wncsnow

GaWx I appreciate your efforts and research but the writing is on the wall. Spring peepers are already singing in WNC and February has just started. They know winter is done. Sure it will get cold again for brief stretches but any prolonged winter pattern with multiple snow threats is a pipe dream. The closer we get to the pattern change the models will continue to moderate and push it back until its a cold front with a couple below average days before it warms up and rains again. 

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Where did everybody go? 

It's been 750 or more days since most of us has been able to enjoy accumulating snow. The next 10 days is going to be spring like. Most people are in the prove it stage with the possible "good" pattern. We were told it was game on from January 15th on. Here we are on Feb 1 with no snow for most of the region and none in sight for at least 2 weeks. 

It's also rained over 10 inches for most of the area that past month. 

Does anyone really think non mountain areas are going to score in late Feb or March? I put the realistic odds at <20% 

6 minutes ago, Wow said:

boy i feel bad for the younger generations.. but I can remember Dec 2000 and March 2001 and empathize a little. Winter in the south is a bitch.

Indeed it is but this is Wal Mart Karen level bitch. Most cities are going to break their all time snow droughts if we don't pull out a late February or March miracle. 

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Wrong. The 12Z EPS 360 (last map of the run) is colder in the SE than the 12Z GEFS 360 and the 18Z GEFS 354 at both 2 meters and 850 mb.

Let's see if we can enjoy a week of below average 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Consistent

But not as cold as the GEFS right?

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The ensemble means remain in agreement on the major pattern change at H5 to start ~Feb 13, when the +PNA first rapidly intensifies and which is consistent with what the extended models started showing over 3 weeks ago. So, as we see it getting closer with little or no can kicking, confidence increases. Within a few days, the SE gets cold on the models.

 For example from the 12Z GEFS: how often do SE 850s this cold show on day 16 of the GEFS?

 

 Now note on the 12Z GEFS map below the green area well to our WSW. That represents the El Niño supported moist subtropical jet. Combined with the cold transporting +PNA (cold aided by -AO/-NAO), we’d have a classic split flow, which is the most favorable pattern to induce the possibility of a GOM Miller A based major SE winter storm.

 Extended models have been suggesting the first enhanced chance for one of these ~Feb 18-19 based on examining the last few days of runs’ individual members’ SLPs. That green area is moving generally toward the E during the last frames. So, it’s possible that it would get to the SE then and allow the moist flow to overrun the SE cold.

 WSW to SW H5 flow over the SE is usually needed for a big widespread storm. We can get that kind of flow from that ST jet, which has WSW H5 flow, moving E. But the +PNA can’t be too overpowering or else H5 flow might remain W or WNW over the SE and thus be dry. And the cold can’t modify too much once the moist flow arrives or it could be too warm. Always the delicate balance/timing. But at least there’s an opportunity being strongly hinted during favorable Nino climo of mid to late Feb.

How does the EPS Look

Remember when the pattern change was supposed to be February 10-12? Now its February 16-18. Sound familiar?

That last picture looks so much like hwy 80 in McDowell its crazy. 

I haven't seen it rain this hard from a Clipper in a long time. 

It's a 3K and up winter for sure. Places below that like Spruce Pine, Asheville, Black Mtn, Waynesville, etc. Have all barely got any snow all winter. 

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Crazy how only snow gets affected by downsloping. 

Isn't it wild 

Heavy rain. Didn't expect much 

Congrats Monroe?

90% of this is rain unless you are above 4k 

New ICON is 40s and rain. Next.

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Is it just me or is it every time DT has called for a significant winter storm being likely etc... it hasn't happened. Lol

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk


 

He sees one good model run and says the big one is coming. The next run its gone. I think he is as snow hungry as the rest of us and its driving him nuts. 

All of the models are too warm for most of us except maybe Mt Mitchell.  This winter continues to suck 

We haven't dropped below freezing much the past week. Grass is getting green. 

Euro has a weaker low that's more strung out.  Never gets moisture north of SC. 

UK only goes to 144 but it looked promising 

Canadian is warmer but shows a massive low too

Let this happen and I will be positive the rest of the year

Higher elevations get crushed with that slow moving low. Soo close to a big snow for foothills too..

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS is even warmer this run for the 4th-5th. 

The mountains do switch to snow this run.