RCNYILWX

It's a relatively common occurrence to have a primary in the Midwest and eastern Lakes and transfer to a secondary that blows up near the East Coast. This one is a more interesting evolution I'd say than the more common occurrence. Some of the recent decades big events in the subforum did go on to produce big dog amounts in the east, like January 05, Feb 07, GHD II. What's interesting to me about this one is that the block is over Hudson Bay, which is very far southwest, so it forces that interesting evolution under the block. The cutoff happens south of us on Sunday-Sunday night when it slows down and slides east. Next week's system does have the potential to reshuffle the deck so to speak. It looks like what could happen is the very west based block could give way and then the upper low from the Midwest system could link up with a PV lobe dislodged by a spike of the EPO region ridging. This evolution would then force the block to reorient near Greenland, which is a more classic position for the NAO block and lead to the -EPO, -PNA, -AO, more easterly -NAO, which is a really good look for more fun times ahead.

Makes some sense with warmer thermal profile, which tends to shrink the DGZ. Would have to check the soundings though. If the lift is maxed out and well aligned with the DGZ, can get higher ratios than suggested by MaxT from sfc to 500 mb, which is what Kuchera is basically. Also if you have a deep isothermal layer you can get riming and aggregates.

Kuchera output for the 00z Euro Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That's basically the EPS mean track, which also is a good blend of the remainder of the guidance. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

That I agree with, especially on the operational GFS. I think there's a theoretical northerly limit for the track because of the block but maybe it could nudge a bit more. It depends on location when it tracks northeast and what latitude it ends up because eventually the block causes an easterly phase. It was already mentioned by@Hoosier earlier how this setup with no Hudson Bay block is a wrapped up cutter, which is pretty clearly the case. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Our friend Kuchie. I'll say it again, the overall agreement in the general details of this system is impressive. Might lend to earlier headline issuance if the run to run consistency continues. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Unfortunately it's one of the components of the NBM we use as a common point for the extended. It'll probably be caught and addressed given the consistency and better handle of thermal profile. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

V16 is very nice again for QCA, southern WI, northern IL, northern IN, southern lower MI and northwest OH. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yep GFS is on its own with the garbage thermals. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z NAM as good or better than 18z run was for the areas it favored. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Keep it little flatter entry to avoid nuking the snowpack and related flooding issues. Both versions of the GFS try for that progression. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Hopefully a harbinger of things to come in the spring. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

They happen, they just never seem to jackpot us, we usually end up missing north or south. Winter 2017-18 had stretches like that, Detroit area back to Wisconsin benefitted from the December round. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

18z EPS essentially unchanged from the 12z run, noise level stuff. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Wish pivotal had the 06z/18z runs to compare their Kuchera output run to run. Anyway, here's the 10:1 snow map from WxBell, just to demonstrate it's still a really nice look. 18z run was a hair north of the 12z run (tracked to north of STL while 12z roughly got to latitude of STL then faded east) and got that more west to east orientation of the precip/snow swath. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Incorrect. Like @Chicago Storm wrote, the upgrade is scheduled to come next month. Haven't seen any emails to the contrary. May as well get used to what's likely to be the operational GFS next month. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Forecasting any snow is challenging, forecasting lake effect is when more challenging. Red flags I saw were the somewhat middling EL heights and deltas not off the charts. Have seen worse parameters perform when low level lift and convergence are forecast to compensate. I'm not sure why the band once it got going it struggled to push inland at all. Interested in if anyone has any theories/explanations as to why. Overall disappointed it didn't work out, but that's how it goes with LES, you win some and you lose more lol. Certainly a poor performance by the CAMs and a win for the Euro which was never excited about today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Let's keep the complaining about who can top how bad your season has been so far and who's had it worst in the Banter thread and the good meteorlogical analysis and model discussion in here.

The New England subforum weenies meltdowning their way to a decent little event lol. A tradition like no other. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Much less clownish Kuchera map. Nice spread the wealth as modeled on this run, with some lake enhancement into southeast WI and northeast IL. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

For the big trough later next week, concerned that it'll be tough to avoid any rain with that setup. The until that point persistent west based NAO block is progged to rotate eastward, which would enable a larger height spike ahead of the deep western trough. There being plenty of time to get to a better outcome is the fortunate part of this and the GFS shows one possible way out. It's been a while since I peeked at the long range with the more active pattern of late. No complaints in what they're showing, with solid agreement in a -EPO with much better cold, another plunge of the PNA, and continued -AO/-NAO. The NAO block is forecast to trend from west based to over or just east of Greenland. Meanwhile the MJO is forecast to go into phase 7 with enough amplitude to eventually go into phase 8. The phase 7 composite looks like the canonical Nina base state with southeast ridging.So with the other favorable teleconnection indicies, that pattern could be wintry and active if it works out.

For those keeping score, on the 00z ensembles, the EPS and GEPS (Canadian) shifted north from their respective previous runs, while the GEFS shifted south. The GEFS has been the farthest north guidance, so it shifting south isn't surprising. Our AFD makes note of this, but the general ensemble mean and member agreement is noteworthy at this lead time. I think the 25th-26th system had more spread than this at a shorter lead time. It goes without saying that having such solid consensus this far out doesn't guarantee anything. I'm wondering if the stability of the Hudson Bay block is helping with more predictability in this case. Also seems a bit different than what just occurred in that the block forms an omega like depiction with a northern stream lobe off to its west and the deep trough to the east. In this way the block serves as a road block from a hard cut but does not appear on the ens mean h5 depiction to be imparting a compressive shearing mechanism to the parent wave. It's an interesting but solid setup for areas that have missed out to hopefully score and those of us in the middle to also get in on the fun. The individual EPS members strongly point toward a pretty large swath of accumulating snow with the typical banding jackpot zones depending on exact track. This suggests that areas that miss out on max amounts could still get several inches. Lots of time to sort all the details out, so these are items I'm noticing thus far on the snow side of things. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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Is the lake effect for tomorrow being discussed on here? Debating between an SPS and a WWA. In addition to the HRRR (which as we know is usually overdone with LES), the 00z HRWs smoke Cook County. Kind of concerning to just have a SPS but also these setups are always low confidence. Was leaning SPS but I'd be lying if I said I feel good about it either way lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

What's your distance and direction from DKB? We could use your report as a LSR. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk