Ralph Wiggum

Wow first sleet pellet or flake has fallen and already getting a 'bust' vibe from some of you guys. Please dont ever change

Just to note, I really dislike 'unicorn' hunting in the very long range. Mainly because of past lessons personally learned. But, we are also not in a shutout pattern and we've seen stuff pop up under 120 hours. So while the LR has a flat western ridge, a split flow coming into the west coast, ridging up top, etc Imma keep my eyes on the next 5 days for now.

EPS for reference:

Welcome aboard!

Trend was clearly South past 3 runs.

We had blocking a good chunk of the past 2 winters. The nao is currently east-based. It isnt set to transition to a west based (more favorable) -nao until middle of next week....and even there is a little east of where we would like to see it. You need more than blocking to get a good storm. That is only 1 aspect. Eta: there is also quite a difference between a ridge in the nao and a true closed block.

Ukmet is messy, not a horrible run if you like snow and mix

Thats what I was waiting for. Ty

Updated:

Yep. Complete nowcast event probably.

I dont believe this is a "non event".

AIGFS all snow SE PA

Hrrr looks like the upgraded NAM with NYC dryslotted and a stripe over S PA. Model mayhem

Fv3 is a significant snowstorm ha!

Wow even NyC hardly sees a flake.