Ralph Wiggum

https://www.foxnews.com/world/storm-ciara-hurricane-force-winds-uk-europe-travel-impacts

Nice to see Giroux hit a milestone tonight.

Flyers look good.

Yep. I must agree also. Probably wont work out....again....but nothing else to talk about weather wise tbh

ICON at 12z is a SECS for our area for Valentines Day. Not saying its right....it likely isnt. But let's try this one more time.

Burst of moderate wet snow right now. Wiggum Rule is alive and well.

More wet flakes mixing here at the moment. Looks like some more snow showers back building. We take.

Flakes mixing in here periodically.

Meh

Going to turn to severe weather soon. I have a gut feeling we miss out on decent March snows this year. Maybe a fluke rogue system but I see nothing that is hinting at a favorable late season pattern after next week tbh. Weeklies hinted at HL blocking but will probably be too little too late. We dont even have the widespread cold bottled in the HL this year, more like some idolized arctic air focused around the PV and that's it. Many unfrozen bodies of water that are usually solid ice, ssts still AN, etc. I say bring on the thunder, striped bass, and Phillies (and hopefully Flyers playoffs)!!

The window I have been keying on is upon us (Feb 6-14) and could very well be our last chance before the SE Ridge tries to go full latitude and lock in the 2nd half of Feb. Best shot at something appears to be developing closer to the middle/end of this period and the Great Valentine's Day Storm of 2020 may also in fact be a legit entity if you believe several pieces of guidance. Alot of well-timed players would need to interact but they are at least all showing up on the field. Bowling ball Southern low, PV wobbling thru the 50/50 region, strong arctic hp, northern energy attempting to merge with the big ull.

0z has it at 957mb. I have a feeling the NAM is suffering from convective feed back issues. Just a guess.

We may salvage winter after all!

Meh, just your ordinary everyday 962mb low pressure off of AC

NAMs are very close are getting some deformation band snows in the NW burbs tomorrow in response to a 974mb low. Very dynamic setup.

Sorry to hear this @mappy positive thoughts and vibes coming you and your sister's way. I hope she recovers quickly

Loving the rogue blob over my area in Bucksco lol. I think the NAM is making it personal and playing cruel games at this point.

I will upload it when I get the chance and all data has been entered.

Horrible. Sat-Sun is a very basic very bread n butter way we almost always score 1-4". Only this year could such a simple setup completely sh!t the bed. Really is incredible if you think about it.

Nothing is guaranteed. Ever.

Trends. Desperate times call for desperate measures:

NAMs have rain turning to wet snow friday as the storm wraps up. Usually doesnt work out but this winter I think many would take white rain at this point.

Any flakes is a win....even a flurry. I didnt discriminate in the study. Larger events generally dont fall into the categorical research. During offseason I may post the graphs I have been working on. The most common event for this study was flurries to 2". Warning events only occurred here 7% of the time with the former mentioned 77%! The other 16% were 2-5" events. I never expect much from the Wiggum Rule tbh but find it intriguing to watch the rubber band snap back and bring winter back even if short-lived. Btw the date range for this to work is quickly fading as Feb 14 is the cutoff for the research I have done.

It was a research paper, not a book lol.

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.