Chrisrotary12

I don't even have the energy to be upset about this winter. If it's going to suck. Let's just move on to Spring shall we. I'm determined to get back into fishing. Been about a decade since I really went. So the quicker spring can get here, that'd get me closer to that.

The change in that northern stream vort overnight was impressive. Clicking through the 00z Euro I legit muttered "What the hell was that?" She gone!

Looks pretty much the same to me.

12z EPS not coming northwest is disappointing.

Best I can tell quickly, the biggest change the Euro made was the handling of the 1st northern stream vort. Instead of wrapping it up on Dallas, it comes in much weaker and just floats through the midwest. Toggle 06z.72 versus 12z.66.

The Weather Channel says "No Chance"

Sure. The lead vort that comes out of Mexico is such a piece of crap that it barely has an impact.

Impressive change with respect to the Northern Stream vort. But we're going to need a Boxing Day style comeback on this one.

Looks like 18z EPS was an aberration. Pretty good model agreement from overnight runs. Two of the pieces of energy are still over the northern Pacific south of Alaska if I follow them backwards correctly. There may still be hope.........

I was just beginning to make plans for Superbowl Sunday.........have to try to remember: one is an aberration, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. Lets wake up tomorrow with the EPS looking this good.

12z GFS is exit stage right with the Day 4 & Day 11 system. We on to spring yet?

00z EPS looked great. 06z EPS was a let down. Really wish something besides the UKMET & 00z GFS would jump on board. Is everything onshore with 12z tomorrow's soundings?

That potent northern stream diving in, but not turning north until Bermuda is disappointing.

Can always adjust up as needed.

I think this is more what I was thinking when I made my statement. And to help keep us on topic. I don't hate the ensemble look either. At least this time we're not rooting for it to stay underneath us. Much prefer wishing for a NW trend than praying for it to trend southeast.

Can that northern stud just scoop up all of the others ones?

Do people (especially those here on the board) still watch the news for weather forecasts?

I mean, good luck trying to figure this out.

We're on to spring?

I don't know diddly about the data assimilation mechanics of the individual modeling systems, but when the system was over the eastern Pacific and really only being sampled by satellite, we had pretty good agreement. (look at 00z Tue runs for example). But as soon as the system came onshore of the west coast and presumably was sampled by the radiosonde network, the goal posts between the individual modeling systems seem to be widening. Definitely from an OP perspective and a bit from an ensemble perspective. The GEPS is way west compared to EPS and GEFS (00z suite).

It's impressive to me how the level of model agreement (at least in the OPs) is decreasing with time.

EPS definitely ticked north with the ULL.

Is it too early to talk about the D10 system from last nights 00z GFS?

Storm may be 6 days out and there are a dozen things to figure out, but it's actually on approach to the west coast now.

I wonder if we can go a whole winter with the primary storm track being NM -> MN -> through NE. Brick wall at the Canadian border.