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The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That's not really an accurate statement. There's multi model support for higher than 1-2" amounts, especially for eastern half of the county. 1-3" looks reasonable for RFD. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Always fun to take the time to post on here along with [mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] and any other NWS mets that post here and on other subs, and see others saying they'd have no problem defunding the NWS.

The 06z EPS as you'd expect also notably bumped NW vs 00z run, which itself was a noteworthy jump from the 18z run. Can a trend gif be created on WxBell? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think ultimately it shouldn't have been too surprising that this could come back northwest when you have a strong short-wave ejecting out of the southern Plains and already good eastern ridging out ahead. The TPV lobe exiting east quicker and the short-wave coming in even stronger and negatively tilted looks like it's sealing the deal.

You have wiggle room because of the excellent antecedent air mass. Never want to say never in weather but I think your area will be okay. Ohio is more of an issue with east and southward extent.

Yes, see new NAM rolling out haha Edit: Warning amounts for much of the metro through 09z Tuesday and still snowing.

From my coworker at LOT on shift today: "Yeah, this really got interesting. 0.5" QPF contour comes into our CWA now, already chatting with neighbors we'll have to increase totals perhaps by a factor of 2. Also, NBM gives Chicago a foot of LES. If the NBM is doing that, we're in trouble. Could envision having to issue a warning for a good chunk of the area."

In addition to the changes with weakening confluence and strengthening eastern ridging, doesn't hurt that the 500 mb shortwave is trending stronger and more neutrally to close to negatively tilted. This also feeds back to the background ridging out ahead of the system, with an additional bump in height rises.

Thankfully there's good support now from all the non-GFS op models. It may not be done trending either. Distinct trend to weaken the confluence from the departing PV lobe due to an earlier escape east and strengthening ridging out ahead of the system.

Additionally, QPF, sleet and freezing rain output.

Here's a better zoom for the 06z Euro, Kuchera output and 10:1 for reference.

If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios.

They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how deep the DGZ is, how strong the omega is, and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ.

QPF total got messed up so trying again Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference. Edit: Here you go

Euro bumpin again. If the guidance trends are to be believed, our amounts aside from LES going to need to be adjusted upward and headlines are going to need to be adjusted northwest today.

NSSL WRF is almost 18" for downtown Chicago by 00z Tuesday and still ripping at the end of the run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For those of us on the northwest fringe for the synoptic, the 18z Euro bumped northwest a bit. LE looks decent too. If wanted I can post the WeenieBell Kuchera. Can we get a last minute shuffle like Jan 4-5 2014?

Just posted below you, was gonna say since LES inherently is a bit more uncertain, if they're gonna do it, probably not a big deal to wait until tomorrow morning's issuance. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think the wording in my office's AFD was enough to imply that a watch might be considered without directly saying it. 6"/12 hour criteria for a warning seems quite doable for the LES setup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Close to +SN under this band. Deep winter out there. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

2.3" at my house as of 45 mins ago. Definite fluff again which helps when shoveling. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Through my employment in the NWS, recently was notified we're eligible for the 2nd highest priority vaccine group status as essential workers/first responders. Having had covid already, I wasn't thinking I was going to make a huge priority of getting the vaccine as soon as possible. My thinking changed as studies have come out about the variants (especially South African) evading prior immunity. I'm younger (36) and healthy, so it's never been about particular fear for my own health (and while symptomatic, my case was pretty minor), but not wanting to be part of a chain of transmission that sickens my coworkers and possibly ends up in others getting very sick and/or dying. Also, my mother in law is 60 and had cancer and had her spleen removed years ago. So even though there aren't signs that the variants have spread much yet in the US, that could change over the next month or so, and I feel like there's more urgency to vaccinate, even for those of us who have had the virus. And on that note, unfortunately the vaccine situation in Will County IL (where WFO Chicago is) is frankly extremely frustrating. The health dept has had a few people staffing a phone line in which thousands of people per day are calling. A few of my coworkers managed to make appointments and get their first shots, and a few others have theirs scheduled, but now WillCo Health Dept is saying they overbooked appointments and it's uncertain when they can schedule appointments again. I firmly believe the Trump admin should have done more to help the states organize their vaccine distribution regimes, similar to testing, but states and counties absolutely bear some of the blame for not planning better. It was known for months that the vaccines were coming on line -- they should have had better systems built up even with federal support lacking. I find it hard to believe they couldn't have had call centers set up and contracted out to build websites for scheduling appointments. Now I'm hoping I can get an appointment soon with my primary care health group, fingers crossed.

Regarding lake enhancement tonight into Saturday morning for northwest Indiana, the Euro is farther west with the low level convergence axis than the other guidance, bringing solid enhancement as far west as GYY. It favors the Lake-Porter area and several miles either side for highest totals in the CWA through tomorrow evening. We currently have a WWA out for Porter County and if observational trends this evening support the Euro, we may have to extend the advisory into Lake IN. I think we may leave things as is for the afternoon issuance though.