RCNYILWX

As an NWS employee, I haven't come across many colleagues who are in favor of this change. Also, like with the radar page, it's unfortunate that we all give feedback on this stuff and they move forward with the changes anyway. Why pay lip service to getting feedback if the outcome is predetermined? Maybe our negativity is misplaced on it, we'll see. The change I think l dislike the most is changing Small Craft Advisories into Small Craft Warnings. We already have Gale Warnings for more impactful conditions. Also, are they expecting us to issue Small Craft Watches? Confident in saying that we'll be raising our criteria for Small Craft issuances and probably mostly designating them for hazardous waves. The service change announcement says that they need to be called warnings because they're life threatening situations. Funny thing is, I'm not aware of conditions hazardous to small craft causing any fatalities in my time here. If we're going down this route, we need to issue Beach Hazards/Rip Current Warnings, because we know dangerous swimming conditions cause a bunch of drownings each year.

Got my first shot (Pfizer) this morning at the Will County Health Dept and so far, so good. Just very minor arm soreness thus far. Got a little emotional because I could sense how happy the seniors there getting the shot were. For people who haven't seen their loved ones much over the past year, this means a lot to them, in addition to the peace of mind of not having this virus as a threat for them anymore. When I scheduled the appointment for my second shot, the receptionist said the vaccination clinic is the happiest place in the health dept. I think there needs to be more optimism portrayed in public health messaging about what these vaccines mean to help ease some of the reticence that some have. They're really an amazing thing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'll give it an A. Honestly wasn't expecting much of the winter, so having the epic stretch we had gives it a higher grade despite the slow start. Also out here in the west/southwest burbs we had the benefit of more consistent snow cover than points east. The late December through New Year snow stuck around for a while. The end of January storm was the best metro wide true winter storm since GHD II. Another part of my grade is being able to enjoy the winter with my kids, and I did get out for a bunch of sledding with my son, which was cool. Even though February had a mild end, it was still cold enough to wipe out a lot of the warmth from December and January, finishing at +1 overall at ORD. I think most (except Beavis maybe) would sign up for above normal snow and near normal average temp for the winter. Maybe not exactly how we got there, but having the longest sustained period of deep winter since 2015 was fun, albeit taxing for us at the WFO. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

There's something wrong with the NAM's boundary layer scheme that gives modeled snow depth super powers. This creates a feedback cycle in which the snow cover is melted far slower than in reality due to the phantom snow cover influence keeping temps cooler and the cooler temps not allowing the snow to fully melt. Very easy to see this in action on the 00z NAM via Pivotal Weather. Just compare the model snow depth to the modeled 2m temps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Looking like a near seasonal start to March locally then warming up on March 2-3. Euro ensemble showing a brief +PNA spike bringing a decent cool down later next week, followed by the ridge rolling east and warming us back up as already mentioned in a few posts. Pattern should revert to -PNA out to mid month with no block, so a mild and active look. Parts of the northern Plains could make up for their poor winter in that pattern once it takes hold as Aleutian ridging should ensure the CONUS is not completely devoid of cold air. I'd be surprised if March doesn't finish solidly AN for a good chunk of the sub, though figure there will manage to be a snow threat at some point. Maybe this is finally the year we don't get completely unwanted blocking and snow in April. Lastly, it's everyone's favorite time of year, ignore the NAM season. If only SPC had gotten that memo for April 7, 2020 lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I could see some workers in sectors that deal with or work with a lot of people (restaurants, groceries, retail, factories to name a few) wearing masks during cold season. Also it would be a common sense way to protect coworkers from getting a cold if you're well enough to work (no fever) but not 100%. I can also see masks being used regularly for air travel and other mass transit, especially during cold and flu season. There's no way there will be a mandate, but usage will be much more normalized. Also, people that are not well enough to go to work but well enough to work from home will have that option instead of simply taking a sick day. It's possible that the days of essentially letting the flu spread rampantly in the fall and winter will be a thing of the past, as it will be benefit the economy with much less productivity loss and not stress the health system at times, which does happen in spots during the worst flu seasons, such as 2017-18. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

My symptoms were on the mild side (low grade fever for a few days, minor dry cough for a few days followed by a longer duration of cold like symptoms, minor body aches for a few days), so maybe I'd fall into the latter group. Haven't gotten tested for antibodies yet though. My assumption has been that since I did have symptoms and not too much time has passed, that I would have antibodies vs. someone who had a completely asymptomatic infection. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

My friend referenced is a neurologist with admitting privileges at Rush Copley. He got covid from work in early November and then their vaccination process started fairly early being health care workers. After his first shot, everything was amplified vs his covid case symptoms, but for him the worst part of the reaction was that his resting heart rate was at about 130 for a good part of the day after. That plus some of those early studies coming out with writeups in the NY Times were enough for him to decide to not get the second shot. I feel the same way about wondering if the immune response is apparently stronger with one dose than a person who hasn't had covid with two shots. It would be nice to know if not getting it meant that someone who didn't have covid yet is guaranteed to get their first or second dose instead, but not sure it works that way. When I mentioned it to the MIC here, his reaction made it sound like they want to encourage all of us to get both regardless of whether we had the virus already. I'm the only one at the WFO who's had covid, so situation is unique to me.

Have my first shot scheduled next Thursday morning, right before a set of 7 midnight shifts. And then my coworker and midnight shift partner has his second shot the next morning. Our MIC is on standby for possibly needing to cover one or two shifts. From reading the articles about the greatly amplified immune response to the vaccine among covid survivors, and also a friend who had covid about a week after me having had pretty intense symptoms from the first shot, I'm hoping it's not too crazy for me. That said, even though there's some experts saying covid survivors may not need to get the second shot, I currently plan to get the 2nd shot.

So today marks the last day of the impressive 12"+ snow depth streak at both sites. Tomorrow will probably be the last for 10"+ unless the depth is already down under 10" at 12z tomorrow, or there's less melting than expected tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The last two prolonged AO/NAO blocks during meteorlogical winter, 2010 and 2011, were followed by active severe weather seasons, so hopefully that plays out this year as well. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Today is pretty much ideal steady but not too rapid melt conditions because of the temps and sun plus dew points only in the lower 30s. Then tonight we'll see that slow down and pick back up tomorrow. This is how you'd draw up the initial melt off from a deep snowpack. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The EPO did flip negative in the latter part of January and that ridge spike at the end of the month into early February dislodged the PV lobe that got trapped under the NAO block. The SSW weakened the PV enough to prolong and strengthen the -AO/-NAO. The -NAO also played a big role in making the 2 events in the last week of January what they were vs much warmer/farther northwest outcomes.

Snowing at a good clip under this lead band. If there wasn't a gap behind this, this earlier start than it was looking like yesterday might have been a reason for optimism. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 18z NAMs indicate 2"+ amounts still possible in the CWA, but that's looking to be optimistic at this point. Would really have to rip under that next round out west of the MS River. I guess we'll see.

This was a thread in response to Makary's original WSJ op-ed: https://mobile.twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1362513761383321602 Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Still looks like there's support for heavy rates. The unknown is if we end up with 10:1 ratios or even a bit higher or decently under 10:1. The Kuchera snow maps are actually lower in this case than 10:1 because of marginal lower level temperatures. However, some of the Cobb outputs have greater than 10:1 for a time due to good lift aligned with the DGZ. 1-3" is a good call with potential for a swath of 3-4" where the favorable ingredients come together for a 2-4 hour window.

There's some shades of February 4th here. Not gonna lock in rates that heavy yet, but duration should be better. Definitely ingredients for heavy snow with very steep mid-upper lapse rates, strong forcing for ascent (and very strong omega well enough aligned with DGZ), and solid moisture.

Wintry appeal at its finest with dendrites drifting down and sun glinting off them. Pure fluff with an inch here. Second photo is the top of the recycling bin. Stuff is so airy you can blow it off. The goods. I took a slow-mo but file size is too big to post unfortunately. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

If the trackers are burnt out, then you can only imagine how it is for the meteorologists lol. For me personally this has been the busiest/most taxing stretch of winter weather in my career. Obviously 2013-14 was sustained relentless, but back then I was still newer (and younger ha) and only would work occasional midnight shifts. Now I have two kids and worked mids during the busiest stretch overlapping the end of January storm with lots of extra hours and in general have worked lots of extra hours on other shifts too. Good for the wallet but not good for the sleep. I wouldn't have it any other way though because what more could a snow lover ask for, and it's been fun tracking with everyone. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z Euro op and UKMET were kind of disjointed and thus more paltry, but EPS was more similar to previous Euro runs. Trend is for more of a positively tilted short-wave scooting along. What I like in this setup is that it looks to be yet another one with steep to very steep mid-upper lapse rates. Also, guidance is showing a respectable PWAT plume. So, could be a relatively short duration but decent thump of warm advection snow. At this time, advisory type amounts are probably the ceiling.

Friday night could be off to the races too in favored spots if skies are clear enough. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

La Nina episodes or Nina like patterns with a -PNA paired with some variant of high latitude blocking (-NAO, -AO, -EPO or all 3) have seemed to coincide with memorable stretches of winter weather and/or memorable events. 2011 is a good example of that with a historic snowy phase in the east through January with the -NAO/-AO, then of course GHD I came with a strong -EPO/-PNA couplet after that prolonged NAO/AO block finally eroded. 2018's record stretch of consecutive days of measurable snow in Chicago (that might be broken later today) on Feb 3-11 occurred during a -EPO/-PNA. Then in 2019, despite that year being a weak Nino, had a very Nina like February due to MJO forcing. That month had an amplified RNA pattern with a consistent strong -EPO that allowed Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota to cash in in record fashion and the multiple freezing rain events in the LOT CWA and nearby. Our stretch this year will have occurred with a predominantly -NAO/-AO and -PNA, along with a -EPO in the mean height anomaly, which was very conducive not only for the remarkable snowy stretch for much of the area but also the prolonged cold snap this month once the PV lobe got trapped under the block. Fun stuff. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Definitely, could always use more solid reports down there, and the best part about CoCoRaHS is there's no set reporting requirements like the COOPs. The Kankakee COOP seems to be so infrequent in their reporting now compared to how it was when I got here. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I did call in your report once I saw it when I got home this morning, wish I had seen it earlier and got the LSR sent. Apologies it wasn't used for the map. And we only have one other snow report listed in the text listing for the county, so yours could've been added to that. Have you considered joining CoCoRaHS? Those almost always get incorporated into our post event reporting. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk