Ralph Wiggum

Just before the rgem flips se pa to sleet.

Ahh, my bad. And there you had me all excited.

Exactly. @high risk already mentioned this would be ran on Saturday 1/24

Could you imagine if this keeps trending into just another nickel and dime event for SE PA?

Looks the same as 12z to my eyes.

Im telling you, it can be a real stubborn s.o.b. at times. If it doesnt budge and it is wrong, they seriously should retire it.

Leaning on the GFS? Interesting. From your keyboard to God's monitor. Lfg!

100% outlier. I mentioned earlier today, the gfs will cling to an outlier solution right up to and even during the start of an event at times. It's a stubborn s.o.b. but dont fall for it.

Wow!

Whereas my crew is saying I was the only one mentioning mix Tuesday pm and giving premature props for a conservative outlook. On the other hand, if this does trend colder/snowier, then Im a clown

You guys are weather ppl. How do you not have ice melt going into winter or at least 5 days ago seeing this on guidance, whether real or mirage? Stocked up on ice melt 3 weeks ago. And for good measure, hit the grocery store Monday. Scrambling last minute is for the birds. Rookies

Saw this in March 2018(?) where the gfs was all snow from a coastal but the NAM continually showed a warm tongue going all the way back to York County. We all just shrugged it off as the hi res nam over forecasting the warm tongue. It was correct and actually not aggressive enough with that feature. Iirc, the gfs never even caved to the nam, it just stubbornly bombed that storm forecast.

You're just upset because this will put a dent in the drought

In any event, this time Saturday we will be watching a huge swath of snow creeping towards the region with no worries of a miss. Been a while since we have been able to watch a big frozen qpf bomb encroach on our areas.

GFS is often the last to budge and can be very stubborn holding onto a solution. It also lacks support from other guidance at the moment. Im not saying anything definitive but I would be very surprised if the GFS op was leading the way here.