RCNYILWX

Also shows marginal temps overall. Surface 0 line is way up in northwest IL valid 12z Saturday. Gonna need heavy rates to consistently overcome the boundary layer issues. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

In that setup, your backyard would be screwed until winds flip northwesterly Saturday evening. Lake is still quite mild. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Some initial thoughts on weekend system... When I posted a few days ago, wasn't too optimistic because of the bad antecedent air mass and rain prior to any snow. What happened in the past obviously doesn't determine what happens in a different event in the future. But, the fact that good rain to snow scenarios are rare suggests that lots of things need to work out at this latitude, so to be skeptical in this range. Give a nod to Euro for decent run to run consistency past couple days. But since it's the only model that's been showing this on the operational, want to see some multi-model support before getting more excited. While the EPS members trended better up until 06z run this morning, what I've noticed in the ensembles overall (including 12z GEFS) is that a majority the members with a solid hit favor areas north and northwest of here. The 12z UKMET looks like many of these ensemble members. It's gonna be a big time thread the needle to get a strong enough system to get good totals without it being biased farther northwest in the key synoptic features. Also wanted to note to use caution in getting too excited by the 10:1 and Kuchera maps from the Euro. As modeled on recent runs, temps don't fall solidly below freezing until the end of the event, along with good cold advection aloft (850 mb) not arriving til Sunday morning. These are all reasons to lean lower than 10:1 for ratios. I'd suggest looking at the snow depth output from WxBell or weathermodels.com as a good first guess and then can assess reasons why you'd get ratios to 10:1 or higher in spots.

First post a long time. Have nothing really optimistic to add to what's been written recently for the next few weeks. Barring no major changes for the weekend system (I'm not currently liking that period to work out), going to have to hope there's something snow wise in the cooler interlude behind that. Interestingly enough, both the GEFS and EPS have a -NAO look for most of their recent runs. Problem is they both develop a ++EPO toward the end of the run, which would torch the CONUS even in the presence of a -NAO. Would in all likelihood mean another warm Christmas period if that look pans out. Concur that January is probably best chance for a decent snow pattern for a time. For what they're worth, weeklies kind of point that way as well. In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F. Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I can confirm that IND has a positive COVID case. IWX is providing service back-up through the weekend. So far so good here. Hopefully it stays that way. The way the agency is limiting our potential for exposure is by limiting people in the office to 2 people as much as possible, with main exception to that being severe weather. Everyone else is teleworking and we've developed remote capabilities so teleworkers can help the ops staff as needed. Last Saturday, we had someone doing mesoanalysis remotely. Edit: just got word it wasn't a positive case but someone who is a high risk of testing positive because of exposure to a positive COVID case. That forecaster is on quarantine and those who were in contact with the forecaster are self quarantining. They are planning to open back up tomorrow.

'Not an evil and monolithic orwellian total state'? Ask the 1 million Uighurs in concentration camps what they think about that statement. Don't fall for the propaganda: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/china-coronavirus-blame-victory-propaganda-trump.html I won't further belabor this point but please don't equivocate between us and their government and don't say nice things about a regime that's the descendant of ones that murdered millions upon millions of its people and still 'disappears' critics, including some whistleblowers of their handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

To@sokolow, @King James,@RobertSul, your responses are well taken and I agree. I wanted to focus on the China angle not to deflect from the poor response our own government has had, including the testing fiasco. There's many elements to it, and it's been largely a collective failure. The travel ban from China probably bought us some time but then we sqandered that time with a largely business as usual approach that spanned the entire month of February and the beginning of March. Hopefully the actions being taken since at a state level and the federal level finally taking it more seriously can avoid a true Wuhan/Italy/Spain/Iran scenario in many cities. But returning to the China point, I think we can both be critical of our government's prep and response and also acknowledge the role the Chinese government played in this. The important thing to know is that you can't trust anything coming out of authoritarian governments like China because they control the flow of info and censor anything bad for the leadership. This is very analogous to the USSR's initial handling of Chernobyl. They have the control over their populace, they have a police state, I don't see how it was a logistical thing to shut down Wuhan and Hubei province because they had the ability to do it prior, they did it when they did it as a last resort because their cover up couldn't prevent a situation that was rapidly spiraling out of control. In terms of big picture geopolitics, people need to know China is an evil actor and things shouldn't return to the way they were with their role in the global economy and supply chain once this crisis subsides, whenever that happens. Good Twitter thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1240708244881854465 Direct link to article in Twitter thread: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/china-trolling-world-and-avoiding-blame/608332/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html Excellent and chilling data driven account of the rapid spread of the virus. Also, vividly demonstrates the blame the Chinese Communist government deserves for this global calamity. 7 weeks passed from the initial signs of community spread in Wuhan until they locked down Wuhan and the Hubei province. In that time an estimated 7 million people left the Wuhan area. Had the Chinese Govt sought to help its people and by extension the rest of the world instead of covering up the virus and threatening doctors sounding the alarm with jail, thousands of lives could have been saved and trillions of dollars of wealth not destroyed. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

@SchaumburgStormer's post earlier on this thread was very well stated. The stats show that those of us younger and healthier and kids are essentially disease vectors ourselves. Yes the overall mortality rate is higher for age ~20-40/50 than the flu, but the risk of death is still very low. We owe it to our loved ones and everyone else's loved ones in the higher risk groups to do everything in our power to flatten the curve, which means taking hygiene seriously and avoiding crowds. And the feared health system capacity exceedence would then go on to produce worse outcomes for people with other ailments. It's disheartening to here that the bars were still packed out last night for St. Patrick's Day weekend. The unfortunate thing is that many people weigh individual risk over collective risk, which is selfish in this scenario. If the virus does get out of hand and the health care system exceeding capacity, it's going to take state and local governments forcing bars and restaurants to close or shut down early in the day Otherwise, the sad fact is for some people, it won't hit home for them until a loved one is in the ICU. Hopefully the social distancing measures implemented this week in the US and Canada were done just in the nick of time to avoid a worst case scenario and the bar/club going crowd starts to take this more seriously. And I agree with those who've said this feels like we're living in a movie. I lived through 9/11 in NYC and this is the only thing approaching that since then.

This isn't a bad thing either for when (if?) a significant pattern change occurs. The slow ULL movement caused by the omega block will produce a very favorable heavy rain setup in the Plains, with a midlevel moisture feed from the EPAC and low level trajectories from the Gulf.