RCNYILWX

That map is better than when I commented on the EPS yesterday or the day before. That large ridge extending north of Alaska is I believe an extension of a -WPO and probably owing to the -AO. So if the MJO doesn't lose amplitude from unfavorable phases and keeps going into 8-1-2, I could believe very cold air getting down sometime in February. Would think the active flow pattern should continue as the La Nina forcing continues I'm the Pacific. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

DAB here. Missed most of the goods all evening thus far. Might get clipped by the west side of the band as it drops southeast. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Still have nightmares of the March 2018 miss in a similarly pronounced west based -NAO pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Filling in a bit on KDVN Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The high ratios did verify on Sunday but QPF was overdone in some of the models, so the guidance showing generally a coating to up to an inch to locally 2" was right for the wrong reason. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

So I guess it would be up to me to start that thread? Does anyone have the links to past storm threads? I live in southeast Naperville in the west/southwest suburbs. With the late December snow to ice and the New Year's slopfest, probably had about 3" or so peak depth which compacted down but we kept a lot of that for a while until losing coverage in the unshaded and/or south facing areas over the past week or so. My front yard is north facing and shaded, so never went down to grass because it's pretty glacierized stuff. Now we're back to full cover with Sunday's snow, but varied depth from a coating to a couple inches where the snow/ice remains. Been just enough to do a lot of sledding lately and it's nice because there's a good sledding hill in the parkway behind my house. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Snowstorms drove my interest in the weather from a young age too because I grew up in NYC and experienced some of the legendary storms on the NESIS list. I literally wrote my college essay about how the Blizzard of 1996 caused my obsession with the weather. When the winter is frustrating, I try to take the good with the bad. To be honest, my ideal winter now would be lots of snow but temps not too cold. As great as winter 13-14 was, being frigid for that long got kind of old. So if it's not gonna snow, I'd rather it not be CAD. I try to find things of interest meteorology wise even when it's quieter than we'd all like. I think when it comes down to it, it's not worth getting worked up over something I can't control. This winter has made me appreciate snow for the little we've had because my soon to be 4 year old son loves sledding and with the decently persistent snow cover we've had since the late December event, have gotten out with him several times and also brought my almost 2 year old daughter out a few times. There's nothing like seeing the joy in my son when he looks outside and sees new snow, because it reminds me of how I always have been with snow since I was a kid. Regarding talking about classic snowstorms and legendary winters, I'd totally be up for a thread with that sort of discussion. Maybe could also include links to the threads of great winter events of the past since AmWx has been in existence. What do you say@Hoosier ? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Take it to the bank Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 12z EPS already was already a slight improvement from the 00z run out in the extended, with Aleutian ridging farther east and more poleward. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 12z Euro solution really underscores how much time there is until we'll have a better grasp on the eventual outcome. Slower ejection of the main wave from the southwest allowed for more suppression by the northern stream and blocking. The million dollar question is can we find the sweet spot between the blocking exerting an influence but not too much and the southern stream wave timing. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

In general, yes, it also matters the position of the troughing in the EPO domain (northeast Pac) as to how hostile a pattern it is. When there's a strong PV lobe parked over much of Alaska, it's pretty much game set match, which is what happened in 2011-12. Moving forward, it's important to keep some Aleutian ridging to allow for cold air to get closer to our source region. The background pattern on the end of the last few ensemble runs is definitely a milder look with a +EPO, but possibly not a death knell if the troughing sets up far enough east/southeast in the EPO domain, particularly if the -AO/-NAO continue. Took a look at the MJO phase plot forecasts, with GEFS and to a greater extent the ECMWF, wanting to pop it into phase 6, a warmer phase for Feb, which probably helps explain the +EPO tendency late in the ensemble runs. I'm certainly not a MJO expert, but from what I do know, the lower the amplitude of the MJO wave, the weaker the influence on the pattern, which makes sense. Even the guidance that pops it into phase 6 are showing a pretty low amplitude, while the bias corrected GEFS keeps it basically in the COD, and the CFS suggests p7, a mild but not as warm phase for Feb (p7 composite looks fairly similar to mod-strong La Nina base state). Since it took quite a while to get to a -EPO and was delayed a bit from earlier forecasts, perhaps there's reason to think a quick reversion to +EPO might be rushed as well.

I think we're probably too far out to call individual operational run changes trends, though today's 12z runs thus far are a better look to get us what we want late this weekend into early next week. Can see the influence of the strong NAO block in those solutions.

I'm only commenting on the end of the EPS and GEFS which have shown unfavorable trends last few runs. It's quite possible they're rushing things, happens in both directions with the pattern out in the extended. The best we can say is that there's still dateline ridging and still NAO blocking, but we need the ridging near AK to stay farther east. It's possible that pattern shown verbatim is active, though with a milder risk.

Can't sugarcoat the trends on the ensembles out at the end of their ranges, not good. Hopefully they're rushing things. Either way, if pattern does revert to more hostile, highlights the importance of cashing in with the 25th-26th. I still want to believe that some of the operational runs are being too aggressive with the amped cutter look because it occurs when the west based NAO block is at its strongest. The system coming quickly on the heels of a 1035 mb high overhead and the high being close by during the precip elevates the chance for a zone of freezing rain and sleet if the synoptic system is pretty amped. What's interesting about this winter is that I really wasn't optimistic going in. The unexpected sustained -AO/-NAO gave some hope, but thus far hasn't worked out in a beneficial way. Shows the importance of a good Pacific pattern. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

@beavis1729 It's one thing to wish you could get the perfect winter, but to rant every winter how that's the way it should be when that's just not possible wears thin on people. If your life circumstances don't allow you to move to your ideal winter climo, idk what it accomplishes to rail on a climo that never existed here and never will, other than prompting other members to troll your rants. Another thing to consider is that we have pretty easy access to places that get much more snow and continuous snow cover than here. Plus, 35-40" in an average winter for a metro area of this size is a decent winter climo. Just think of the winter/snow lovers who have to relocate due to their job to somewhere in the south where it rarely snows. I think some perspective is needed if you don't want people to snark at you.

. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

More complete write-up in my AFD today, but a few points here: we think the Kuchera ratios are low-balling tomorrow. Kuchera is based off the max wet bulb T from sfc to 500 mb, and warmest temps will be at the sfc. The flaw in the method is that when the DGZ is deep like tomorrow but sfc temps not that cold, it doesn't adjust for favorably deep DGZ, it's strictly based off MaxT aloft. The Cobb method is preferred and averages 15:1, which is what WPC also preferred in their assessment, while the Kuchera is only 9 or 10:1. ECMWF and NAMs have been in good agreement on that corridor of up to or slightly over 0.2" LE, which should fluff up to spots of 3"+ when accounting for the ratio. Our graphic is using a little bit of creative license because in reality the highest total I forecast within the CWA is 2.8", but we went broad in public facing message because if that 0.2"+ LE does occur, then 3"+ amounts are pretty likely. Another wild card is lake enhancement, which actually looks fairly decent for once. We'll see shortly what 00z CAMs show but the 18z NAMs and 12z NMM showed a wind shift to north behind sfc trough passage, which really increases the convergence, plus thermos being solid enough. Above models got the lake enhancement onto IL side for a few hours and then settled into NW IN. Could be a nice bonus wherever that sets up.

I noticed that the 12z run had something wrong with the output, looked like the coding of the data they get caused QPF to come in at 10x higher. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I look at this season as somewhat similar to 2012-13 thus far. That winter was mild in December through mid Jan, but did have two much better events than anything in most of the sub this winter (MSN ~2 ft dump, and warning criteria event in IND CWA on 12/26. The Chicago metro simply had wretched luck that season. ORD went into Feb with I think under 3" and finished up at 30.1 or something. The north suburbs had a huge Feb 2013 and then we finally all scored a regional warning event on March 5th. Bad luck came back to bite us again with the miss south for the storm in mid to late March that gave SPI 18". If we maintain some semblance of blocking (and recall Feb-March 2013 had a legit -NAO) in Feb and the pattern otherwise goes more classic La Nina, could be a decent month. I think 25-30" is a reasonable call at this vantage point. For our winter outlook, we went near normal, and I'll stick with that for now. If the potential late next weekend into early the week after works out, that would really help get the seasonal total back in a respectable range. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Are you right in the town of McHenry? We can send your report as an LSR once you have your final measurement. Nice to have a mini event that performed exactly to expectations. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Well that's part of the equation, the not having cold air deal, which is certainly the case now, has good ens support in finally changing for the better. The 12z EPS seemed to trend stronger in spiking ridging to and north of AK next week and the GEFS has been favoring that consistently, so that should get cross polar flow going in concert with continued Arctic and Atlantic domain blocking, along with -PNA keeping a steady stream of shortwaves coming ashore. There's nothing like the black hole AK vortex +++EPO from 2011-12 in the offing and since the ensembles haven't trended away from a colder and active look as the period has gotten closer, not inclined to punt now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It's the same thing every winter and considering how the models can't nail down events within 2 days, suggest not to get all worked up over operational runs beyond day 4-5. Looking at the ensembles, see no reason to back off from idea of getting into a favorable stretch for at least a solid event or two. Still would not rule out the Thursday-Friday overrunning setup from coming back into play. It hinges upon whether northern stream trough digs in too quick and confluence over the region shreds everything south, and I certainly wouldn't bank on the operational models having this nailed down 6 days out. Best signal in the ensembles is next weekend into early the following week, with a trough ejecting out of the southwest. This is the timeframe when the ensemble mean shows a biggest jump in snowfall, so a bunch of members are contributing to that. Obviously full spectrum of outcomes on the table including suppression, but on the other hand would still think the NAO helps prevent a full fledged warm cutter. Finally, the most recent ECMWF weeklies came in much less mild than the previous run due to a continuation of Arctic and Atlantic blocking. This winter has certainly been frustrating and I'm not really trying to be overly optimistic, just honest about predictability that far out. If and until the ensembles back off from their active look, I'd again recommend against using operational models to make definitive statements about nothing good happening 5-7+ days out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Drove under one on the way to work, rippage with huge flakes. 1/2 mile or less visibility and instantly coated the road. Bodes well for the rest of the day. SPS going out now. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The operational ECMWF was the second strongest member of the 12z Euro suite. One other member down to 972 mb over northern Lake Michigan. Most were in the 1000s or 990s and farther east. That's probably a good indicator of the op solution being a lower probability scenario. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Tomorrow looks fun on the 00z HRRR. Been quite a while since we've had a solid convective snow shower setup. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk