Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. What would you be thinking about 20 miles NW of the 'rents? Going to be a really tight gradient.
  2. Looks good to me for our area. 2-5" Turns over to snow relatively early in the day. Sharp gradient but our area usually does ok with these systems.
  3. I noted that 700mb warm tongue from 18z run is not nearly as toasty this run which is a good step. Wonder if other 0z guidance follows suit?
  4. Is the ukie that reliable with thermal levels as much as the NAM or rgem though?
  5. Possibly on the sleet. The NAM closes off a 700mb low over Delaware then tracks it inland which is the kiss of death. So that warm tongue will certainly spell sleet and a lot of it for some folks imho. Not sure where that zone lies just yet.
  6. Q-town I would think the bust potential is very high with this one on either side. Whoever sits under that death band is gonna get a really good thump and could bust low. Those in subsidence on either side where it struggles to freeze could also bust too high with totals.
  7. Mid levels look warm...could be a death band of sleet between the transition zone.
  8. 000 FXUS61 KPHI 250534 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 **WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ** 500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR 06Z THURSDAY. THE STORM... OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY. NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR. THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST. ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA. WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS. ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330 PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS. COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO 2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN. THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR. PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL MODERATE DURING THE EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD. RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF 1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS 0.1 INCHES. AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING. DRAG/FRANCK
  9. Feeling about the same way you are for the I95 corridor. However about 25 miles N and W will be a completely different story.
  10. This is going to end up closing off an h5 low. Watch as we start getting closer to the event especially the meso/hires models.
  11. Saw that. Im right on the edge....rain to start here then quickly to frozen. Im thinking 2-5" for our general area seems like a good bet.
  12. NAN looks decent....rain to slop to accumulating snow for most.
  13. Great run from the Euro! 998mb east of acy Much colder which goes without saying.