Ralph Wiggum

Wow!

Whereas my crew is saying I was the only one mentioning mix Tuesday pm and giving premature props for a conservative outlook. On the other hand, if this does trend colder/snowier, then Im a clown

You guys are weather ppl. How do you not have ice melt going into winter or at least 5 days ago seeing this on guidance, whether real or mirage? Stocked up on ice melt 3 weeks ago. And for good measure, hit the grocery store Monday. Scrambling last minute is for the birds. Rookies

Saw this in March 2018(?) where the gfs was all snow from a coastal but the NAM continually showed a warm tongue going all the way back to York County. We all just shrugged it off as the hi res nam over forecasting the warm tongue. It was correct and actually not aggressive enough with that feature. Iirc, the gfs never even caved to the nam, it just stubbornly bombed that storm forecast.

You're just upset because this will put a dent in the drought

In any event, this time Saturday we will be watching a huge swath of snow creeping towards the region with no worries of a miss. Been a while since we have been able to watch a big frozen qpf bomb encroach on our areas.

GFS is often the last to budge and can be very stubborn holding onto a solution. It also lacks support from other guidance at the moment. Im not saying anything definitive but I would be very surprised if the GFS op was leading the way here.

@Ji did you come across this one yet? Sorry it is for NYC but this Playlist is relaxing asf:

A dying primary in SW PA associated with ull won't do as you said. Need those features in TN Valley

Cmon seasonal Nina atmos memory, sloppy phase, sloppy phase!

12z NAM, which shouldn't be taken verbatim at this range, develops the coastal low way west of its 6z run and tucks it and crawls it N-NNE. That scenario does us no good as mid levels torch and coastal is hugging the coast. Unless it bombs out and stalls, would just end as sleet and ice whereas some guidance had levels crashing and a ccb wraparound developing giving us a 'part 2' of accum snow. Will just have to watch where other guidance develops the coastal and the strength.

Still plows that primary into the ov and slower to redevelop off coast this run. Alot of balancing out of features that yield a very similar result at the surface. Alas, its the nam at range.

2 extremely trustworthy models at range.

Not just this but ive been watching it develop off of SC, then off of NC (this was when we were looking golden), and now develops at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay down near VA Beach. If this is the case, ie develop it farther N and W, then we need the low to go East from there. Keep an where 12z develops the 2ndary...more east is better here.

What time does the morning euro come out?