wncsnow

DC about to get shafted tonight. Most short range is 1 to 2 max instead of 3 or 4+. Well see which is right. 

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

That was one of the worst heartbreakers for sure.

The worst heartbreaker here(among many) was March 1, 2009 Upper Level Low. We got a dusting and literally 15 miles west and 20 miles east had 4 inches or more. It was too warm for the first part of the storm then the ULL went just too far south and we missed the deform band. That led to downsloping wind and flurries while Shelby-Hickory got hammered. 

Another reason this was painful was because the previous 2 winters were bad. Not as bad as these last 2 though. 

March 93 was epic here but l was only 5. I do remember it, mostly the power being out for a week or more and the thundersnow (which I haven't seen since). The Christmas snow of 2010 has a special place in my heart even though it was only 8 inches here. It was the first and last time I have seen a legitimate snowstorm on Christmas Day and one of the few times I was home for the holidays back in those days. Of course it was so poorly modeled and was nothing 2 days out. Plus it was one of the last Christmases with my mom. It was a special day. 

1 hour ago, Tullioz said:

Yeah, anyone under the age of 35 either wasn't born yet or doesn't remember the winter of 1993 and the years leading up to that winter. I did measure an inch of snow on February 26, 1993, but prior to that, I had gone more than three years without seeing accumulating snow in Rockingham County. As bad as this current streak of snowless winters has been, the early 1990s were worse in this part of NC. 

I member when we had to walk uphill both ways to school in the snow! Darn millennials. 

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Im in the camp that would perform ritualistic dances or maybe even an animal sacrifice for it to snow again 

Well I accidentally ran over a squirrel today so maybe we just need Eyewall to do a ritualistic dance at Carter Finley Stadium and we will be good?

52 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m gonna be that guy…. Torch baby torch! Let’s knock out pollen season efficiently and get to that beautiful time of year on steamy days when you’re watching 30k ft towers break the cap in the distance and fall asleep to those long rumbles of thunder. 

Trout are starting to move around. The White bass and Walleye are spawning from Lake James in the Catawba. Days are getting longer, the air is starting to get that fresh feel of spring. The older I get the more I dislike winter, especially if it isn't going to snow. All winter is anymore is a breeding ground for sickness. My 2 kids cant stay healthy more than a few weeks. 

1 hour ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

At this point I'm rooting for the solutions that are showing a dry(drier) weekend as opposed to the cold and wet ones. I'm over it.

Bring on spring. 

Unless we get a miracle this weekend, February is toast. NOVA and DMV likely to get 2 or 3 more inches though. They are one of the few places on the east coast that aren't incredibly far behind seasonal norms.

Maybe I'm crazy but I still think those in NE NC especially and VA could see an inch or two out of this. 

UK gave most of Virginia a decent snow this run

 More moisture in NC but rain

Short range looks pretty decent for border counties tonight. Might even get a dusting in the valley (Asheville)

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Looking at the UK- I think the Euro might have a little snow for eastern areas this run. (tidewater VA especially)

Yep 

Euro is trying but the wave is too weak and progressive 

4 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Looking under the hood, our ridge out west starts to look better on the GEFS but right as it starts to get established and begins letting the cold air dump east, it’s severed in half by a rapidly developing west coast trough. Just another example in the long list of examples where the pacific keeps the cold from the long range from entering the short range.

And the impressive blocking is not going to happen now. The pattern is fast and controlled by the Pacific 

Looking at the UK- I think the Euro might have a little snow for eastern areas this run. (tidewater VA especially)

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight 

He is generally always pessimistic about winter weather and cold and it has served him well for the mot part. 

Tennessee must be living right 

9 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things:

1) SER becomes semi-permanent 

2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate 

Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels 

The SER has ruined any small chance of snow this winter. Even with this current system. 

Amazing how a perfect pattern progged by ensembles and Weeklies can come completely undone in a few days. We are now looking at a warm last week of February due to no -NAO and the PNA is about to flip to- while the MJO is not wanting to leave phase 7. 

It's about time to cue up the we need a March 93 miracle posts..

Modeling has gotten worse than ever. Just look at the differences in 48 hours. F

24 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Gosh, now Tennessee is about to pull a rabbit out of the hat again. I swear I've never seen that region get as much snow as they've got the last couple years. Just unreal, the rich get richer.

It does look like parts TN will get a couple inches out of this. Thanks northern stream. 

Unless the models shift drastically, this threat is about done for. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Out of 16 runs, today’s Euro Weeklies for 2/26-3/4 came in by far the warmest yet for that week!

With as accurate as the Weeklies have been,  now I expect cold and snowy

I just don't know what it will take for us to get a snowstorm.