we go thru another stretch where things slip thru the cracks and get away from us in what used to be a pattern that historically 20 years ago would easily produce. If we can't score a warning criteria storm during this stretch, then the elephant in the room is going to get some very dirty looks from me.

Feb 5 looking interesting on the ensembles. Large S Central Canada ridge with a wave undercutting it. Big ull spinning over coastal Maine. Cold air available. Ops are meh. Then the ens and weeklies go bonkers after the 10th thru mid March. Buckle up.