RCNYILWX

A percentage of the population not taking covid seriously (insisting on frequently gathering indoors, not wearing masks etc) made them more susceptible to contracting the virus in high risk indoor settings and part of the chains of transmission that resulted in large raw numbers of bad outcomes. It's pretty clear that even if the virus weren't politicized, we would've had many deaths, but every little bit of prevention would have helped mitigate our losses. I think the early testing debacle and politicization are two of the biggest factors in the horrific death count. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Considering that many restaurants stayed opened to indoor dining or reopened after many restaurants didn't abide by shut-down of indoor dining during late fall and early winter surge, I doubt that there will be much adherence to any new restrictions. The county sheriffs not enforcing the state mandates makes them pretty toothless and an easier call for many restaurants to keep business as usual. We're probably/hopefully little more than a month away from transmission really dropping here due to vaccine or natural immunity and seasonality. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

When you say bad side effects, do you mean a worse than normal reaction? There's large variance in the common reactions to the shots, especially the 2nd for the mRNA vaccines, but those are just signs of the immune response kicking in. As far as me, I had a pretty typical, not great but not awful symptoms from the second shot (moderate achiness, sore arm, chills but no fever) for about 18 hours. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

WGN TV, with over 1.1 million Facebook followers, showing exactly how NOT to communicate what was genuinely great news from the late stage Pfizer study. The takeaway is that the vaccine is 91% effective in preventing infection for at least 6 months, 100% effective against severe disease, and even appears to work against the South African variant. The headline makes it seem like the vaccine only works for up to six months and encourages a negative takeaway, such as that we're going to need to get vaccinated every 6 months, a common reply on the absolute shitshow comment thread. The media is generally terrible at communicating scientific information to non-scientists. When we're in the middle of working toward herd immunity in part by trying to reduce lingering vaccine skepticism, they need to do better. They need to understand that absence of evidence (effectiveness beyond 6 months in this case) does not mean that the evidence won't exist when more data becomes available. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates are forecast to get advected eastward next week, so could be some solid hailers like 4/7/20 had if there's sufficient deep layer shear. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

On our central region internal call this morning, the director of CRH said 'to not expect a fix to the recurring internet issues etc for the next 6 months to a year due to budget issues.' This issue needs to be elevated in the media and congressional reps and Senators need to be made aware of what's going on and how it could contribute to people dying unnecessarily in a severe weather or flooding episode or a wildfire. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Our IT infrastructure is an embarrassing disgrace. It's to the point where it's getting dangerous considering we're in severe weather season. The fact that Rick Smith the OUN WCM had to tweet on his personal Twitter for people outside the affected offices in the High Risk in the south to stay out of those NWSChat rooms because the server is so unstable highlights how bad it is. Several offices had to go into service backup overnight because their comms went completely down. The Rapid City office has ongoing wildfires in their CWA and they couldn't get forecasts out to their fire weather users. We're lucky there was literally no thunderstorms forecast across the CONUS, let alone any severe weather early this morning. And then you have our wonderful new radar page. Yesterday someone called on our public phone line about the functionality (lack thereof) on the page vs the legacy page and I recommended downloading GR2 for laptop and Radarscope for his phone and tablet. No use in shying away from those recommendations when the NWS page is essentially useless. /endrant

Got 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday morning. Ended up with fairly bad arm soreness, body aches (that were worse than when I had covid), and moderate chills, but no fever. Kept me up for a lot of the night. Feeling a bit better now but still not 100%. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

988 mb, vs. 982 mb for the 00z run. The ensemble mean was 992 mb on the 06z run and 990 mb on the 00z run Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

There's been a lot of bouncing around, even with the ECMWF which has been the most consistent, with the 06z and 18z runs and ensembles weaker than the 00z and 12z. Wonder if the models are struggling with handling the effects of warm sector convection on mass fields. Certainly not uncommon for that to be an issue. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Definitely got my dates screwed up lol. Case of the midnights [emoji38] The weekend before a weekday St Pat's is traditionally St. Pat's weekend though [emoji3] Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ready 2 b buried... If I can get there. Flight scheduled Friday morning from ORD into DEN. Supposed to be staying and skiing in Winter Park and nearby for a week, my first time skiing in 6 years. This insanity from the 06z GFS is probably overdone, but there is precedent for insane totals in slow moving upslope events. March 17-20, 2003 produced 31.8" in Denver and up to 50 to almost 90" in the foothills out to around the continental divide. Winter Park ski resort had almost 80" lol. Would be cool to experience a historic event out there. https://atoc.colorado.edu/~cassano/weather/march2003_snow/index.htm Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z Euro suggested a potential warm front/triple point setup in central Illinois and Indiana on Thursday afternoon. Probably a lot of clouds and likelihood of ongoing convection adds uncertainty, but on the positive side, dew points get to near/around 60 with very impressive wind fields aloft. Another fly in the ointment is potential for surging cold front to undercut surface based convection. This would point toward possible window for any supercells being fairly brief. Anyway, something to watch. If nothing else, there could be bowing segments with the front. The Euro would have been more interesting on Wednesday PM too but as things stand now, the moisture quality just isn't there to overcome the very warm EML base at h7, with any convection able to go being elevated. Unfortunately the Gulf moisture gets blocked until Wednesday by surface ridging across the Gulf states.

As an NWS employee, I haven't come across many colleagues who are in favor of this change. Also, like with the radar page, it's unfortunate that we all give feedback on this stuff and they move forward with the changes anyway. Why pay lip service to getting feedback if the outcome is predetermined? Maybe our negativity is misplaced on it, we'll see. The change I think l dislike the most is changing Small Craft Advisories into Small Craft Warnings. We already have Gale Warnings for more impactful conditions. Also, are they expecting us to issue Small Craft Watches? Confident in saying that we'll be raising our criteria for Small Craft issuances and probably mostly designating them for hazardous waves. The service change announcement says that they need to be called warnings because they're life threatening situations. Funny thing is, I'm not aware of conditions hazardous to small craft causing any fatalities in my time here. If we're going down this route, we need to issue Beach Hazards/Rip Current Warnings, because we know dangerous swimming conditions cause a bunch of drownings each year.

Got my first shot (Pfizer) this morning at the Will County Health Dept and so far, so good. Just very minor arm soreness thus far. Got a little emotional because I could sense how happy the seniors there getting the shot were. For people who haven't seen their loved ones much over the past year, this means a lot to them, in addition to the peace of mind of not having this virus as a threat for them anymore. When I scheduled the appointment for my second shot, the receptionist said the vaccination clinic is the happiest place in the health dept. I think there needs to be more optimism portrayed in public health messaging about what these vaccines mean to help ease some of the reticence that some have. They're really an amazing thing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'll give it an A. Honestly wasn't expecting much of the winter, so having the epic stretch we had gives it a higher grade despite the slow start. Also out here in the west/southwest burbs we had the benefit of more consistent snow cover than points east. The late December through New Year snow stuck around for a while. The end of January storm was the best metro wide true winter storm since GHD II. Another part of my grade is being able to enjoy the winter with my kids, and I did get out for a bunch of sledding with my son, which was cool. Even though February had a mild end, it was still cold enough to wipe out a lot of the warmth from December and January, finishing at +1 overall at ORD. I think most (except Beavis maybe) would sign up for above normal snow and near normal average temp for the winter. Maybe not exactly how we got there, but having the longest sustained period of deep winter since 2015 was fun, albeit taxing for us at the WFO. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

There's something wrong with the NAM's boundary layer scheme that gives modeled snow depth super powers. This creates a feedback cycle in which the snow cover is melted far slower than in reality due to the phantom snow cover influence keeping temps cooler and the cooler temps not allowing the snow to fully melt. Very easy to see this in action on the 00z NAM via Pivotal Weather. Just compare the model snow depth to the modeled 2m temps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Looking like a near seasonal start to March locally then warming up on March 2-3. Euro ensemble showing a brief +PNA spike bringing a decent cool down later next week, followed by the ridge rolling east and warming us back up as already mentioned in a few posts. Pattern should revert to -PNA out to mid month with no block, so a mild and active look. Parts of the northern Plains could make up for their poor winter in that pattern once it takes hold as Aleutian ridging should ensure the CONUS is not completely devoid of cold air. I'd be surprised if March doesn't finish solidly AN for a good chunk of the sub, though figure there will manage to be a snow threat at some point. Maybe this is finally the year we don't get completely unwanted blocking and snow in April. Lastly, it's everyone's favorite time of year, ignore the NAM season. If only SPC had gotten that memo for April 7, 2020 lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I could see some workers in sectors that deal with or work with a lot of people (restaurants, groceries, retail, factories to name a few) wearing masks during cold season. Also it would be a common sense way to protect coworkers from getting a cold if you're well enough to work (no fever) but not 100%. I can also see masks being used regularly for air travel and other mass transit, especially during cold and flu season. There's no way there will be a mandate, but usage will be much more normalized. Also, people that are not well enough to go to work but well enough to work from home will have that option instead of simply taking a sick day. It's possible that the days of essentially letting the flu spread rampantly in the fall and winter will be a thing of the past, as it will be benefit the economy with much less productivity loss and not stress the health system at times, which does happen in spots during the worst flu seasons, such as 2017-18. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

My symptoms were on the mild side (low grade fever for a few days, minor dry cough for a few days followed by a longer duration of cold like symptoms, minor body aches for a few days), so maybe I'd fall into the latter group. Haven't gotten tested for antibodies yet though. My assumption has been that since I did have symptoms and not too much time has passed, that I would have antibodies vs. someone who had a completely asymptomatic infection. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

My friend referenced is a neurologist with admitting privileges at Rush Copley. He got covid from work in early November and then their vaccination process started fairly early being health care workers. After his first shot, everything was amplified vs his covid case symptoms, but for him the worst part of the reaction was that his resting heart rate was at about 130 for a good part of the day after. That plus some of those early studies coming out with writeups in the NY Times were enough for him to decide to not get the second shot. I feel the same way about wondering if the immune response is apparently stronger with one dose than a person who hasn't had covid with two shots. It would be nice to know if not getting it meant that someone who didn't have covid yet is guaranteed to get their first or second dose instead, but not sure it works that way. When I mentioned it to the MIC here, his reaction made it sound like they want to encourage all of us to get both regardless of whether we had the virus already. I'm the only one at the WFO who's had covid, so situation is unique to me.

Have my first shot scheduled next Thursday morning, right before a set of 7 midnight shifts. And then my coworker and midnight shift partner has his second shot the next morning. Our MIC is on standby for possibly needing to cover one or two shifts. From reading the articles about the greatly amplified immune response to the vaccine among covid survivors, and also a friend who had covid about a week after me having had pretty intense symptoms from the first shot, I'm hoping it's not too crazy for me. That said, even though there's some experts saying covid survivors may not need to get the second shot, I currently plan to get the 2nd shot.

So today marks the last day of the impressive 12"+ snow depth streak at both sites. Tomorrow will probably be the last for 10"+ unless the depth is already down under 10" at 12z tomorrow, or there's less melting than expected tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The last two prolonged AO/NAO blocks during meteorlogical winter, 2010 and 2011, were followed by active severe weather seasons, so hopefully that plays out this year as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Today is pretty much ideal steady but not too rapid melt conditions because of the temps and sun plus dew points only in the lower 30s. Then tonight we'll see that slow down and pick back up tomorrow. This is how you'd draw up the initial melt off from a deep snowpack. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk