CT Rain

Torrtington, CT on 12z Friday. Oof.

Sure does

You got robbed in 2012... places just west of you had a foot!

I will say the boundary layer doesn't look like an issue with a really good cold source and nice northerly ageostrophic flow. Could surprise to the coast.

Jealous. Was just there this summer - it's awesome!

That is wild. Thanks for sharing your story! You finally got your storm!!

Most of the time it's a pit for severe!

TDS on Fishers Island. Pretty remarkable.

Wow - for sure! Impressive couplet there.

GFS is very cold through 12z

Congrats Dave!

Those clown maps. Dear lord. Maybe some pre-12z parachutes in far NW CT?

Pretty close to some accumulating snow in the hills of NW CT and W Mass Saturday morning.

Is Ginx OK? I spy some TTs of 60 for 9z tomorrow!

Looks like all rain to me. Even north of here.

I definitely have a different take. I thought the intensity forecasts were flat out bad. Not sure they could have done anything different but I certainly did not expect the 3rd most powerful US landfall on record - even 24 hours out! There's not much they could have done differently though. We suck at intensity forecasting. Thankfully this struck a sparsely populated area - but forecast busts with intensity matter and they certainly have the ability to kill. How many people who expected a 4 in NC from Florence and got a cat 1 won't listen next time?

I mean his posts are so absurd normally. That one really was the worst in a while.

Cranky thinks it's a cat 1.

Brings the thing over the Cape. Run from Jimmy's basement.

Seems like the PRE may wind up over the Great Lakes (Michigan). Plume of high theta-e air (925mb), equatorward jet entrance region, and digging 700mb s/w.

I'm interested to see if someone in New England can pull out a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) from Michael on Thursday morning. It looks like the best jet dynamics may be too far north?

Sort of reminds me of that big tornado even last summer in Indiana. Big miss by SPC. Neither instability nor shear were off the charts but they were perfectly co-located for several hours and everything wound up going to town.

No kidding. Mins just getting taken to the woodshed.

Yeah - and either way there's no real trend in tornado activity around here. I could see in a warming world our severe weather season expanding some with more events happening in the spring and fall. Warmer waters off New England would certainly help that.