RCNYILWX

I just noticed that today too and it almost screwed me up doing a phone interview with the Sun Times. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

What I get for getting hyped lol. Still think it can come back to a fronto type setup shown on previous runs today. Never bought into the GFS phaser idea, which quickly went away at 12z. EPS is usually a good gauge on things, so we'll see if things can revert back to 12z look or trend down again from 18z. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Thursday could help and if north side band sets up far enough north tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening. I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C.

12z GFS beginning the cave process finally over the weekend. Still looks like it'll snow but ceiling is probably advisory type amounts. The above being said in terms of backing off phased dog solution, 12z runs today remain snowy this weekend with similar clipper fronto to what we've been getting and support for work week potential.

We'll have chances beyond this weekend, so we could get to 8-12+ by nickels and dimes over a week and a half or by a larger event. I still say chances are elevated for another widespread warning event over the next few weeks. For this weekend, the 06z GEFS provided decent support for the operational while the EPS is having none of it with one or two out of 51 members showing anything in the realm of the GFS. Banking on a phase happening and timing it perfectly is always a shaky proposition, so I agree on GFS outcome being lower probability. The Euro still shows light-mod fluff rounds over the weekend and then a decent signal for an event next Tuesday-Wednesday on the operational and a majority of EPS members. To get the outcome we want for the weekend, need to start to see movement toward it on the other globals and their ensembles (starting with 06z EPS) and of course for the GFS/GEFS to hold the signal.

Recall March 2019 flooding from Nebraska to NW IL after that bombing low. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The NAMs look like a toss for Wednesday if the foreign guidance comes in farther north. 18z Euro had supported another 1-3" I-88 and south or thereabouts. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

About 2.5" here measuring in the front of my house where I had shoveled out Saturday's snow. I'm assuming about 2" is from this evening with the band just north of my area this afternoon. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Puffballs here (southeast Naperville near DuPage/Will border) underneath the band, +SN but a nice gentle deep winter evening. Stacking nicely. Edit: photo of my backyard for reference, the snow (largest dendrites around dime size) is stacking vertically on that chairback, showing how it's ultra light high SLR fluff and also no wind to disturb it. Basically perfect conditions in this band to max out efficiency. 00Z DVN sounding has 13kft deep DGZ with lapse rates >7C/km above the 700 mb centered f-gen zone.

Call in your latest report to the office if you haven't yet, could always use additional reports from the city Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

^Didn't age well [emoji38] Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Just called in your report to the office. Nice dendies here but only a dusting since we spent much of the night north of the band. The ultra high ratios you got might bode well for later. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ironic, or serious?

Him winning in TB doesn't have the same resonance. If he was still in New England and won, I'd be seething. Also, good to see Bellichick getting smacked down for being arrogant. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Trust in the pattern moving forward. May not cash in immediately but think we'll get at least a solid event or two. It hasn't been what some earlier model runs showed yet, though the amount of cold air and chance for decent baroclinicity should win out eventually. And at the least, the chances of lighter snow we're getting for now are better than the nothingness we had for 2 weeks to start January remember. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Revisiting this, some of the early HRRR/RAP runs and to a bit lesser extent the NAMs and HRWs clearly were far too aggressive. Had thought 2-4" was attainable across a good chunk of the CWA in expectation that the ratios could perform even outside banding. This was before it started to become more clear that this would be one of those fairly common setups where only in the banding would ratios perform to their capability and the CAMs were overdoing QPF. It appears that the CAMs were reacting to mesoscale banding and distributing this QPF over much too widespread an area and were in general too wet. These are tough forecasts because the globals don't necessarily do as good a job picking up on the f-gen banding, while the CAMs do but might be too aggressive in doing so. Plus the ratio question really takes being precise in ascertaining where banding will set up to forecast the localized 15-20:1 ratios while the rest of the area comes in close to 10:1.

The band from BRL to VYS is where it's at for getting the high ratio dendrites. It looks like that should slide across the southwest burbs and then probably south of downtown Chicago. Might be close to getting clipped by the band at my location. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ratios in these situations are always tied to how well the omega is aligned with the DGZ. If there's a mismatch, you get pixies, no matter how deep the DGZ is. Today is conditionally favorable for 20:1+ ratios because of the deep DGZ but it looks like it will be temporary and tied to the somewhat transient f-gen banding. Wherever ratios end more around 10:1 today is a good case study for the flaw of the Kuchera method (and also underscores how ridiculous the WeenieBell maps are). Because it's based off the MaxT from the surface to 500 mb, and the whole column is very cold, there's no way for the Kuchera ratios to not be high today and in other events with cold sfc temps, which means caution is advised for all events moving forward with snow maps. The Cobb ratios found on PSU BUFKIT site are better for a day like today because the Cobb ratios are based off how strong the lift is and how well aligned it is with the DGZ. Kuchera is better for more marginal thermals or when it looks like climo ratios are better than 10:1 for a given event.

Both the HRRR and NAM place the banding signature a bit north of where the low-mid level f-gen has been maximized on recent model runs, which is where you'd expect it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'm surprised they didn't go into Indiana with it, which may have had to do with IWX and IND not issuing for any of their counties. Haven't seen that quick of dampening eastward within the CWA on the guidance. There's a little bit of good and a little bit of less good from what we know so far. Clearly they didn't rely solely upon global guidance and ensembles for QPF and snow output. On the other hand, there's support for going farther north and east with the headline. My guess, if the AVN AFD is a clue, is that we wanted to go farther north but DVN didn't even want to issue anything. The map looks weird enough with LaSalle in and not Bureau and Putnam and points west. Imo having included LaSalle could also have included some counties farther north and east in the metro without yet putting Lee County in. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The truthers would say this is a combination of a massive uptick in suicide and a bunch of older people with co-morbidities all decided to die in one year Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

12z NAM valid 22z 800-600 mb 2D f-gen from FSU site http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

No because that's a common NAM problem in Arctic air masses. The GFS has a much lower QPF output but it's completely saturated through the DGZ. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Pivotal Kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk