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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    I was joking. The meltdowns here would be pretty epic.
  2. CT Rain
    Once you start getting >+3c in that warm layer you nuke the ice nuclei pretty quickly - unless the warm layer is super shallow. Even if you're 10F in the boundary layer you're going to get ZR with an all liquid drop.
  3. CT Rain
    Watch this whole thing miss. Congrats DC?
  4. CT Rain
    How about the Euro with a -1F 2m temp at 18z Monday.
  5. CT Rain
    Still looks tough for a lot of snow here in CT. Almost looks like we’ll be straddling the PL/ZR line for a while.
  6. CT Rain
    Poor Kevin. Lost his 1.5" of ZR.
  7. CT Rain
    Juicy AF too
  8. CT Rain
    As easy it is for me to solve the equations of motion in my head.... you've gotta think that look would make it hard to get a super phase.
  9. CT Rain
    I'd pay 20 bucks for that evolution.
  10. CT Rain
    Yup. That's the way these things tend to go... unless of course we phase too early and then all bets are off.
  11. CT Rain
    I mean it's also tough to get a low to cut through the Berkshires/Albany. It can happen but you've gotta favor Jersey Shore/Long Island.
  12. CT Rain
    Valley may be more at risk. ECMWF has the classic valley wedge look. Not bad for a global model 5 days out!
  13. CT Rain
    It certainly has that ice look. As always the worst area is pretty narrow as sleet generally becomes predominant. Even a surface low in Long Island Sound probably keeps BDL locked in below 32.
  14. CT Rain
    I think you're right. We'll see how the upper levels shake out - if we get the earlier phase or not. Obviously with the cold to the north there's quite a risk for some big time icing.
  15. CT Rain
    GFS solution is pretty close to the best clustering of EPS surface lows (over Albany).
  16. CT Rain
    Kevin's 5:30 a.m. temper tantrum on text message was great lol
  17. CT Rain
    I thought the 00z EPS were a bit better but the 06z EPS were fairly ugly with most models inland.
  18. CT Rain
    Sure. Wouldn’t take much for the forecast to change. I also said in every weathercst that it wouldn’t take much for this to be a cutter and for us to get mainly rain.
  19. CT Rain
    You’ve been saying that. And you’re wrong.
  20. CT Rain
    Those are such garbage. GFS can't get out of its own way.
  21. CT Rain
    GFS is a crusher on Friday. Warning criteria it looks like.
  22. CT Rain
    People actually use the ICON?
  23. CT Rain
    Pretty ugly IMO
  24. CT Rain
    That was the one. I was actually home on spring break from college and it was a disaster.
  25. CT Rain
    Yeah that looks to me like mid 20s at BDL and 50s for GON lol
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