Ralph Wiggum

Im not loving all 3 major ens systems taking the system farther off the coast at 0z. If we are going to have a reversal like last system, changes need to happen by 12z wednesday imo. This was looking better 24 hrs ago but there is still time.

Not with a positively tilted trough

I thought out west improved slightly

This has been brought up several times today by other posters including but not limited to chill and psu. you are slow to call bingo.

These models are also precariously close to sliding off the coast and being a graze job. Hope this storm follows seasonal trends. Would make for quite a KU

Getting a weird vibe here that spots that messed out yesterday cash in next weekend and vice versa ie southeastern zones in this sub

Past storm was a different setup synoptically tho wasnt it? I am not hedging any bets regardless.

In an fairness the window i was watching was 27-29, the clipper i thought would dive and bomb at the coast. Which it does but too late for any effects but that does become our 50/50 for the weekend, so there's that.

Funny thing is, and I remember because I posted the image about 8 days ago, models were showing a clear Miller A for the same time frame. Kind of got muted for a bit after, but now obviously is showing up again. If any of the big deterministic guidance besides the euro jumps on board today, this place is going to erupt.

6z is a vertically stacked monster reminiscent of Jan.25, 2000. Below are the 250, 500, 700, 850 maps valid 1am feb 1. Verbatim a big hit especially interior. Dry slot would assuredly push into the metros as the system occludes, again jan.25, 2000ish. Alas, plenty of time to go for better or worse. There is plenty that could go wrong here. Gotta run.

Thats a vertically stacked system at 6z or very close. Someone mentioned jan 25, 2000. I cant unsee it.

Euro AI:

Euro AI has been on fire at this range (4-6 days). I would lean towards that.

That separation of 50/50 and better positioning of h5 ull is drool worthy. Nao ridge and pna arent too shabby either.

Eps for Feb 1: