Ralph Wiggum

RGEM is another nice hit

OK so we get half of Dec BN then 2 weeks N/AN....thats fair. Then if you believe the weeklies we get 1st half Jan N/AN with 2nd half N/BN. If you told be in Sept we would have half of D/J cold and potentially active I would take that 8 days a week over a complete blowtorch all winter. When do we ever get wall to wall cold? Half of each month will suffice just fine.

FV3 essentially misses the area and is wayyyy South. RGEM is a SECS is 7" lollis in Monmouth Cty

You are now obligated to change your name to Jenkins Jinxes when this actually happens.

Meso event...lean towards meso models

Looking like the first shovelable snow for a good chunk of the region. Discuss the jawn here. Go Birds!

GFS is always the last to nudge North

RGEM is a nice swatch of 4-6". Nice to see things coming together rather than the opposite

Im fine with this if it isnt going to be vodka cold or snowing. I can open the windows on Christmas and air out the stink that is my mother-in-law.

No rgem love? Northern crew looks decent there.

Not that we've ever seen it before (sarcasm), but I wonder if the LR MJO forecast phases could be incorrect? Seeing alot of posts over the past 36 hrs "mjo says cold phase so its gotta be cold". It doesn't gotta be anything if the MJO forcing is incorrect.

My point exactly. 2 weeks out going to flip flop quite a bit. Saw that over the last 24 hours already wrt that time period

Yep, and just 3 runs ago was an epic winter storm.

And the cold is even Westivus for Festivus

OK, so let's skip over the next 5-6 days and go right to the monster Christmas Eve winter storm. Isn't 'perfect' but that is plenty close enough for me. Only need it to hold for about 60 more runs. 42 straight hours of wintry precip: