Ralph Wiggum

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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum

  1. Whats terrible about that? Its a mean which is showing a ridge out west and a trof in the East with a flat Se ridge. Looks ok to me for a mean.
  2. Leave the gun...take the cannolis: http://youtu.be/yHzh0PvMWTI
  3. 18z gfs shows development into a classic pattern where a system moves into 50/50 with a cpf and also trailing front down thru the GOM (which extends back to the deep Pacific...Pineapple Connection with deep moisture trail). Low pressure wave develops on front in GOM and heads Northeast into the 50/50 position...pattern continues. Would be a sweet pattern for big chances thats why I have my eyes on the dec 27-Jan 5 period for something more widespread. Euro shows a similar pattern setting up though we get there completely differently. Should be a fun period coming up once we get these rainstorms out of the way.
  4. Major blocking pattern setting up towards the end of 2014 into early 2015. Couple this with a SE Ridge that looks to establish plus an active southern jet and the players are on the field for a winter storm to take aim at us somewhere between 12/27-1/5. I know that's a wide range of days but with all the disturbances moving thru its tough this far out to determine which will produce but the progs suggest at least one of these develops into our first 'widespread' snow of the season somewhere during that period. WOOF on the pattern developing!
  5. Eventually it WILL get beaten down but I think we score a snow event for the region as that happens. Hard to go against the Euro when it shows the SE Ridge rather firmly established thru the long range:
  6. We (PHL/NYC) will see our first significant snowstorm of the season sometime between 12/27-1/5 based on the pattern developing. As Iso said, the Christmas storm essentially kickstarts the pattern change. The storm around the 27th should aid in pumping heights South and West of Greenland. Block cuts off, Southern jet remains active, weak SE Ridge in place....somethings gotta give. Patience people....we have a few sacrificial lambs before the big show.
  7. Im not buying it. A setup with a sub 980mb slp spinning over the GL wrapping cold air quickly around the backside of the low as it occludes should yield snow showers or a squall on the leeside across NY/PA and maybe into the big cities. Colder air will filter in quicker than depicted is what I'm getting at. It's ok to disagree, I just see the GooFuS model hinting at this scenario. Mood flakes would be nice, hopefully not the drizzle you speak of.
  8. Since when does the surface need to be at 32F to get flakes flying? Come on Yanks, you're not new to this so stop acting like its your first day.
  9. Look again....snow showers and a squall for Christmas Day. Granted its the crappy GFS but it's still there. Im not at all that impressed, but mood flakes anyway :-)
  10. Strongly agree....the SE Ridge is coming and there is no escaping it. However this keeps systems from sliding off the coast usually and with a block building in Canada, I only see this as a plus. Not buying a GFS (lol) solution this far out....maybe under 84 hours. Euro seems to be handling things consistently for the most part.
  11. Seems like long rangers were popping EPO ridges out west....few materialized. Some long rangers were introducing high lat blocking but this never came about. Storm on the 20-21st was supposed to be our pattern changer. Nope. This is just how it has seemed to me.
  12. I completely agree as I posted. All signs point toward high lat blocking and we should in fact realize a pattern shift by the start of 2015 towards a colder and stormier regime.
  13. So I guess now we wait and see if the Euro was just suffering from one of its biases or if the SE ridge will really be flexing later next week.
  14. The pattern has looked good 2-weeks out ever since October. Nothing has really materialized. However this is the time the pattern should really change post NYE. At least Nino climatology tells us so.
  15. 216 - 1005mb LP St Louis. Major SE Ridge developing with 1024+mb HP firmly in place off the SE Coast
  16. 192 - 972mb north of Ottawa!!...ridge in center on nation with trof developing out west. Storm ejecting out of Rockies.
  17. 168 hours 992 slp upper Michigan and secondary 986 mb NY/Connecticut border. Flat ridge developing out West.
  18. 144 hours low zips due East. Meanwhile 996 mb slp around Milwaukee