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CT Rain

Moderator Meteorologist
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Everything posted by CT Rain

  1. CT Rain
    The Euro is really really fast kicking this system out of here. Precip bascially over in CT by noon.
  2. CT Rain
    I said, "Rain for Kevin, Ice for Ryan?" after Ginx mentioned the ECMWF torching E CT.
  3. CT Rain
    It was a joke. You're such a snowflake.
  4. CT Rain
    Rain for Kevin, Ice for Ryan?
  5. CT Rain
    ECMWF is extremely icy in Connecticut.
  6. CT Rain
    Here's what I'm going with at 4
  7. CT Rain
    Going with 3-6" most of CT with 1-3 immediate coast and 6-10 NW of BDL.
  8. CT Rain
    Yup - that will be a factor too.
  9. CT Rain
    I was just thinking that looking through BUFKIT
  10. CT Rain
    I'm wondering if there's enough QPF for that? We'll lose some in the beginning to snow and sleet.
  11. CT Rain
    Not sure there's enough QPF that falls as ZR to be "devastating" on the NAM
  12. CT Rain
    Tossing the low level thermals with the GFS but that would be a pretty nasty ice event down here.
  13. CT Rain
    damn what a QPF bomb
  14. CT Rain
    Icy for the south coast.
  15. CT Rain
    Some solutions have it out of here by like 2 p.m. Sunday too
  16. CT Rain
    Probably a lot of pingers here - but that has a nasty ice storm look for NYC/CT Shoreline.
  17. CT Rain
    Looks pretty close to 12z in terms of outcome. That is really juicy.
  18. CT Rain
    This sounds silly - but the fact the NAM is relatively flat makes me feel better.
  19. CT Rain
    Those EC freezing rain maps are bad. They're based on the instantaneous ptype at a certain time (say 12z) and then the prior 6 hours of QPF is included. So say you're sleet until 6:45 a.m. everything from 1 a.m. to 6:45 a.m. would be incorrectly computed as ZR. So, user beware.
  20. CT Rain
    I didn't say LI for a reason. But it has that look for parts of NYC (bronx/manhattan) and west into NJ
  21. CT Rain
    The op Euro would be a hideous ice storm around NYC/NJ I think
  22. CT Rain
    Also, with the upper level forcing the way it is... the GFS wants to tuck that low ashore near HVN. Guarantee you the better models (with higher resolution) would stick it over Long Island. Doesn't seem like a big deal but shove that coastal front 20 or 25 miles south and it's a big sensible wx difference over SNE. If the best UL is over Albany or Syracuse then it doesn't matter... but in this case it does.
  23. CT Rain
    I've also noticed it tends to be too diffuse with the low center. For example it has a pretty broad swath of SE winds over CT as the low is close to the Sound. In reality the higher res models will show one hell of a front right along I-95 and everyone to the north will be ripping northerlies. They're all sort of tied in I guess - another reason why the GFS struggles with the low level thermals.
  24. CT Rain
    GFS looks like it will be an icy mess here in CT.
  25. CT Rain
    Yeah you need some really funky soundings for that kid of stuff. And for sure if you re-introduce ice in the cloud near the ground then all bets are off.
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