Ralph Wiggum

First flakes of the season just started to fall. Breezy. Oak tree leaves and flakes flying. Best autumn ever. 100% snow no pings. Going to be a fun day.

Just had my traditional pre-snow whopper in your honor sir. I know your name is a hazardous waste thing but cant help continuing the tradition I began 3 seasons ago. I'm sure my waistline and arteries arent very happy campers though. 31F here no flakes yet but on the doorstep to Bucksco

700vvs and forcing near the DE/PA border moving N is nothing short of insane. Looks summertime convective lol. Going to be some nice reports over the next few hours expanding N and NW.

Love the gritty avatar! Go flyers! 32/21

Fox 29 reporter just came on and said he is wasting his time and it looks like the snow isn't coming as scheduled for his 9am live shot. LMAO at reporters already calling a bust

Ah, I was curious if you were at the one around the corner from me on Street in Warminster. Was gonna roll up and spring for hot coffees. Maybe next time. GL today everyone!!

32f/20

Which wawa?

Fox 29 AN snowfall entire viewing area for the upcoming area. Very active back end of the season ie Feb and March.

I fear this is the groundwork we are laying down early for this upcoming season. Didnt like the mid range teaser but more disturbing imo is the last minute shift to an inside runner (slp almost right over the Del River now on the approach) and lack of ull influence. As u said....wrong direction.

Since this is a daytime event mostly I will point out sun angle is generally the same now as the the last few days of January or first couple days of Feb so that should be a non factor anyway. Travel has a decent chance of being impacted n and w especially if road crews just shrug this one off.

^^^Btw that is the 0z euro u posted not the 6z. 6z cut totals by like 2/3s across most of PA outside of the Apps. 6z was a huge cave. I would post map but from a pay site and policy violation.

Was more or less referring to slp positioning and more importantly warm tongue blasting thru at 850 mb now. Lots of sleet (to rain far SE PA) for many outside of the mountains and high high hills of interior and N PA. Those euro snow maps (among others) are laughable quite honestly and should be discontinued until sleet and fzra are eliminated from the algorithm.

Good read! Refreshing to see I am not the lone man on an island with my thoughts anymore

Just glanced at the 6z euro. Caving to the gfs more tucked and warmer solution. Winter of yore or winter of the tease coming? If we put the experimental gfs mid range and euro on lockdown maybe we can avoid the teases.....euro has been bad dating back to 2 seasons with last minute caving and I can already see the new gfs has a cold bias in medium range.

So if we see any accumulations do they get factored into seasonal totals or do these statistically fall into autumn category?

No changeover here on the NAM either until dryslotted then the usual 32-33f drizzle.

I was thinking the same and even the NAMs are backing down so yeah.

Hold up....u moved?

Looks like 12z suite so far is a bit more tucked with the slp just inside the coastline and thus slightly warmer. Looking more sleet than white here and for many. Agree with Iceman above quick thump with a relatively quick transition to sleet then slowly to cold rain for nearby NW burbs. Temps right around freezing up in my area of Bucks. Glad I'm off Thursday :-)

Of course a neg nao would throw a wrench like I put in the outlook. But i am siding with history and recent trends and thinking we dont see a 'sustained' neg nao.

Exactly and thus why I'm not overly concerned with my winter thoughts/outlook post. Yes...active storm track. Yes, ample moisture. Yes, El Nino. BUT you cant just assume this means plenty of snow. My analog winters had all 3 of the factors I noted above but ended up with storm tracks similar to what we have seen so far this fall and with this upcoming storm and yielded not so much snowfall in the city after hopeful late fall starts. We can only hope the track shifts as we get deeper into winter....if u like lots of snowfall in Philly. Otherwise a frustrating season is coming along I95. Hoping we r wrong Iceman but I would much rather be conservative in this pattern than go all-in with a monster snowfall season. Far interior should do really well tho.

Hurricane Schwartz going with a winter of Yore with above normal snow for Philly 30-40" and says those numbers are conservative. I feel like a man all alone on an island with BN snowfall season for Philly proper.

3k NAM seems most plausible irt snow thump vs taint thump with fewer flakes and more mixing specifically outside of far n and w zones and higher elevations:

Was and am still very skeptical of accumulating snow S and E of a line from say Pottstown, Reading, Allentown (roughly) but NAM and Euro now in agreement for a decent front end thump to sleet to rain even down to the Del River. Hard to go against the NAM/Euro tandem (EE rule). Slowly gaining more optimism.