Ralph Wiggum

Careful what you wish for. With that epo ridge on roids, a + PNA tandem could be too much of a good thing (polar cold but dry). I will roll the dice with the epo and some cpf with a flattish negative pna ejecting waves along the thermal boundary.

Eagles are playing like this thaw....weak and short-lived.

Until he mentions 'mint'

Always refreshing when we can start to track the end of an impending, albeit brief, shit the blinds pattern.

Nevermind. That was like claiming a model run is going to be epic before letting it finish only to see it was a turd run after all.

How tf are the Commodes winning this game?

Only posting it because there's not much going on next week or so. But op at range has a CPF showing up and stj getting active. Let's see what the gefs has to say shortly:

Sounds like a hot take we shouldn't ignore

Maybe that system on the 15th can move into the 50/50 for a followup wave.

That was so close. Southern energy, cold nearby, phasing. Looks like something behind it possibly. Clearly not a winter cancel run. Just for the winter is over crew, I'll drop this here

If you could live thru the Blizzard of 66 KU storm knowing the end result, would you stay at your home base and enjoy a classic KU snowstorm or would you travel to Oswego and endure the 8.5' of LES? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1966

Was loading up a jaws at the end too. Nice run. Step back from the ledge my friends! Eta: waiting for someone to chime in and overanalyze hr 384 on the ai and remind me the hp is pulling away and how we lose in that setup

The only ones cliff diving are the folks that set their expectations higher than a cliff thus the jump. Fact is, neither of our respective regions are notoriously snowy, so expectations always need to remain tempered. Ive grown to assume every winter will be AN temps wall-to-wall with either a drought or zero snowfall. Haven't been disappointed in years.

For anyone that wants to play along (disclaimer: i truly hate dissecting model data in the long range but for the sake of the sanity of some members...) .....this 500mb chart depicts a weak trof in the West and a flattened SER. Im not going to repeat what @CAPEand I have discussed repeatedly the past 3 or 4 days. Just because you see blue out west and red in the east does not spell disaster. Top map is the 500mb chart at 366, below that are the 2m and 850 temps respectively.

If those are going to be the ground rules then AI can just create the threads. Scary to think that's where forecasting might be headed. The days of humans making the calls will be a thing of the past someday probably. I hope not, but you can kind of see the beginnings of that now. Heck, some of the weather apps just use the GFS output and an AI system fills in the forecast and sends it to the app.