RCNYILWX

Let's keep the complaining about who can top how bad your season has been so far and who's had it worst in the Banter thread and the good meteorlogical analysis and model discussion in here.

The New England subforum weenies meltdowning their way to a decent little event lol. A tradition like no other. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Much less clownish Kuchera map. Nice spread the wealth as modeled on this run, with some lake enhancement into southeast WI and northeast IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out. It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection indicies, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

For those keeping score, on the 00z ensembles, the EPS and GEPS (Canadian) shifted north from their respective previous runs, while the GEFS shifted south. The GEFS has been the farthest north guidance, so it shifting south isn't surprising. Our AFD makes note of this, but the general ensemble mean and member agreement is noteworthy at this lead time. I think the 25th-26th system had more spread than this at a shorter lead time. It goes without saying that having such solid consensus this far out doesn't guarantee anything. I'm wondering if the stability of the Hudson Bay block is helping with more predictability in this case. Also seems a bit different than what just occurred in that the block forms an omega like depiction with a northern stream lobe off to its west and the deep trough to the east. In this way the block serves as a road block from a hard cut but does not appear on the ens mean h5 depiction to be imparting a compressive shearing mechanism to the parent wave. It's an interesting but solid setup for areas that have missed out to hopefully score and those of us in the middle to also get in on the fun. The individual EPS members strongly point toward a pretty large swath of accumulating snow with the typical banding jackpot zones depending on exact track. This suggests that areas that miss out on max amounts could still get several inches. Lots of time to sort all the details out, so these are items I'm noticing thus far on the snow side of things. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

What's your distance and direction from DKB? We could use your report as a LSR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Made an estimated snow map for our event page. LOT CWA posters...Is this reasonably accurate? I can tweak it if there's anything glaring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It probably is wrong. Parallel GFS a little better but probably still too aggressive with its warming aloft in that pattern. GEM and ECMWF solutions have looked more realistic. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Toss the GFS thermals for sure Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This little band overhead here is producing solid SN so I think ratios should be good with the lake enhancement today into this evening once that fully gets going into NE IL. Pulling for us to need to issue an advisory for the LES tomorrow. Chicago guys deserve this haha. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Call it 4" here and just started snowing nicely again. Everything plastered, looks great and sledding should be prime for the kids over the next few days. Obviously wish we could've had more, but I'll take it. One of the red flags noted by some of the posters when this event started to change character was the main mid-level vort centers being pretty far north. That helps explain the most persistent mid-level f-gen banding setting up farther north. Fighting dry air at times didn't help either, without that we do a little better. Hopefully the lake enhancement and lake effect performs well the rest of day and tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

No to a slop fest here, maybe it ends as slop if we dry slot, though those details still too early, as we saw with how current event totally changed evolution from a few days before it. The non-GFS guidance is cold enough aloft for most of it. It's another beggars can't be choosers event lol. Without the Hudson Bay block, not a chance we'd get snow with that antecedent setup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Ripping here in southeast Naperville. Huge flakes and legit +SN under this band. Calling it 2.9" now but we're stacking quickly. Just got home from the office, it was freezing drizzle/mist and snow grains when I left there, and the band suddenly blew up near Bolingbrook.

Filling in better now and maybe lake enhancement starting to kick in. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For everyone with RadarScope in LOT CWA, use tORD or tMDW Long Range Z while KLOT is down. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think the convective bands lifting up from central IL should help with the snow rates from near here (LOT) and north once they get in. Starting with evening updates here. Edit: looking at SPC mesoanalysis, there's a relative minima in max 2-6km AGL lapse rates (6.5C/km) over NE IL with steeper lapse rates southwest of that (7.5 C/km) so we could be seeing the response to those lapse rates getting advected northeastward.

Did you check out your P&C? Our dayshift went big for Cook. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Maybe just give him his own thread to post maps all day? No one gives feedback on his posts anyway so he probably won't know the difference. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think we need a board intervention. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 12z GFS really likes the IL side LES and also gives@Hoosier some love. GFS v16 not quite as generous but still quite solid 3 day totals. Ratios should be pretty good in the LES phase. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I was at the office late last night and there wasn't a ton of time to refine the pure lake effect part of the forecast, though the forecaster handling it liked the setup. I see it as being distinctly possible with travel impacts into Wednesday. We'll see what the dayshift thinks today and I'll get to take a look at it this evening too. If there's long enough residence time, convergence and parameters look sufficient to get 2-3"+ totals, which is probably the bar we'd use vs SPS. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'd be up for changing the name of the Medium Long Range thread to Spartman's Model Hub. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

1-3/2-4 additional probably reasonable and anything more than that on the Illinois side of the lake is gravy. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk