Chrisrotary12

I'm refreshed and ready to go! Let's do this. 1-2' for anyone east of Hartford/ORH/MHT.

Looking at the levels from SFC up to 700 there's never actually a closed circulation associated with it. It has to be all convectively driven. It's just analyzing the warm front at the same pressure level as the parent low. Edit: but it sure does displace the warm conveyer belt.

Looks good to me.

Probably by the time we wake up tomorrow morning.

This.

STORM BACK ON!

Final call.

Just a guess....generally 12:1 outside of I95.

We've been tracking this storm for 10 days. So we lost it about a week ago.

Feel like you can change right up until 730p.

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if we got 12" in between bands, 18" from a good storm or 36" from a June 2015 band. That's just the nature of the big boys. Except for Feb 2013, there are always surprises and haves v have nots.

Does this mesolow off the Florida coast become our storm? Edit: probably not. Looks like it gets sucked into the warm conveyer belt.

28F cloudy. Looking good from a WV perspective. PV lifting out north of us. Northern stream diving down.

Going out on a limb - Sanford, Maine 31"

It's so odd. It's like "hey my warm conveyer belt is so strong that I'm going to deepen a low to the same pressure as the parent low. Then when we get to 40 N the parent low is like "where you going? Get back here. and captures the second low."

Those 2 lows are about to fuji southeast of the islands.

12z NAM is going to be a let down.

If that's real, this storm might not be epic here and congrats Maine.

Checking out the pieces of energy on water vapor across the CONUS. We seem to be on track. That's always comforting.

I don't know about you all but I've officially entered the period of time before a big storm where I'm just consistently asking myself "can it really happen?".

It's really too bad that its not going to snow west of Worcester except for Wiz and Kevin.

Taking in to account all of the various guidance; I thought the 00z Euro run seemed very logical from a meteorological perspective. We've seen countless times in the past that its tough to slow down a freight train and that the capture and "stall" typically occurs a little north of where expected. i.e. not south of MVY like the NAM, but east of the Cape like the Euro. If one were to take the Euro 10:1 snowfall map and increase it by 20-30% across eastern and western areas. And by 40-50% in the central areas where one thinks the death band sets up. That would be a reasonable forecast. Basically 20"+ in the east and central. 10-20 in central-west and dropping off from there.

I agree. We might not see it in the modeling, but in reality.

Yeah. It's really too bad the Euro isn't similar. Shucks.

I'm comfortable with my map for now. I'm glad I used the + sign.