yoda

How was the TD?

Lol Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 The interaction with the landmass of Cuba has significantly disrupted the circulation of Fred. In fact, radar data from Cuba, satellite images, earlier ASCAT data, and surface observations suggest that the system is likely an open trough with the strongest winds and deep convection occurring to the south of central Cuba. Fred is being maintained as a tropical depression for now, but data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters later this morning will likely confirm if it is a depression or not. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. Bands of heavy rain are now spreading across the Florida Keys. The initial motion of 295/11 kt is highly uncertain since its not clear if Fred has a center. Even though the storm has moved farther west than previously expected, the overall track forecast reasoning has not changed much. Fred is expected to turn northwestward by tonight and northward by Sunday night as the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. The new track forecast has been nudged to the west again to be in better agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Based on the new track forecast, Fred is expected to pass west of the lower Florida Keys later today and make landfall along the western Florida Panhandle or Alabama coast Monday night or early Tuesday. Although Fred is very disorganized at the moment, the global models show the circulation becoming better defined tonight or on Sunday as the cyclone moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in slightly lower wind shear conditions. The storm is expected to strengthen some during the next couple of days, but significant intensification seems unlikely as southerly shear is anticipated to increase before the system reaches the Gulf coast on Monday. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite images show an asymmetric cyclone with most of the associated convection and stronger winds on its east side while Fred moves across the Gulf of Mexico. After landfall, steady weakening is expected, and Fred is likely to dissipate by the middle of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding, across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Lower Florida Keys later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama beginning on Monday. Watches may be required for a portion of this area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 23.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 24.0N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 27.0N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.4N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 29.8N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 30.9N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 34.4N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Not much strengthening with Grace either going on per 5am disco Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 The cyclone has become a little better organized overnight, with an area of concentrated convection persisting over the center for the past several hours. The system remains compact, with the convective canopy about 100 n mi in diameter, while earlier ASCAT data revealed winds greater than 25 kt extended only about 30 n mi from its center, with peak winds of 27 kt. Despite the weaker maximum winds sampled earlier this evening, the increase in organization of such a small system has likely produced a notable increase in the surface winds near the center. In addition the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON suggest that the intensity is now somewhere between 30 and 45 kt. Based on a conservative blend of these values, it is estimated that the Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into 35-kt Tropical Storm Grace. Grace continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion of 280/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it westward for the next few days. Beyond that time, the forecast models begin to diverge in their track solutions, as they vary in the strength of the ridge. Overall, the models have trended toward a stronger, more persistent ridge to the north of the cyclone for the latter half of the forecast period, and as such the model solutions are generally showing a track that lies a bit south of the previous runs for those time periods. The official NHC forecast track is little changed through 72 h and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Beyond 72 h, the forecast track has been shifted slightly to the south, but still lies to north of the consensus model tracks. The earlier bout of wind shear that had entrained surrounding dry air into Grace appears to have abated, at least in the short term. And, global models indicate that the shear will remain low for about the next 24-36 h while the cyclone moves over increasing SSTs. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that strengthening should occur over the next day or so. Thereafter, the intensity forecast becomes somewhat complicated as the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough while possibly crossing the Greater Antilles at the same time. Slight weakening is indicated in the NHC intensity forecast as the system crosses the northern portion of the Dominican Republic early next week. Thereafter, moderate to strong northerly shear is forecast to impact Grace as the system moves into the flow on the western side of an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This shear should prevent any further strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is a little lower than a blend of the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus, as there is likely a high bias from the HWRF in these solutions. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is of lower-than-normal confidence due to the potential for a longer amount of time over the rugged terrain of the Greater Antilles than indicated, and also due to the fragile nature of the small cyclone and the possible effects of the stronger shear later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible over the British Virgin Islands on Sunday. The risk of strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.3N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 18.9N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Hello tiny Grace BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE... ...EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 55.6W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for this area later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 55.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A motion toward the west with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm is forecast to move over the Leeward Islands tonight, over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Weakening is expected early next week as the system interacts with the Greater Antilles. Grace is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

@MillvilleWx That looks great... probably spent a couple thousand for that delicious food lol

Question is, as was stated in the 5pm disco, is track. Path for now is same that Fred took, which may cause TD 7 to not intensify as much

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 547 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0543 PM HAIL 1 SSE OAKTON 38.88N 77.29W 08/13/2021 M1.75 INCH FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-153-510-600-610-683-685-132200- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0410.000000T0000Z-210813T2200Z/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD- City of Fairfax VA-Arlington VA-City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA- City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA-City of Manassas VA- City of Alexandria VA- 546 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON...FAIRFAX...AND SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...THE CITY OF FALLS CHURCH... THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK...THE CITY OF MANASSAS AND THE CITY OF ALEXANDRIA... At 545 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from College Park to near Centreville, moving east at 15 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts, particularly near Oakton, Fairfax, Reston and Vienna. Golf ball size hail and trees and power lines blown down have been reported with this storm. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Centreville, Dale City, Bethesda, Reston, Bowie, Annandale, Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Fairfax, Langley Park, Beltsville, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville and Falls Church.

DCAPE between 1300 and 1500 too...

I know... I remember him hating biker week though

I thought he would be hanging out with all the bikers

Where has he been anyway?

Yankees owned the Rangers in every playoff match up until 2011. Even with Rusty Greer, Juan Gonzales, Rafael Palmerio, and Ivan Rodriguez... couldn't get past them in the 1st round

So I'm sure the great mod banned them ofc

Who should have won the WS in 2011... and won't be making the playoffs anytime soon

This is a weather board... so it should be for weather. Political can go in OT or it's own board. The powers that be said no politics (the announcement like two months ago) and it seems many didn't listen

Lol just because I don't post there doesn't mean I don't know what's going on from others who do

I think this thread has run its course... just going to continue devolving. Make a new one @Baroclinic Zone

Cause the majority posted at a known racist board... um so yeah, there were reasons

Voldemort posted there?

Sounds like what Jonger does everyday

Uh no... Patriots - WFT tonight

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 63.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Culebra and Vieques * U.S. Virgin Islands * Dominican Republic on the south coast from Punta Palenque eastward and on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo eastward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique and Guadeloupe * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic on the north coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 63.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to pass near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late today and tonight, and be near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Some weakening is likely while the system interacts with Hispaniola on Wednesday. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

Lots of rain just SE of Pueblo BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Pueblo CO 243 AM MDT Sun Aug 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... A large portion of central and northern Pueblo County in southeastern Colorado... * Until 900 AM MDT Sunday. * At 243 AM MDT, moderate to locally heavy rain continues across the warning area. Between 3 and 5 inches of rain have already fallen from earlier shower and thunderstorm activity. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area, as rain continues through the morning hours. Flash flooding is ongoing and is expected to continue through the morning hours. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain. SOURCE...Reports of roads washed out with upwards of 4 feet of standing water, flooded underpasses, and other significant flooding from an Off-Duty National Weather Service Meteorologist, trained weather spotters, and law enforcement. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Pueblo, Blende, Avondale, Salt Creek and Pueblo Depot. This includes the following streams and drainages... Salt Creek, Chico Creek, Blue Ribbon Creek, Boggs Creek, Dry Creek, Greenhorn Creek, Wild Horse Creek, Fourmile Creek, Burnt Creek, Sixmile Creek, Edson Arroyo, Fountain Creek, Williams Creek, Thomkins Arroyo, Black Squirrel Creek, Wolf Arroyo, Saint Charles River, Tom Hollow, Haynes Creek, Arkansas River and Andy Creek.