RCNYILWX

At this point, with the steady weakening of the band, it doesn't really meet SQW criteria. Not working now so I'm not sure the exact discussions that went on but perhaps they felt it better fit a longer lead time with possible impacts into the commute from period of snow followed by quickly falling temps. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Euro ensemble also with a chilly and active look at h5 out out beyond the early to mid week cold shot next week. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This is probably an obvious statement to make, but we did check a few years ago and there's a strong correlation between precip anomaly and snowfall amounts. CPC has essentially the entire subforum in enhanced probabilities for AN precip in the DJF and JFM outlooks. They also have a lean toward cooler anomalies for a portion of the sub in the JFM outlook. So if the above normal precip works out, that would seem to increase the odds for above normal snowfall when also accounting for the head start, unless it ends up being a blowtorch winter. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I did the wind forecast for the event for LOT today. We went peak gusts in 45-48 kt range. My current expectation for this event is high confidence in widespread 50+ mph gusts and we'll likely have a few ob sites reach warning criteria (58+). Not certain we'll have widespread verification of warning criteria (county based verification) assuming we go with a warning but frequent gusts in 50-55 mph range will be enough to cause tree damage and power outages and probably blow over some semis on north to south or southwest to northeast interstates. There's probably little functional difference to the public between a high end advisory event and a lower end warning event. One aspect I didn't look too closely at today is cloud base height. With strong cold advection and steep lapse rates we'll certainly develop a stratocu field. If there's something that could lead to underperforming it would be cloud bases under 3kft because the highest winds aloft are generally up around 850 mb. BUFKIT soundings are indicating that we will tap into those top of channel (mixed layer) gusts but if cloud base height is lower that could limit things somewhat to solidly advisory criteria and lower likelihood of warning criteria being met. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Most recent NAM is actually a bit more bullish on winds at the 850 mb level than the GFS, which is usually the other way around. Verbatim peak gusts on 06z Euro for LOT CWA are 50-60 mph. On BUFKIT, using the momentum transfer tool, usually like to see mean mixed layer gusts closer to 50 kt and top of the channel winds solidly over 50 kt to feel confident about widespread warning criteria. 06z GFS would be close for probably southwest CWA but more of a high end advisory look elsewhere in the CWA, while 06z NAM looks more supportive of warning criteria for more of the CWA. From these, high end advisory is a lock and warning criteria certainly possible. We'll see how things trend the next 2 days. Possible that the PM forecast package today goes out with a High Wind Watch or tomorrow morning. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

And then the Euro completely backed off lol Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Doesn't seem like the smoke should dampen insolation and thus instability too much. Even with pretty thick smoke yesterday we got to low-locally mid 80s highs without a problem. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

IMO using the baseline of the issued Enhanced Risk, placement should either be shifted north into northern IL or expanded from current area to include northwest 2/3 of LOT CWA. Based off path of well defined shortwave tracking across the area around mid afternoon, strongest mid-level winds and deep layer wind shear will be across northern IL and southern WI. There will be more than enough instability area wide and very steep lapse rates, considering that we already had pretty stout elevated hailers this morning over northern IL and southern WI. Looks like a solid early summer severe day, with large to isold sig hail with initial discrete/semi discrete storms likely trending to more of a damaging wind risk if things as expected congeal/grow upscale. Doesn't look like much of a tornado threat with weak low level winds, little/no directional shear, and soundings showing well mixed low levels. Would likely need outflow boundary interaction for any brief tor threat, or possibly in proximity to the weak surface low moving over southern WI. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

This isn't a bad thing either for when (if?) a significant pattern change occurs. The slow ULL movement caused by the omega block will produce a very favorable heavy rain setup in the Plains, with a midlevel moisture feed from the EPAC and low level trajectories from the Gulf.