RCNYILWX

The changes on the 12z EPS vs the 00z are in a word, exciting. Not exaggerating in saying it's one of the better looks for spread the wealth I can recall seeing on that product. Spiking gradually retrograding ridging over the western half of AK and strong west based -NAO with a -PNA. Too bad that great look is not closer in, but trending better obviously preferred to the opposite. Let me know if anyone would like some pertinent images posted.

The upcoming pattern was described as looking similar to the second half of winter 18-19, except with a -NAO, on the New England forum. It could be worth the wait but certainly would have to be historic to make up for this very long boring stretch. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I never like to bust a forecast, but figure if the bust is for less clouds than forecast, that would be appreciated by most given how cloudy it's been lately. You're probably in the minority lol and you get your clouds back today and probably through tomorrow too. I know Wednesday-Wednesday night looks mild ahead of the front, but I wouldn't lock in temps being able to rise that much yet. That kind of warmth aloft coming in will mean a sharp inversion locks in if there's existing cloud cover (which looks quite possible) and surface advection will be from over areas still with deeper snow cover. Wouldn't be surprised if forecast high temps bust low on Wednesday.

There's been decent run to run shifts which we should still see for a few days before specific details become more clear, though tonight's Euro and GEM bring in some snow for a decent chunk of the sub with the pattern change on Thursday-Friday timeframe. There's then some additional snow potential as the upper low pivots across the region and additional clipper type waves of energy move in behind it over the weekend. Overall ideas remain on track, starting out northwest flow and then possibly trending to more zonally oriented flow pattern and baroclinic zone for week 2. The ensembles are trending toward an increasingly negative PNA in the long range, possibly the La Nina forcing finally showing up. If the polar (AO/NAO) blocking remains sufficient, southeast ridging tendency of -PNA would remain more muted and could be good for an active wintry pattern into February.

Looking deeper into the long range, liking the potential to go to more quasi zonal over our region, with a chance for systems to take shape farther south out in the west or high Plains. It's been interesting to note how the GEFS has been decidedly colder out in the longer range (10-15 day), probably a product of the GEFS establishing better cross polar flow with a decent -EPO. Either way a pretty solid look on the ensemble mean with plenty of cold air available on the GEFS and cold enough on the EPS, accompanied by a west based -NAO and a -PNA. EPS images are top 3 and GEFS are bottom 3

Still looks on track for pattern change late next week and the more favorable pattern continuing beyond that. The EPS seemed to have a few run hiccup and the 12z reverted back to closer to what it had been showing. Pattern change doesn't equal snow for everyone right away but hopefully it gets active enough to have more opportunities for more areas. It no doubt does suck to have this very long boring stretch after an already bad start to the season. Recall that 2018-19 got off to a big start for parts of the sub and then essentially stopped December-mid January then became very active after that point through April, benefitting west and northwestern subforum the most. With bonafide NAO and AO blocking in place this time, and possibly locked in for a while longer from the stratospheric warming event effects, it could be a good period of winter weather. Just have to wait and see.

Still looks like all systems go based on continued good run to run consistency in the ensembles. Starting to finally see within day 10 on the operational models signs of what we've discussing on here. See no reason to diverge from thinking that during mid to late next week, we should start to see a stream of clipper/hybrid type waves in the initially northwest flow pattern and the lake effect belts should really take off. The week after next should trend to quasi-zonal with plenty of cold air involved due to the ridge spike to north of AK setting up a steady cross polar flow connection and the -NAO helping to keep ridge spikes ahead of vigorous short waves in check. As[mention=6644]Snowstorms[/mention] wrote, signs do point toward that retrograding ridge setting up a more classic Niña type look into February. Parts of the sub had an epic February in 2019 in a decidedly Nina like pattern (despite that being a weak Nino) without North Atlantic and Arctic blocking. I feel more optimistic too that the pattern can remain favorable for longer for more areas with a decent likelihood of the blocking lingering.

I don't think it's wrong to speculate about the possibility that it was an accidental release of a hybrid virus from lab experiments. The author does cite field experts about their own speculation on potential it was an accidental lab release. The thing is, the virus probably still is of natural origin, but the intermediary animal hasn't and probably won't ever be determined because of the CCP's pervasive efforts to cover up the origin of SARS-CoV2. Given the cover-up by the CCP and seeming coincidence that the spread of the virus likely started in the very city where a high security lab is researching bat viruses, I don't think it's baseless to wonder. None of us that I know of on here are experts on virology but yet I don't think it's unfair to raise the issue the author did despite the fact he doesn't have expertise in this area. It goes both ways, China covering up origin of the virus, neither proves nor negates it was an accidental lab release. The original SARS was zoonotic and yet the CCP engaged in a cover-up with that too. It's what they do. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The only thing I'll agree with is this: Dr Scott Gottlieb (Trump's former FDA chief), who's been a very good source of covid info, thinks we should be opening up higher risk age groups younger than 75+ instead of trying to focus on designated priority groups. This makes a good deal of sense: we're trying to race to get to population level herd immunity, so the priority should be as many shots in arms as possible. Let people who want to get vaccinated get the vaccine. The highest demand is in 60+ age group, so let them get it and if younger essential workers want to wait, let them and let others at a higher risk get the vaccine. Ultimately though, it is important that all age groups get it. We need to promote the importance of doing so. It's not badgering younger people -- the only way we can get to herd immunity is if at least 70% of the population is immune. On the last point, there's not a chance the virus started in Europe. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Spot on, it's unfortunate to have the zzzzs that long but hopefully it ends up being worth the wait. Very good EPS and GEFS agreement in the western ridging retrograding off the west coast beyond January 1/15. The other noteworthy development in the past few full ens runs is amplified poleward ridging with the ridge axis up across the center of AK. Given the continued Arctic and North Atlantic blocking, that strengthening -EPO signal ups the ante for very cold air to get involved in addition to the RNA (-PNA) due to the retrograding western ridge supporting a more active look. Prior to the -PNA (if the ens are on the right track) we could start to see more clippers materialize and the lake effect belts should take off. The good news is that the ensembles haven't backed off at all on a more favorable look for the subforum. The bad news is we still have this long boring stretch to get through.

Yep, meant December 2000, will fix that in my original post, thanks for catching it.

Maybe there's something to that with these blocky stagnant patterns seemingly getting more frequent? But on the other hand could recency bias be at play? I only ask because my time out here is 10.5 years now and at least for me, these relatively lengthy dull stretches don't seem that much out of place. The legendary winter of 13-14 was very much out of the norm. Even the 2010-11 winter, my first out here, had a decent December, followed by a pretty quiet January until GHD I and then February really wasn't all that great out here after GHD I. I've wondered if the 2007-08 through 2010-11 winters and then 13-14 and to a lesser extent 14-15 coming not too long after that stretch helped drive the perception of how a winter should be because that's when these forums became popular. I've heard it mentioned many times here that the 90s overall weren't great and neither were the 80s. The 2000s were pretty spotty too until the aforementioned stretch kicked off by 07-08. You had epic months like December '00 followed by long doldrums. You had good months like January '05 and February '07 following very long mild stretches and outright bad winters like 01-02 and 03-04 and much of 05-06. Don't get me wrong, I became passionate about the weather because of east coast snowstorms and badly want us to have a major region wide event this winter. But I really think our climo owes to having at least one or two lengthy disappointing stretches a winter even in solid winters.

The people who have a constant pathological need to downplay this virus are like the trolls we get toward the NWS when an alerted potential severe weather/tornado outbreak doesn't destroy their neighborhood. It's almost like people need to see a Contagion movie like scenario play out to feel validated. If a certain prominent politician and his most ardent supporters hadn't made it a sign of weakness to want take safety precautions against this virus, I feel confident in saying it would never have been as politicized. Europe's (and most notably recently the UK's) experience with covid probably shows there would've been no easy way out with this, but I doubt we would've done worse. The fact of the matter is this virus is the perfect storm precisely * because * most people are okay. It leads to too much focus on individual mortality risk, which especially the younger you get, is low, BUT still much higher than for other highly contagious infectious diseases. This has always been about collective/community risk vs individual risk and it's sad that so many people don't see that. The hospitalization metrics really tell you all you need to know about how serious this is before the horribly sad death numbers because these numbers are for covid only and obviously can go on to lessen the quality of care someone else may receive for a different ailment. Would anyone ever drive if their chances of a car accident were as high as a bad non-fatal outcome from this virus, like hospitalization and/or long hauler type case or prolonged pulmonary or cardiovascular effects? Most have never said to live life cowering in fear, but to take safety steps not only lowers your own risk and your family's risk, it also can help lessen the downstream effects. My whole house (my wife, 2 young kids and I) had covid back in late October-early November and yes, silver lining is our risk is much lower for now and likely significantly lower moving forward, but I never would have willingly chose the experience we went through even though it meant that it was safer to see my family for the holidays. (As an aside, I think it's quite possible our 14 year old dog died partially because of covid too.)

At least there's something interesting meteorologically until we might see chances increase of finally getting more of the metro a solid event. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

If only we could be as creative in our AFDs like back in the day when Gino had a Facebook group dedicated to his AFDs haha. My main source of optimism right now is that it looks like we're unlikely to melt the glacier much before the hopeful arrival of a better pattern, so until that time, at least it's better than no snow OTG on these cloudy/foggy days and the kids can get out and sled every day. I spent hours doing that with my kids over the holiday weekend [emoji4]

I attached the ensemble mean (EPS first 2 and GEFS next 2 images) 200 mb isotachs (wind speeds) to illustrate. If you go from current to out around day 10 or so, the pattern blocks off the northern stream/Polar Jet and is very southern stream dominant, hence the overall zzzz look. The pattern on the attached images is quite different from that, with the northern Pacific/polar jet coming ashore and coupling with the enhanced southern stream forced underneath the block. The -NAO is quite evident in the anti-cyclonic curvature of the height lines up to the vicinity of Greenland. Anyway, I'd envision Pacific hybrid type systems and clippers in the above pattern depending on point of entry short-wave impulses. If the -PNA trend the EPS and GEFS are showing out at the end of their respective runs is legit, then you can get a west southwest to east northeast tracking Colorado low that would eventually see the primary running into the block and a secondary probably redevelop underneath. Could also see that with more vigorous Pac hybrid systems tracking from west northwest to east southeast. I might get attacked by Angrysummons for this, but if I'm not mistaken both 2009-10 and 2010-11, the most recent examples of prolonged sustained -AO/-NAO blocks during the heart of met winter also were accompanied by periods of neutral to negative PNA. Not bringing these up as a promise of what we'll get, but as a way to demonstrate that the east coast weenies getting excited about the upcoming pattern doesn't have to automatically mean we'll get screwed out in the central and western subforum. I certainly can't guarantee some systems not getting suppressed and favoring southern parts of sub and points south and then the east coast, but as modeled and if we can get them into non-fantasy time-range, the ensemble means look solid for a good chunk of the sub to cash in potentially. You don't see it by looking solely at the 500 mb anomalies, but there is a suppressed WAR progged off the east coast, so that's not a northwest flow CAD hell look to me once out to mid month. Finally, if we go back to the last strong -NAO during the cold season, March-April 2018, that period had some more than solid winter systems that benefitted portions of the sub. Would like to see any long range experts or enthusiasts chime in with feedback on my thoughts. Don't want to get hopes up too much quite yet when there's a lot of time to go.

This stagnant/blocky pattern we're in with extensive snow/glacier cover is why I'm at times loathe to advertise those warm color AN probs CPC graphics this time of year. With no synoptic system to shake things up with a warm sector to melt some of the snow/ice, can easily lean colder highs and milder lows than much of the guidance is showing. These patterns give the MOS fits because the 850/925 mb temps would favor generally AN temps... if we had no snow cover and sun. Because of the warmer mins, we'll average above normal for average temps during this stretch, but I don't think anyone but Beavis would confuse this with warm. After current round of fog and hoar frost and spotty low level snow showers improves behind the cold front tonight, looking at another good setup for these conditions to return Tuesday evening into Wednesday, which might not really clear out until Saturday given little change in the pattern.

Revisiting what I posted earlier today, no changes in overall thinking based off most recent ensemble runs. End of 12z EPS quite promising in showing a slightly -PNA developing as the western NOAM ridge retrogrades off the west coast, which the GEFS continues to point toward as well. We can only hope this look gets to within 10 days because I could see it offering multiple chances to more than localized portions of the sub given the -AO/-NAO favored to lock in. Prior to that, definitely a stagnant zzzz look. There's a chance some southern stream energy can break through later Sunday into Monday to bring a light snow threat for some areas. Ensembles showing low to medium chances of light measurable QPF during that time and the 12z GGEM did show a weak wave as well. Definitely not seeing anything supporting even widespread advisory type snows while we're in this blocky STJ dominated pattern, barring sizable changes in the medium range.

It doesn't look great through mid month but it also doesn't look like a torch because of the strong west based -NAO. Without it, it would be a full on torch. Pacific jet will remain active during this time with a tendency for systems to come underneath, though you can't rule out individual waves edging a bit north. One thing to keep in mind about the upcoming pattern is it should help keep a lot of the snow/glacier cover in place if you're into that. Mid month and beyond should have colder air involved as the EPO trends neutral to slightly negative (the ens means h5 looks more negative than the charts) and PNA also trends neutral to possibly slightly negative while maintaining -AO/-NAO. The pattern hasn't really gotten pushed back, week 1 into week 2 never looked great. I wouldn't rule out some snow for parts of the sub, but better chances should arrive toward and beyond 1/15 barring big changes from what we're seeing later in the ensemble runs. If we can get the slightly negative PNA the GEFS is advertising toward end of run, that would only help but even the EPS has the ridge axis far west enough that it doesn't scream CAD necessarily. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Congrats @A-L-E-K Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

As others have mentioned in January thread, tonight looks good for a solid fairly short- lived burst of snow. Nice mid-level lapse rate (>7C/km) plume advecting northward over the mini trowal across northeast and central IL and northwest Indiana. One of these similar setups last winter produced a localized swath of 3-4". I think 1-2" amounts will be common for all but the northern tier, with spots of 2-3". Can't rule out a very localized 3"+ given the nature of these potent little waves with good lapse rates.

Enjoy your 1-3"

Borderline moderate snow here in southeast Naperville, really wet stuff, but will be a nice topper to the glacier. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

There was an AWOS in Lake in the Hills that has since gone defunct. I'm not sure the process in getting an AWOS to an airport but it sure would be nice to have one in McHenry. As far as ASOS goes, I think it depends on the size of the airport to get one put in. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Yeah clearly something wrong with RFD. I think we're going to have the electronics technicians go up there to check it out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk