yoda

True, but there will already be DPs in the 50s and southerly winds feeding in the warm air. Its not a high threat, but we could still see a few isolated reports

12z NAM soundings still signal the threat for a few STWs and perhaps a TW or two tomorrow late morning into very early afternoon

From the Jan Disco thread on page 21

Good to see you all getting some more decent snows... just have it include us some more next time

Good luck down there all... Hope you get some decent snows

This thread will have a drought of posts

Tornado warning up by RIC metro

Meteocentre goes out to 144... but precipitation and h5 only goes out to 72

00z UKIE at 96 is basically sitting over OBX... then moves slowly away to the east at 120 as it is weakening

Maria puts on the brakes at 120 and by 132 is moving NE as its being kicked out to sea... but Outer Banks definitely were hit this run

Meanwhile... 00z GFS is getting quite close to OBX at 108...

Doesn't look like it... 96 to 120 Maria is moving due north and 144 says goodbye... so no westward movement from 12z EURO

We can take a good chuckle at the 12z GGEM which decides this run to make landfall near OBX

It shouldn't be aggravating at all... Maria isn't coming to visit the US. There is nothing to bring it that far west, and just about all reliable models recurve Maria a good 300 miles out to sea

And back NE it goes at 156

lol Maria is already moving NE by 96

12z EURO - 192 still sitting off the MA coast by 200 miles or so... not a large amount of movement between 168 and 192.. gets booted NE by the trough and out toward Nova Scotia at 216

lol The 12z GGEM brings Maria into the Norfolk/Hampton Roads area at 144

From the 11pm Hurricane Maria disco from NHC... a quick factoid:

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...100 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...OUTER EYEWALL OF MARIA LASHING ST. CROIX... A sustained wind of 90 mph (144 km/h) with a wind gust to 127 mph (204 km/h) was recently reported in the western portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 65.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake

(sorry for the political stuff... please disregard and read just the tweets about whats going on in Dominica)

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass from northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to 0000 UTC. The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity. Raw objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the center moved over land. Based on these data, the initial wind speed was increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that intensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight weakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane passed over Dominica. Since the center has moved over land, the aircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye. The aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be able to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of Dominica. Maria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear and over warm water during the next couple of days. Given these favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are possible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles. Land interaction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some gradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic in 3 to 4 days. Maria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt. A weak ridge located over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the center of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5. The track guidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the NHC track forecast through 72 hours. At days 4 and 5, the global model envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast was adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP correct consensus and ECMWF model. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane during the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect for many of these islands. 2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. 4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall are expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.5N 61.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 17.9N 65.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 18.7N 66.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 20.5N 69.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 22.8N 71.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 25.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...EYE OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING OVER DOMINICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 61.4W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM NW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF ST. CROIX MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 935 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA AS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Radar data from Martinique and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports indicate that Maria made landfall on Dominica around 915 PM AST (0115 UTC) with estimated winds of 160 MPH (260 KM/H). The next update will be the 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC) complete advisory package. SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown