yoda

LWX with a great writeup this morning about today's threat NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The key players on the synoptic map early this morning are a warm front arcing west-to-east across southern Pennsylvania. Off to the west, GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a potent cyclone spinning over central Illinois. The attendant cold front moving through central Indiana and western Kentucky features relatively cold cloud tops and plenty of lightning activity. This system is set to embark on the Mid-Atlantic region later this evening and into the night. Expect locally heavy downpours, gusty to possibly damaging caliber winds, an isolated tornado, and a marked cool down into the following day. Relatively benign weather is being observed at 07Z with a few high clouds streaming overhead. Otherwise, quiet conditions are anticipated through the early afternoon. Mild southerly flow is supporting above average temperatures with mid 50s to low 60s being rather widespread. Throughout the day, continued warm advection and rising heights will allow highs to soar into the mid/upper 70s. With 850-mb temperatures progged to reach 15C, a couple of low 80s readings are not out of the question. However, all of this warmth will disappear as a strong cold front looms upstream across the Ohio Valley. The scenario which unfolds is somewhat complicated which lends itself to some uncertainty. First, in addition to the system ejecting out of the Midwest, a second system lifting out of the southeastern U.S. will also play a role in the pattern. Energetics from the southern stream impulse are forecast to move toward southern Maryland during the late afternoon while cyclogenesis unfolds off the Carolina coast. The shortwave may spawn some showers east of I-95 in advance of the main cold front. Forecast soundings ahead of the expected frontal convection are somewhat erratic, possibly owing to the pre- frontal activity. Vertical profiles show more of a veer-to- back-to-veering wind field which is not terribly conducive to supercellular structures. However, deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots is substantial enough to keep a severe thunderstorm risk in place. This is despite the limited instability of 250 to 500 J/kg, locally higher in spots. Based on the recent high-resolution model suite, a north/south oriented line of showers and thunderstorms should form along the cold front. These will race eastward from the Shenandoah Valley toward the I-95 corridor in the 22Z-02Z window before reaching the Eastern Shore by after midnight. The main threat will be damaging winds as higher momentum air gets mixed down to the surface. Cannot rule out an isolated tornado, but such an occurrence would be brief. Heading into the night, some residual showers should linger as the shortwave passes overhead. Aside from the Alleghenies which will be in the upper 30s to low 40s, mild conditions continue as the colder air will yet to arrive.

Mentioned again... but no outlook yet due to uncertainty

Hmmm... 00z Euro suggests to me a severe threat on Friday.. Maybe even late Thursday and Saturday?

Didn't check it until just now... but SPC also mentioned us again in the Day 4-8 outlook for Thursday into Friday

Monday severe threat... SLGT risk up on Day 3

30% hatched wind... 30% hail... and 10% hatched tornado on new Day 2 from SPC

Wizards are 2-0... could be a good season

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Next week looks like it will feature an active stretch of weather, with two systems impacting the area over the course of the week. Guidance is coming into relatively good agreement that a shortwave will be situated just off to our west at the start of the period on Monday morning. This trough and its associated surface low will track toward the east through the day, ultimately impacting our forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday night. A period of rain appears likely across the area, and a few thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out as well, but low-level moisture and related instability appear to be lacking somewhat with this system. If instability were to be greater than currently modeled, there could be a conditional threat for some stronger storms given the impressive wind field, but that currently looks like an unlikely outcome. That system will progress off to our north and east on Tuesday, and brisk northwesterly winds will filter into the area in its wake. Upslope showers may accompany the northwesterly winds along the Allegheny Front, but elsewhere there should be a drying trend over the course of the day. Winds may gust to upwards of 30 mph. Wednesday looks like a quiet day as a narrow upper level ridge builds overhead between the two systems of interest. The second system of interest will move into the area on Thursday. While there`s still a decent amount of spread with respect to the finer scale details, the general evolution on the synoptic scale is for a potent mid-upper level trough to approach from the west as it simultaneously takes on a negative tilt. Low pressure at the surface is expected to track into the Great Lakes, with potentially a second area of low pressure developing along the coast. While it is too early to get into the finer details, this appears to be a very dynamic system that could potentially lead to some high impact weather. We`ll continue to monitor trends with this system over the coming days.

LWX in their AFD already saying 2nd system could be a high impact event

@Eskimo Joe would approve of the 2nd system the 12z Euro shows for late Thursday into Saturday

12z Euro looks ugly for next week... severe threat next Friday lol

No one liked the 00z GFS in fantasy land?

Large Day 5 area outlooked from S NE into C TX

An ENH risk appears with 30% sig severe hatching for C MO into N AR for Sunday per SPC... SW IL in 30%

Tuesday surprise? Day 4-8 SPC OTLK mentions potential

The MassMutual commercial with Ovie and his wife and Backstrom is silly

That HP needs to be stronger

Ofc 18z GFS shows fantasy hurricane way out

Looks like it's lifted reading the newest warning... but that was a nasty surprise in the middle of the night. Plus the warning stated that there was a TDS with debris in the air shown on radar

MRGL risk for Day 3 (Saturday)

But world class goal there to tie the game at 1

Lol US men's soccer team

Violently agree... but we both know they will never see the light of day

Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...the extreme western NE Panhandle...the far western Dakotas...and southeastern into east-central MT Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 130958Z - 131600Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates around 1-1.5 inches per hour, should occur this morning. Near-blizzard conditions are also possible with strong/gusty winds. DISCUSSION...A mature mid/upper-level cyclone evident on water vapor satellite imagery will continue to eject northeastward across the central/northern High Plains this morning. A deformation band on the back side of the cyclone is beginning to fill in as low/mid-level frontogenetic forcing increases. Current expectations are that a mostly north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas over the next few hours this morning, and gradually shift northward with time. Even though low-level temperatures are marginal (generally 28-33 degrees F), strong cooling aloft associated with the upper low should support snow as the main precipitation type. Lift through the saturated dendritic-growth layer and consensus of latest high-resolution guidance both suggest snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hours will likely be common, with locally greater rates possible. Finally, near-blizzard conditions with reduced visibilities should also occur across this region, as a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds will exist on the back side of a surface low that will develop northward from NE into central SD this morning. Indeed, blizzard conditions have recently been reported at KDGW in eastern WY. ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...