wncsnow

Nothing screams February 10 like 70° at 11:30 a.m. 

Canadian is rain too in case anyone was wondering 

About time to give up on this time period. I can only see it trending warmer and north with flooding/severe the main threats 

GFS is another perfect track miller A rainstorm 

It's the ICON but it looks much better than the GFS or Euro (will probably be squashed)

7 minutes ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

NGL, I am actually interested in finding out how many El Nino's in history compare to how bad this one has been overall lol.

1998 was similar in some ways

You can always tell when things look bad. No GaWx or Met1985 posts

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks 

Yep. Most folks in the foothills and western piedmont are about a month away from their longest snowless streak ever. 

33 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Oh well. It's not over yet, but the models are definitely not trending in our favor. It looks like another almost zero winter for Asheville. I am sure higher elevations will get some more. Oh well, it is what it is.

I am very happy for the rain. I have a well. I'll take rain over drought. Spring and Summer are coming. Nothing wrong with fishing and beach trips. Maybe I will be surprised, but if not, we will try it again next Winter and hope for a better result.

Looks like you are at the acceptance stage. I'm about there too. Truth is unless you are above 3k and close to the TN border you just aren't going to see much snow going forward. 

What a disaster of overnight runs. At this point it might not get truly cold for the rest of the month. Only thing you can bet on is lots of rain. Good for fishing at least. The NAO and Pacific have both flipped in a few days to what we don't want. 

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

The pacific pattern of the past few years will certainly be one worth studying 

All this blocking looks to be a mirage or short lived. Cue the Masters music 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hopefully that was a fluke run. Good thing is, the Euro and now CMC are colder than the GFS.

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The CMC also waffles hundreds of miles north this run with the moisture and was less cold than previous runs. 

Look at all this rain on the GFS.. if only it could get cold again 

Canadian went from suppressed to cold rain for a lot of us, GFS went from a good look to a torch. Probably not wise to bet against this persistent SE Ridge 

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Don't look at the CMC. haha. 0z Canadian has a Big Winter Storm for Northern NC/VA

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It's super borderline for NC but a lot better than the GFS 

1 minute ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

GFS has the right idea with the cold rain. Until I see it show a snowstorm within current range (< 200 hours) for more than 1 run, it is safe to assume it is right with this look. Snow really seems to be getting more difficult to produce south of DC now days and even they struggle. 

It's not even a cold rain TBH lol

It rains to NYC

And we're back

Not much run to run difference eh? 

I should have went to bed early. Totally different than 18Z. 

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

GFS looks like it might be too amped/warm, let's see where it goes. 

 

The ICON looked better but only goes to 180. 

GFS looks a mess to be honest. No cold air around and the timing of the system keeps moving up

GFS looks like it might be too amped/warm, let's see where it goes. 

The ICON looked better but only goes to 180. 

19 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I hardly ever hear the word verbatim used in normal everyday conversation. But we weather geeks sure do like to throw it around with impunity. 

Let me offer a few alternatives for those wanting to change it up from time to time:

”If the model output were to come to fruition…”

”If the model output were to become reality…”

”Taken literally…”

”If the model output were to be unembellished…”

”If reality were undeviating from the model prediction…”

Or if you really want to win friends and influence people, you can go with:

”Taken punctiliously…”

Carry on and let it snow.

Spoken like a true calculus teacher 

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Taken verbatim, solid 8-10" between Asheville and Hickory

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That's me. I do think areas outlined this run are favored(climo) 

Doesn't get much closer than that for most of NC for an area wide snow.