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CT Rain

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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    NAM and GFS MOS have 11 at BDL tonight!
  2. CT Rain
    ECMWF may not be that much. I think it's tough to just based on the 3 or 6 hour increments.
  3. CT Rain
    GFS is cold with one hell of a thump around 12z Friday too
  4. CT Rain
    This is what I've got.
  5. CT Rain
    I feel better up here about the 3-6... I feel like SW CT is the wild card but I see no reason why they can't thump.
  6. CT Rain
    Could be - though I think we've got the sleet problem where sleet is included in the total.
  7. CT Rain
    Thinking about 3-6" north and west of HVN... 1-3" for SE CT except <1 immediate shore from Old Lyme east. Can't ignore the colder trends and seems like the 3km NAM is an outlier with it's warm pockets compared to models like the ECMWF.
  8. CT Rain
    Seems like the GFS turned a bit more impressive but not much.
  9. CT Rain
    NAM close to an isothermal flash back to snow on the backside Friday.
  10. CT Rain
    18z ECMWF is pretty bullish on the front end thump. More bullish than 12z.
  11. CT Rain
    And it begins
  12. CT Rain
    Thinking 2-4" for most of CT now with a T-2 coastal SE CT
  13. CT Rain
    I think the EPS probabilities for 1, 3, and 6"+ of snow are pretty reasonable.
  14. CT Rain
    I could see an extended period of freezing drizzle here in the valley as we rot with in situ CAD
  15. CT Rain
    Yeah the key like we've said is to keep that initial thump impressive. If we can manage a good burst of omega we can certainly rock for a few hours. Even coastal CT could see several inches of accumulation I think.
  16. CT Rain
    The boundary layer cold is so impressive I think some of the normal early season rules don't apply. That airmass is ridiculous.
  17. CT Rain
    Yes it is. I think we want to see a trend toward this with the really good initial omega/thump. This sounding is for Hartford... already 0.65" of QPF by this point.
  18. CT Rain
    Yup. The nice thing is we are anomalously cold Thursday with that high and associated cold/dry BL. I have 18 Thursday am lol
  19. CT Rain
    But yeah the GFS is cold af. Those soundings are pretty impressive around Hartford.
  20. CT Rain
    I agree. Maybe something a bit disjointed... but not like that.
  21. CT Rain
    The follow up nuke on the GFS is weird on Friday. Sort of disjointed with the thump and then the coasta low.
  22. CT Rain
    Don't hate a 1036 hpa high overhead Thursday AM
  23. CT Rain
    18z Euro has sort of a weird look.
  24. CT Rain
    I mean the FV3 is just pornographic. That H7 track. *drool*
  25. CT Rain
    The 18z FV3 was run out of Kevin's basement.
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