RCNYILWX

First post a long time. Have nothing really optimistic to add to what's been written recently for the next few weeks. Barring no major changes for the weekend system (I'm not currently liking that period to work out), going to have to hope there's something snow wise in the cooler interlude behind that. Interestingly enough, both the GEFS and EPS have a -NAO look for most of their recent runs. Problem is they both develop a ++EPO toward the end of the run, which would torch the CONUS even in the presence of a -NAO. Would in all likelihood mean another warm Christmas period if that look pans out. Concur that January is probably best chance for a decent snow pattern for a time. For what they're worth, weeklies kind of point that way as well. In our local winter outlook (NWS LOT), we leaned warmer (actually got a nastygram from CPC for going against their temperature outlook 2 winters ago so we didn't explicitly say warmer than normal), and AN precip, which has strongest signal in Ninas. Since December is leaning dry, we should get most of our winter precip in J-F. Snow wise, think somehow we'll end up within range of normal. Last year was crappy as we all know and it eeked out just slightly below normal, though did have a head start from late Oct-Nov events. We're overdue for an area wide higher end warning event, so hoping we get 1 or 2 systems to track favorably. Figure if we do get into a more classic Niña pattern, we can manage to get one to work out ala 1999. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think you might be right on that, someone can correct me if I'm wrong though. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Lurker on this thread from the Chicago NWS office. I'm originally from NYC, so interest in weather started with noreasters, especially Blizzard of 96. Anyway, have noticed a lot of discussion on WxBell snow map algorithms. Last winter out here we found that for the Euro the modeled snow depth algorithm often did a better job than the clown maps. Curious if any of the other mets on here have noticed similar. For all those getting a pasting from this storm, enjoy! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Liking the ARW tomorrow night and Euro continues to be locked in. If we had northwest flow aloft, would've been better for faster propagation and maintaining severe farther south. That said, temps well above 80 deep into evening with 70s Td, and breezy southerly winds should yield at most a shallow stable layer. Expecting the outflow and 850-300 mb thicknesses pointing southeast ahead of the MCS to do the trick in keeping it decently strong farther south than you'd normally expect given less than ideal 500 mb flow and time of night. As Alek has been mentioning, in support of this idea is strong low level jet pulling from a very steep lapse rate plume, and large (>2k j/kg) MUCAPE reservoir. Best chance for severe winds in LOT CWA looking like northern tier but could see severe threat extending south toward I-80. The faster movement the better to maintain intensity farther south. Edit: spoke to SPC day 2 update forecaster and it sounds like he's gonna pull the risk areas farther south, with slight possibly down near or slightly across WI/IL state line.

It's still running on the ESRL page. Obviously not nearly as good an interface as COD. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

We fixed it. 82 is what we came up with, which is much more reasonable. I believe that was with the help of the observer doing a manual observation. The ASOS had a power surge that likely resulted in the problems. We also noticed that the low temperature in the afternoon CLI was incorrect, erroneous 54 degree reading at 10 something AM CDT. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Any flooding you know of there? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Just put out an infographic on our website and social media. Even though Chicago and Rockford didn't overperform, it was still the coldest May morning since 5/3/04 at ORD and coldest since 5/4/05 at RFD. I did a quick query for the Rensselaer COOP site which bottomed out at 24. There's 9 missing years but most years do have data going back to 1902. The low there is by far the coldest in their records in the month of May. The latest reading of 24 degrees or colder is April 25th. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

April 2, 2016 redux. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The thinking for our area is that the biggest concern is the strong capping that could potentially hold. However, the conditional threat is rather high given how steep the lapse rates are along with more than sufficient bulk shear. We routinely get marginal or even slight risks in this sort of scenario where strong EML capping is a concern. And then to go farther and remove the general thunder when that's always broad brushed while several models not just the Euro show CI in the area it was removed from is an even bigger head scratcher. The Euro has had essentially the same scenario for 4 days in a row, which doesn't necessarily mean it's right, but it hasn't diverged as it's gotten closer to the event. Considering that the Euro typically does quite well with temperatures, dew points and thus instability in this area, I'm not sure why it was completely discounted by Goss. What makes it tough is that the outlook text doesn't even explain why the change was made, plus the fact that within marginal or slight risk categories the SPC never collaborates proactively with the WFOs. We have to chat them to get feedback about how the outlook may look. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I'm completely baffled by that outlook. The ECMWF has had CI over northwest/north central IL every run since at least Friday. And SPC took general thunder out from that area. It makes no sense. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Liking Tuesday for a potential NW flow severe event somewhere in N/C IL. Wind/shear profiles provisionally would favor supercells and models in good agreement on strong EML with plume of very steep lapse rates overhead (near or above 8C/km 700-500 mb). 12z ECMWF verbatim would support a potentially sig hail threat. Boundary layer moisture and thus LCL heights are somewhat questionable for for tor threat. There's been variance on warm frontal progress, though 12z op runs favored area getting solidly into warm sector ahead of cold front. Warm front getting hung up some would probably elevate tor potential. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I can confirm that IND has a positive COVID case. IWX is providing service back-up through the weekend. So far so good here. Hopefully it stays that way. The way the agency is limiting our potential for exposure is by limiting people in the office to 2 people as much as possible, with main exception to that being severe weather. Everyone else is teleworking and we've developed remote capabilities so teleworkers can help the ops staff as needed. Last Saturday, we had someone doing mesoanalysis remotely. Edit: just got word it wasn't a positive case but someone who is a high risk of testing positive because of exposure to a positive COVID case. That forecaster is on quarantine and those who were in contact with the forecaster are self quarantining. They are planning to open back up tomorrow.

'Not an evil and monolithic orwellian total state'? Ask the 1 million Uighurs in concentration camps what they think about that statement. Don't fall for the propaganda: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/03/china-coronavirus-blame-victory-propaganda-trump.html I won't further belabor this point but please don't equivocate between us and their government and don't say nice things about a regime that's the descendant of ones that murdered millions upon millions of its people and still 'disappears' critics, including some whistleblowers of their handling of the coronavirus outbreak. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

To@sokolow, @King James,@RobertSul, your responses are well taken and I agree. I wanted to focus on the China angle not to deflect from the poor response our own government has had, including the testing fiasco. There's many elements to it, and it's been largely a collective failure. The travel ban from China probably bought us some time but then we sqandered that time with a largely business as usual approach that spanned the entire month of February and the beginning of March. Hopefully the actions being taken since at a state level and the federal level finally taking it more seriously can avoid a true Wuhan/Italy/Spain/Iran scenario in many cities. But returning to the China point, I think we can both be critical of our government's prep and response and also acknowledge the role the Chinese government played in this. The important thing to know is that you can't trust anything coming out of authoritarian governments like China because they control the flow of info and censor anything bad for the leadership. This is very analogous to the USSR's initial handling of Chernobyl. They have the control over their populace, they have a police state, I don't see how it was a logistical thing to shut down Wuhan and Hubei province because they had the ability to do it prior, they did it when they did it as a last resort because their cover up couldn't prevent a situation that was rapidly spiraling out of control. In terms of big picture geopolitics, people need to know China is an evil actor and things shouldn't return to the way they were with their role in the global economy and supply chain once this crisis subsides, whenever that happens. Good Twitter thread: https://mobile.twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1240708244881854465 Direct link to article in Twitter thread: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/china-trolling-world-and-avoiding-blame/608332/ Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/22/world/coronavirus-spread.html Excellent and chilling data driven account of the rapid spread of the virus. Also, vividly demonstrates the blame the Chinese Communist government deserves for this global calamity. 7 weeks passed from the initial signs of community spread in Wuhan until they locked down Wuhan and the Hubei province. In that time an estimated 7 million people left the Wuhan area. Had the Chinese Govt sought to help its people and by extension the rest of the world instead of covering up the virus and threatening doctors sounding the alarm with jail, thousands of lives could have been saved and trillions of dollars of wealth not destroyed. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

@SchaumburgStormer's post earlier on this thread was very well stated. The stats show that those of us younger and healthier and kids are essentially disease vectors ourselves. Yes the overall mortality rate is higher for age ~20-40/50 than the flu, but the risk of death is still very low. We owe it to our loved ones and everyone else's loved ones in the higher risk groups to do everything in our power to flatten the curve, which means taking hygiene seriously and avoiding crowds. And the feared health system capacity exceedence would then go on to produce worse outcomes for people with other ailments. It's disheartening to here that the bars were still packed out last night for St. Patrick's Day weekend. The unfortunate thing is that many people weigh individual risk over collective risk, which is selfish in this scenario. If the virus does get out of hand and the health care system exceeding capacity, it's going to take state and local governments forcing bars and restaurants to close or shut down early in the day Otherwise, the sad fact is for some people, it won't hit home for them until a loved one is in the ICU. Hopefully the social distancing measures implemented this week in the US and Canada were done just in the nick of time to avoid a worst case scenario and the bar/club going crowd starts to take this more seriously. And I agree with those who've said this feels like we're living in a movie. I lived through 9/11 in NYC and this is the only thing approaching that since then.

Certainly too far out still to feel comfortable but I like that the EPS hasn't lost the general look it's shown over the past several days, which continued with the 00z run tonight. The EPS has definitely performed the best out of the ensembles this winter, so that alone gives a reason for cautious optimism. We're going to have well above normal temperatures for DJF no matter what but the bottom line is getting a good region wide event and hopefully more than 1 to help salvage the season. We can do that if the pattern look that's been shown doesn't trend substantially worse and things break right on the evolution of individual synoptic waves. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

ECMWF ensemble took a small step back with 00z run last night but today's 12z run went back to a nice west based -EPO with southeast ridging setting up that gradient pattern you mentioned. The run total mean and member snowfall outputs from both EPS and GEFS are really impressive (and something we haven't seen since last winter) and strongly suggestive of the active wintry pattern that could set up starting with whatever happens Tuesday onward through mid February. Definitely shades of Feb 2019 in the medium to long range on the ensembles. If we can keep the storm track a bit more muted than last year, then more of us could cash in than last year when it was mostly IA, WI, MN and northern MI that were hammered, while we dealt with mixing issues and several icing events in northern IL, IN and southern MI. Need to see that -EPO lock in as we get closer to feel more confident moving forward. Saw on another board that OHweather's company is going with AN snowfall for Feb for the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, so hopefully he chimes in here.

Agree on the active look. The MJO trends indicate a likelihood of a -PNA and southeast ridging, also supported by the ens mean height anomalies. So hopefully we can get the -EPO that has been advertised in the medium-long range to keep the northern half or so of the sub on the good side of the thermal gradient. If it becomes yet another phantom -EPO, the background pattern would argue for a warmer risk, but still active and maybe enough cold air depending on storm track for parts of the northwestern sub to benefit. One thing is for sure, the AO and NAO will remain raging positive for the foreseeable future.

Great, informative post. Have learned a lot about long range forecasting from reading your posts over the years. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

00z EPS (ECMWF ensemble) has continued theme of last few days of going to a very cold pattern look out in the day 10-15. MJO is at a very high amplitude phase 4 crossing into 5, warm phases for the winter explaining the very pronounced east/southeast ridge currently. According to information posted on other subs by Don S, this progression has historically supported the MJO wave keeping enough amplitude to progress into the colder phases. Assuming this holds, the idea of a sustained colder pattern unfolding later in January and beyond holds merit. The GEFS has also basically gone over to the EPS idea out in the extended. I still think our best chance for a more significant spread the wealth type of event would be prior to the pattern going in the direction of the EPS, if it's on the right track. Thereafter, the exact position and orientation of mean western and Alaskan ridging and downstream trough over will determine whether we go to a very cold and dry clipper type pattern (ex. Feb 2015 after GHD II) or a more active but just as cold pattern (ex. January-February 2014). Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The 00z EPS, in a big change in recent days, went to a broad west coast ridging and Alaska ridging out in day 10-15. PNA trended back to neutral on the teleconnection charts. So the hope there would be to not have an amplified western PNA ridge. If that sort of look verified as shown on the EPS it might be an active clipper/hybrid pattern versus the true dreaded CAD when the PNA ridging becomes more amplified and east based. Also that sort of pattern would be good for the lake effect belts. I've read some LR gurus wondering if EPS is rushing pattern change some, but it's done pretty well thus far this season. Edit: As posted above, that look would more likely favor the east coast for larger synoptic systems but still no signs of a -NAO. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

The tight baroclinic zone over the region indicates potential for strong low and mid level f-gen and associated banding. Don't need a wrapped up system to get good precip amounts in cold sector with that as the mid December event along I-70 corridor showed, along with some of the events in recent winters (Feb 8-9 2018 comes to mind up here). Also, there's good agreement in strong upper jet divergence for large scale ascent. There's lots of ways this could go and it could certainly be a minimal event, but also counter reasons why it could work out. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Although it's not registering as a -EPO on the teleconnection charts because of the strong negative height anomalies along the Pac NW coast, the mid week ridge spike over Alaska due to a deep ULL over the Bering Sea functions as a temporary -EPO to dislodge that very cold air and send it southeastward. Then it looks like another ridge spike over Alaska Friday into Saturday that's trended stronger on the EPS vs yesterday.