RCNYILWX

The dreaded white rain lol. Speaking of ratios, looks like the WeatherBell Kuchera output is back on the juice. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

This would be an interesting case for ratios. BL temps look like they'd be 32-34 during the heaviest rates. 18z GFS Cobb output for actually showed raw snow ratios peaking at 11-16:1 due to the factors you mentioned, but little/no snow accumulation because surface temps never get below 34F. So I think something in the 8:1 range might be reasonable because you could end up with decent dendrites but the marginal surface temps knock down the effective ratio. For the LOT CWA, the most recent operational solutions look less impressive than 4/14/19 from a large scale lift perspective. There could be decent low-mid f-gen but it might be more transient. Mid-upper lapse rates look good (7+C/km). PWATs are decent for a snow system peaking at ~0.6". This looks like a setup that could produce pockets of 2 to 4 inches of snow based off strongest banding placement and these areas could see some road impacts. Downtown Chicago could see issues with accums for the same reason the recent November events didn't perform there, lake water temps are well into the 40s (52F today at Chicago shore), with a north-northeast wind direction forecast. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

April 2019 showed well that very heavy rates overcome the August equivalent sun angle, so that's what we'll need to see continued support for to get noteworthy accumulations. Looking back to those events, April 14th got going early before the peak sun angles to put down a good base of snow and keep the ground colder for continued accums under heavy rates. April 27th didn't fully change over to snow until the afternoon and the rates were not as uniformly heavy, so overall road accums and impacts were less widespread than on April 14th. For Tuesday it looks like the snow will have started by the morning, so that could point toward a more 4/14/19 like outcome *if* the heavy snow materializes. I'm out of winter mode, so the only way this would be more tolerable is if ORD gets the amount needed to get to 50+" on the season. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The problem is that we initialize with NBM data 36 hours out and onward and the NBM has a bunch of models, ensembles, and MOS in it, so it'll always be too warm in this sort of scenario. I'm here on the evening shift and was briefed that the MaxT needs to be much lower but surrounding offices didn't want to make a big change, so there's that unrealistic diurnal precip type trend. Hopefully the overnight shifts populate with raw model data for the Tuesday MaxT if the 00z guidance holds serve.

Do you think they could have disclosed the information about the possible rare blood clot risk and studied it while allowing people to keep their appointments? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Just like America writ large, there's a divide in here between people who think Fauci is a clown and those who think he's beyond reproach. A clown he is not, but his mixed messaging lately plain and simple is not helpful in our country's efforts to convince vaccine holdouts to get the shots. That's how this has to be seen. There's not nearly enough focus on how remarkable the vaccines are. All people who have had the ability to get the vaccine but have chosen not to thus far are hearing from health experts and politicians is that fully vaccinated people have to be just as cautious as unvaccinated people. They need to do a better job incentivizing. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

We haven't publicly released the data yet, but I'm sure it'll get a lot of attention when it comes out in May. The normal annual mean went from 49.9 to 51.4. Here's the full 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 breakdown for annual normals at ORD: 1981-2010/1991-2020 Max: 59.1/59.6 Min: 40.8/43.1 Mean: 49.9/51.4 Days Tmax >=90: 14/13 Days Tmax Days Tmin Days Tmax Precip: 36.89/37.86 Snow: 36.3"/38.4" Days >=0.01" precip: 124/126 Days >=0.10" precip: 69/72 Days >=0.50" precip: 23/24 Days >=1.00" precip: 8/8 If anyone wants me to post the full RFD data too, let me know. The normal mean there went from 49.2 in 1981-2010 to 49.5 in 1991-2020. Again in comparing ORD to RFD, this shows the huge UHI contribution at ORD. Edit: Please don't share this data beyond the forum. Technically wasn't supposed to post it while in the QC phase of the new normals release.

In the new 1991-2020 normals coming out, ORD warmest min in July went up 3 degrees, warmest max stayed the same, and coldest min in January went up 2 degrees, coldest max stayed the same. Meanwhile at RFD coldest min in Jan went up 1 degree, coldest max stayed the same and in July the warmest min went up 1 degree and the warmest max went down 1 degree. Very obvious increased UHI signal there for ORD. Normal seasonal snowfall at ORD went up 2.1" to 38.4", only 0.4" at RFD to 37.1". Normal annual precip went up about 1" at both sites. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

The P1 variant in Brazil is clearly worrisome, however I think it's a bigger deal for the rest of the world than here. There very likely is a worst case scenario of overcrowding and subsequent care degradation in Brazil resulting in the mortality spike among younger adults. It does appear the variant is more contagious and likely is more deadly due to higher viral load, but there's no way to test how those patients would do with high quality care. Because of our rapidly expanding vaccination campaign, we should stay out ahead of widespread major issues like during the late fall and winter spike, current spike in Michigan notwithstanding. This consequently will keep hospital occupancy at manageable levels. I do worry though that things could get worse in other countries, including the EU, given their lagging vaccine campaigns. With supply set to no longer be a serious issue in the US, we will have to pivot some of our efforts to helping the global vax campaign. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

There should be no debate anymore as to the efficacy of the vaccines. I'm not gonna jump in on the shaming of those who insist on waiting longer to get the shots, but at this point it's unfortunate there's still so much skepticism. The vaccines are our ticket back to normalcy. Hundreds of millions have gotten the shots and they've overwhelmingly been safe. What's really the benefit of waiting longer when they're being made available to all adults this month? If you're saying you plan to get the vaccine at some point anyway, why not now? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

A percentage of the population not taking covid seriously (insisting on frequently gathering indoors, not wearing masks etc) made them more susceptible to contracting the virus in high risk indoor settings and part of the chains of transmission that resulted in large raw numbers of bad outcomes. It's pretty clear that even if the virus weren't politicized, we would've had many deaths, but every little bit of prevention would have helped mitigate our losses. I think the early testing debacle and politicization are two of the biggest factors in the horrific death count. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Considering that many restaurants stayed opened to indoor dining or reopened after many restaurants didn't abide by shut-down of indoor dining during late fall and early winter surge, I doubt that there will be much adherence to any new restrictions. The county sheriffs not enforcing the state mandates makes them pretty toothless and an easier call for many restaurants to keep business as usual. We're probably/hopefully little more than a month away from transmission really dropping here due to vaccine or natural immunity and seasonality. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

When you say bad side effects, do you mean a worse than normal reaction? There's large variance in the common reactions to the shots, especially the 2nd for the mRNA vaccines, but those are just signs of the immune response kicking in. As far as me, I had a pretty typical, not great but not awful symptoms from the second shot (moderate achiness, sore arm, chills but no fever) for about 18 hours. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

WGN TV, with over 1.1 million Facebook followers, showing exactly how NOT to communicate what was genuinely great news from the late stage Pfizer study. The takeaway is that the vaccine is 91% effective in preventing infection for at least 6 months, 100% effective against severe disease, and even appears to work against the South African variant. The headline makes it seem like the vaccine only works for up to six months and encourages a negative takeaway, such as that we're going to need to get vaccinated every 6 months, a common reply on the absolute shitshow comment thread. The media is generally terrible at communicating scientific information to non-scientists. When we're in the middle of working toward herd immunity in part by trying to reduce lingering vaccine skepticism, they need to do better. They need to understand that absence of evidence (effectiveness beyond 6 months in this case) does not mean that the evidence won't exist when more data becomes available. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Very steep (8-9 C/km) mid-level lapse rates are forecast to get advected eastward next week, so could be some solid hailers like 4/7/20 had if there's sufficient deep layer shear. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

On our central region internal call this morning, the director of CRH said 'to not expect a fix to the recurring internet issues etc for the next 6 months to a year due to budget issues.' This issue needs to be elevated in the media and congressional reps and Senators need to be made aware of what's going on and how it could contribute to people dying unnecessarily in a severe weather or flooding episode or a wildfire. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Our IT infrastructure is an embarrassing disgrace. It's to the point where it's getting dangerous considering we're in severe weather season. The fact that Rick Smith the OUN WCM had to tweet on his personal Twitter for people outside the affected offices in the High Risk in the south to stay out of those NWSChat rooms because the server is so unstable highlights how bad it is. Several offices had to go into service backup overnight because their comms went completely down. The Rapid City office has ongoing wildfires in their CWA and they couldn't get forecasts out to their fire weather users. We're lucky there was literally no thunderstorms forecast across the CONUS, let alone any severe weather early this morning. And then you have our wonderful new radar page. Yesterday someone called on our public phone line about the functionality (lack thereof) on the page vs the legacy page and I recommended downloading GR2 for laptop and Radarscope for his phone and tablet. No use in shying away from those recommendations when the NWS page is essentially useless. /endrant

Got 2nd Pfizer shot yesterday morning. Ended up with fairly bad arm soreness, body aches (that were worse than when I had covid), and moderate chills, but no fever. Kept me up for a lot of the night. Feeling a bit better now but still not 100%. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

988 mb, vs. 982 mb for the 00z run. The ensemble mean was 992 mb on the 06z run and 990 mb on the 00z run Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

There's been a lot of bouncing around, even with the ECMWF which has been the most consistent, with the 06z and 18z runs and ensembles weaker than the 00z and 12z. Wonder if the models are struggling with handling the effects of warm sector convection on mass fields. Certainly not uncommon for that to be an issue. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Definitely got my dates screwed up lol. Case of the midnights [emoji38] The weekend before a weekday St Pat's is traditionally St. Pat's weekend though [emoji3] Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ready 2 b buried... If I can get there. Flight scheduled Friday morning from ORD into DEN. Supposed to be staying and skiing in Winter Park and nearby for a week, my first time skiing in 6 years. This insanity from the 06z GFS is probably overdone, but there is precedent for insane totals in slow moving upslope events. March 17-20, 2003 produced 31.8" in Denver and up to 50 to almost 90" in the foothills out to around the continental divide. Winter Park ski resort had almost 80" lol. Would be cool to experience a historic event out there. https://atoc.colorado.edu/~cassano/weather/march2003_snow/index.htm Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z Euro suggested a potential warm front/triple point setup in central Illinois and Indiana on Thursday afternoon. Probably a lot of clouds and likelihood of ongoing convection adds uncertainty, but on the positive side, dew points get to near/around 60 with very impressive wind fields aloft. Another fly in the ointment is potential for surging cold front to undercut surface based convection. This would point toward possible window for any supercells being fairly brief. Anyway, something to watch. If nothing else, there could be bowing segments with the front. The Euro would have been more interesting on Wednesday PM too but as things stand now, the moisture quality just isn't there to overcome the very warm EML base at h7, with any convection able to go being elevated. Unfortunately the Gulf moisture gets blocked until Wednesday by surface ridging across the Gulf states.

As an NWS employee, I haven't come across many colleagues who are in favor of this change. Also, like with the radar page, it's unfortunate that we all give feedback on this stuff and they move forward with the changes anyway. Why pay lip service to getting feedback if the outcome is predetermined? Maybe our negativity is misplaced on it, we'll see. The change I think l dislike the most is changing Small Craft Advisories into Small Craft Warnings. We already have Gale Warnings for more impactful conditions. Also, are they expecting us to issue Small Craft Watches? Confident in saying that we'll be raising our criteria for Small Craft issuances and probably mostly designating them for hazardous waves. The service change announcement says that they need to be called warnings because they're life threatening situations. Funny thing is, I'm not aware of conditions hazardous to small craft causing any fatalities in my time here. If we're going down this route, we need to issue Beach Hazards/Rip Current Warnings, because we know dangerous swimming conditions cause a bunch of drownings each year.

Got my first shot (Pfizer) this morning at the Will County Health Dept and so far, so good. Just very minor arm soreness thus far. Got a little emotional because I could sense how happy the seniors there getting the shot were. For people who haven't seen their loved ones much over the past year, this means a lot to them, in addition to the peace of mind of not having this virus as a threat for them anymore. When I scheduled the appointment for my second shot, the receptionist said the vaccination clinic is the happiest place in the health dept. I think there needs to be more optimism portrayed in public health messaging about what these vaccines mean to help ease some of the reticence that some have. They're really an amazing thing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk