RCNYILWX

One thing I'm seeing as a possible missed opportunity with the vaccine rollout is that households aren't being vaccinated. We're hearing that doses have been sitting unused and the vials once open have a limited shelf life. If a health care worker also has a spouse and x # of kids, why not vaccinate them all? Another example is a household where one person is 75+ and their spouse is 70-74. Why would only vaccinate the 75+ year old and not both? If the goal is getting population immunity, shouldn't we be trying to get as many shots in arms as possible and banking on the supply being there for the 2nd dose? I think that's the philosophy being applied in the moves to alleviate the excess supply this week, I'm just wondering if we could be doing even more. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong on the speculation.

It's been bad, too often in recent years we've had a long dull stretch for most of December into January, and this season didn't have the benefit of cold and snow in November. It's easy to forget because the snow season ended up being so long, but 18-19 had a stretch every bit as long and boring as this winter, probably worse in a way. December 2018 had 1.4" of snow and was +5.5 at ORD and January 12-13 2019 was the first bonafide measurable snow since November 25-26 2018. We'll really need to make a run to bring up the ranking of this season and need the upcoming favorable looking stretch to deliver on its potential. The good news is that cold air supply will be there and there should be a steady stream of Pac shortwaves coming ashore, so if we have bad luck with one system, we should have more chances. I remember being optimistic about the 2nd half of January 2019 and the background pattern for Feb looked very good, the predominant storm track was just too far northwest. That's where the progged strong -NAO could really help us and points east this time.

Quite a read catching up on the posts today. I felt like if anything we had a slight favorable trend of getting anything interesting tomorrow. There's support there for rain changing to a fairly short thump of snow from large scale (mid-level height falls and positive vorticity advection from a vort lobe wrapping around the ULL) and mesoscale from steep lapse rates and 850-700 mb fgen. Limiting factor is residence time of heavier rates and antecedent mild temps. Don't have too much to add on Friday's snow shower potential other than that it's a pretty good synoptic setup for them and[mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] posted a forecast sounding to highlight this. Finally, I like Sunday for a longer period of light to at times moderate snow with forcing rather modest but good DGZ depth and steep mid-upper lapse rates. None of this should add up to anything more than a few inches in the Chicago metro, but it's certainly a nice change from the long boring stretch. It's always good to keep expectations in check and appreciate the meteorology of some of these setups. I really do think our time is coming for something a lot more fun during the late month period and into February.

The key is getting extensive snow cover down across the region, that can help modulate a pattern with some milder risk. Re. your question, it's possible to be related to a smaller diurnal range. The 850 mb anomalies are probably more relevant, especially if we can get solid snow cover down. And those anomalies even in the milder stretch shown in first half of Feb are not that far above normal, so you can easily still snow in that, as[mention=55]Stebo[/mention] mentioned above. I tend to look at the 500 mb pattern before then 850 mb temperature anomalies and don't usually look at the 2m because if I'm not mistaken those are a lower skilled parameter in weekly and seasonal forecasts.

Except it likely isn't going to stay like it's been. The +EPO/+WPO looks like it's going to go opposite phase for a time and then eventually could go to a neutral or weakly +EPO and still solidly -WPO. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Gotta be careful just looking at the temperature anomalies on those weeklies. The mean 500 mb pattern and anomalies suggests that the western ridge will continue to retrograde to more of a Aleutian ridge common in La Nina but we should keep NAO blocking if the effects of the SSW make it to North America. A good poleward Aleutian ridge (-WPO) continues to provide cold air delivery into the northern CONUS, as opposed to a strong lobe of the polar vortex over the entire AK domain (like 2012) which torched the CONUS all winter. While a -WPO/-PNA pattern does introduce a warmer risk by themselves as southeast ridge is allowed to flex more, having the AO/NAO stay negative is key and could keep a wintrier pattern going instead of warmer cutters that only benefit MSP and points north/northwest. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Agree, wouldn't expect a full handle until Wednesday on the specifics. At least we've been looking at the 15th as approximate date of arrival of a better pattern and getting a snow threat in the region around that time is a decent sign. As we've been discussing on the med-long range thread, see no reason to diverge from the thinking that pattern will become more favorable for more frequent snow threats on the last 10 days of the month and into February Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Had mentioned the improvements on the 12z EPS vs last night's EPS. This tweet has a good visualization of those favorable changes, with strong height increases near AK and near Greenland. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Dusting is probably a good expectation. Sometimes these upper lows can produce a period of decent snow if you get a well timed 700 mb wave, but that'll be a few days to sort out. The 12z Euro was more generous with the ULL snow, maybe that's what was cited for 3-5" prediction. That would be absolute high end, a couple inches would be pretty good fortune.

I shouldn't engage but I'll say this, this subforum shows a lot of restraint when it comes to medium range threats compared to other subforums and other forums in general. This is not just because of threats evaporating in the short range the past 2 winters and this winter sucking so far, it's something I've noticed over the years. All we're trying to do here is nail when the pattern will finally become more favorable for regular snow threats. It's not humping modeling, it's diagnosing the pattern and potential it has should the ensembles be on the right track. Most people who come in here to read want to learn something and also when we finally could get a good snow producer, not hear you gripe at others constantly and acting like you know it all. I've certainly been overly optimistic in the past, I love snow myself, and this winter, this long boring stretch sucks. But I'm trying to be realistic while also talking about how this could be a legit decent pattern we're heading into, no guarantees though like always when it comes to forecasting at longer ranges. Others are trying to do the same, and I kindly suggest you read more and post/bitch less.

Why you're constantly miserable on this thread and others always is bizarre.

Here you go, 5-day average 500 mb height anomalies day 5-10, day 7.5-12.5, and day 10-15. Next plot is hour 270 500 mb heights and wind barbs. Then the 5-day average 850 mb anomalies from the same time steps as the 5-day avg 500 mb anomalies. Needless to say, active look with plenty of cold air available and the NAO assist. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

The upcoming pattern was described as looking similar to the second half of winter 18-19, except with a -NAO, on the New England forum. It could be worth the wait but certainly would have to be historic to make up for this very long boring stretch. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I never like to bust a forecast, but figure if the bust is for less clouds than forecast, that would be appreciated by most given how cloudy it's been lately. You're probably in the minority lol and you get your clouds back today and probably through tomorrow too. I know Wednesday-Wednesday night looks mild ahead of the front, but I wouldn't lock in temps being able to rise that much yet. That kind of warmth aloft coming in will mean a sharp inversion locks in if there's existing cloud cover (which looks quite possible) and surface advection will be from over areas still with deeper snow cover. Wouldn't be surprised if forecast high temps bust low on Wednesday.

There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend. Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February.

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA. EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

Still looks on track for pattern change late next week and the more favorable pattern continuing beyond that. The EPS seemed to have a few run hiccup and the 12z reverted back to closer to what it had been showing. Pattern change doesn't equal snow for everyone right away but hopefully it gets active enough to have more opportunities for more areas. It no doubt does suck to have this very long boring stretch after an already bad start to the season. Recall that 2018-19 got off to a big start for parts of the sub and then essentially stopped December-mid January then became very active after that point through April, benefitting west and northwestern subforum the most. With bonafide NAO and AO blocking in place this time, and possibly locked in for a while longer from the stratospheric warming event effects, it could be a good period of winter weather. Just have to wait and see.

Still looks like all systems go based on continued good run to run consistency in the ensembles. Starting to finally see within day 10 on the operational models signs of what we've discussing on here. See no reason to diverge from thinking that during mid to late next week, we should start to see a stream of clipper/hybrid type waves in the initially northwest flow pattern and the lake effect belts should really take off. The week after next should trend to quasi-zonal with plenty of cold air involved due to the ridge spike to north of AK setting up a steady cross polar flow connection and the -NAO helping to keep ridge spikes ahead of vigorous short waves in check. As[mention=6644]Snowstorms[/mention] wrote, signs do point toward that retrograding ridge setting up a more classic Niña type look into February. Parts of the sub had an epic February in 2019 in a decidedly Nina like pattern (despite that being a weak Nino) without North Atlantic and Arctic blocking. I feel more optimistic too that the pattern can remain favorable for longer for more areas with a decent likelihood of the blocking lingering.

I don't think it's wrong to speculate about the possibility that it was an accidental release of a hybrid virus from lab experiments. The author does cite field experts about their own speculation on potential it was an accidental lab release. The thing is, the virus probably still is of natural origin, but the intermediary animal hasn't and probably won't ever be determined because of the CCP's pervasive efforts to cover up the origin of SARS-CoV2. Given the cover-up by the CCP and seeming coincidence that the spread of the virus likely started in the very city where a high security lab is researching bat viruses, I don't think it's baseless to wonder. None of us that I know of on here are experts on virology but yet I don't think it's unfair to raise the issue the author did despite the fact he doesn't have expertise in this area. It goes both ways, China covering up origin of the virus, neither proves nor negates it was an accidental lab release. The original SARS was zoonotic and yet the CCP engaged in a cover-up with that too. It's what they do. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The only thing I'll agree with is this: Dr Scott Gottlieb (Trump's former FDA chief), who's been a very good source of covid info, thinks we should be opening up higher risk age groups younger than 75+ instead of trying to focus on designated priority groups. This makes a good deal of sense: we're trying to race to get to population level herd immunity, so the priority should be as many shots in arms as possible. Let people who want to get vaccinated get the vaccine. The highest demand is in 60+ age group, so let them get it and if younger essential workers want to wait, let them and let others at a higher risk get the vaccine. Ultimately though, it is important that all age groups get it. We need to promote the importance of doing so. It's not badgering younger people -- the only way we can get to herd immunity is if at least 70% of the population is immune. On the last point, there's not a chance the virus started in Europe. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Spot on, it's unfortunate to have the zzzzs that long but hopefully it ends up being worth the wait. Very good EPS and GEFS agreement in the western ridging retrograding off the west coast beyond January 1/15. The other noteworthy development in the past few full ens runs is amplified poleward ridging with the ridge axis up across the center of AK. Given the continued Arctic and North Atlantic blocking, that strengthening -EPO signal ups the ante for very cold air to get involved in addition to the RNA (-PNA) due to the retrograding western ridge supporting a more active look. Prior to the -PNA (if the ens are on the right track) we could start to see more clippers materialize and the lake effect belts should take off. The good news is that the ensembles haven't backed off at all on a more favorable look for the subforum. The bad news is we still have this long boring stretch to get through.

Yep, meant December 2000, will fix that in my original post, thanks for catching it.

Maybe there's something to that with these blocky stagnant patterns seemingly getting more frequent? But on the other hand could recency bias be at play? I only ask because my time out here is 10.5 years now and at least for me, these relatively lengthy dull stretches don't seem that much out of place. The legendary winter of 13-14 was very much out of the norm. Even the 2010-11 winter, my first out here, had a decent December, followed by a pretty quiet January until GHD I and then February really wasn't all that great out here after GHD I. I've wondered if the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters and then 13-14 and to a lesser extent 14-15 coming not too long after that stretch helped drive the perception of how a winter should be because that's when these forums became popular. I've heard it mentioned many times here that the 90s overall weren't great and neither were the 80s. The 2000s were pretty spotty too until the aforementioned stretch kicked off by 07-08. You had epic months like December '00 followed by long doldrums. You had good months like January '05 and February '07 following very long mild stretches and outright bad winters like 01-02 and 03-04 and much of 05-06. Don't get me wrong, I became passionate about the weather because of east coast snowstorms and badly want us to have a major region wide event this winter. But I really think our climo owes to having at least one or two lengthy disappointing stretches a winter even in solid winters.

The people who have a constant pathological need to downplay this virus are like the trolls we get toward the NWS when an alerted potential severe weather/tornado outbreak doesn't destroy their neighborhood. It's almost like people need to see a Contagion movie like scenario play out to feel validated. If a certain prominent politician and his most ardent supporters hadn't made it a sign of weakness to want take safety precautions against this virus, I feel confident in saying it would never have been as politicized. Europe's (and most notably recently the UK's) experience with covid probably shows there would've been no easy way out with this, but I doubt we would've done worse. The fact of the matter is this virus is the perfect storm precisely * because * most people are okay. It leads to too much focus on individual mortality risk, which especially the younger you get, is low, BUT still much higher than for other highly contagious infectious diseases. This has always been about collective/community risk vs individual risk and it's sad that so many people don't see that. The hospitalization metrics really tell you all you need to know about how serious this is before the horribly sad death numbers because these numbers are for covid only and obviously can go on to lessen the quality of care someone else may receive for a different ailment. Would anyone ever drive if their chances of a car accident were as high as a bad non-fatal outcome from this virus, like hospitalization and/or long hauler type case or prolonged pulmonary or cardiovascular effects? Most have never said to live life cowering in fear, but to take safety steps not only lowers your own risk and your family's risk, it also can help lessen the downstream effects. My whole house (my wife, 2 young kids and I) had covid back in late October-early November and yes, silver lining is our risk is much lower for now and likely significantly lower moving forward, but I never would have willingly chose the experience we went through even though it meant that it was safer to see my family for the holidays. (As an aside, I think it's quite possible our 14 year old dog died partially because of covid too.)