RCNYILWX

Well I'll gladly step in and be the one to issue the Winter Storm Watch for LOT. My attention is now shifting to how I'm safely going to get to the office for my Saturday night midnight shift lol. As modeled, the support for widespread intense snowfall rates Saturday evening into the overnight looks better than we have seen locally in quite some time. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The angle of approach remains key in this setup as it currently looks this far out with respect to how much of a snowpack destroyer/flood setup this becomes in the LOT CWA and surrounding locations with deep high liquid content snow cover. Also the pace of the occlusion process and occluded cold front sweeping through, which will affect the time spent in the warm sector. 12z operational ECMWF is much more ominous in that regard, while the recent runs of the GFS have been much less so. Still finding it hard how we could avoid any rain in that setup, which would need substantial changes in the longwave pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Pattern looks prime in the long range (next weekend and beyond) for the central and western subforum. Definitely February 2019 vibes but with a -AO/-NAO.

I'm not too worried about it as long as the 850 mb low stays south of us. The lower level warm advection and fgen is going to do most of the work Saturday evening into early Sunday AM. During Sunday the system goes vertically stacked and fades east to east southeast so that would continue to keep 850 mb low to the south. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

True. I think it's the much narrower swath of good totals that's suspect but Chicago looking good still should say something. 10:1 is slightly higher than Pivotal Weather's Kuchera output on that run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It shouldn't be hard to. It's an outlier for a reason, that being garbage thermals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

More from the 00z EPS: Individual member snowfall and 3"+ and 6"+ probs [/url]

We'll see here shortly with the 00z EPS, if we keep or increase the ensemble clustering, that suggests a stable, higher than average confidence forecast, on top of the overall remarkable consistency of the 00z op models and other ensemble systems. If we keep this up for the model cycles through tomorrow night, I might be the one issuing the watch for LOT, as I'm starting midnight shifts with MTF. Edit: And here it is. The clustering of almost all members within the ensemble mean surface low at 84 hours says it all. While there's still time for changes, hard not to get excited.

It's a relatively common occurrence to have a primary in the Midwest and eastern Lakes and transfer to a secondary that blows up near the East Coast. This one is a more interesting evolution I'd say than the more common occurrence. Some of the recent decades big events in the subforum did go on to produce big dog amounts in the east, like January 05, Feb 07, GHD II. What's interesting to me about this one is that the block is over Hudson Bay, which is very far southwest, so it forces that interesting evolution under the block. The cutoff happens south of us on Sunday-Sunday night when it slows down and slides east. Next week's system does have the potential to reshuffle the deck so to speak. It looks like what could happen is the very west based block could give way and then the upper low from the Midwest system could link up with a PV lobe dislodged by a spike of the EPO region ridging. This evolution would then force the block to reorient near Greenland, which is a more classic position for the NAO block and lead to the -EPO, -PNA, -AO, more easterly -NAO, which is a really good look for more fun times ahead.

Makes some sense with warmer thermal profile, which tends to shrink the DGZ. Would have to check the soundings though. If the lift is maxed out and well aligned with the DGZ, can get higher ratios than suggested by MaxT from sfc to 500 mb, which is what Kuchera is basically. Also if you have a deep isothermal layer you can get riming and aggregates.

Kuchera output for the 00z Euro Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That's basically the EPS mean track, which also is a good blend of the remainder of the guidance. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That I agree with, especially on the operational GFS. I think there's a theoretical northerly limit for the track because of the block but maybe it could nudge a bit more. It depends on location when it tracks northeast and what latitude it ends up because eventually the block causes an easterly phase. It was already mentioned by@Hoosier earlier how this setup with no Hudson Bay block is a wrapped up cutter, which is pretty clearly the case. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Our friend Kuchie. I'll say it again, the overall agreement in the general details of this system is impressive. Might lend to earlier headline issuance if the run to run consistency continues. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately it's one of the components of the NBM we use as a common point for the extended. It'll probably be caught and addressed given the consistency and better handle of thermal profile. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

V16 is very nice again for QCA, southern WI, northern IL, northern IN, southern lower MI and northwest OH. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yep GFS is on its own with the garbage thermals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z NAM as good or better than 18z run was for the areas it favored. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Keep it little flatter entry to avoid nuking the snowpack and related flooding issues. Both versions of the GFS try for that progression. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Hopefully a harbinger of things to come in the spring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

They happen, they just never seem to jackpot us, we usually end up missing north or south. Winter 2017-18 had stretches like that, Detroit area back to Wisconsin benefitted from the December round. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

18z EPS essentially unchanged from the 12z run, noise level stuff. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Wish pivotal had the 06z/18z runs to compare their Kuchera output run to run. Anyway, here's the 10:1 snow map from WxBell, just to demonstrate it's still a really nice look. 18z run was a hair north of the 12z run (tracked to north of STL while 12z roughly got to latitude of STL then faded east) and got that more west to east orientation of the precip/snow swath. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Incorrect. Like @Chicago Storm wrote, the upgrade is scheduled to come next month. Haven't seen any emails to the contrary. May as well get used to what's likely to be the operational GFS next month. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Forecasting any snow is challenging, forecasting lake effect is when more challenging. Red flags I saw were the somewhat middling EL heights and deltas not off the charts. Have seen worse parameters perform when low level lift and convergence are forecast to compensate. I'm not sure why the band once it got going it struggled to push inland at all. Interested in if anyone has any theories/explanations as to why. Overall disappointed it didn't work out, but that's how it goes with LES, you win some and you lose more lol. Certainly a poor performance by the CAMs and a win for the Euro which was never excited about today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk