wncsnow

Really nasty day

Rain picking up in Asheville. 38

Have to say, the Euro and GFS did pretty dreadful for this system. Both were too far south with the cold and precip. Even 2 days ago both has 1 to 3 inches of snow for most of us. The NAM has been much closer to reality. It gets trashed all the time but its whipped the globals on many occasions here. 

3 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

You must not work with UT fans if you are just now starting to hate that state haha

Almost as bad as Clemson 

Got some drizzle in West Asheville. 

Looking ahead.. the GFS tries to give us a little love on Friday but its drying up quickly in our leeside screw zone

Good to see us forgotten foothills folks pinned and at the top of the page! 

Just made my drive from Marion to Asheville. Not even a flurry and you can clearly see the top of the black mountain range. They aren't even getting snow at 6k. 

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

SNOW IS FALLING

That band couldn't produce here. It's up to 40 here and the ceiling has raised. I think our chances of flurries are gone 

Just now, BhamParker said:

Probably half an inch up here in Gatlinburg this AM. It is mixing with freezing rain and sleet at times. This afternoon seems to be when the big show gets started with higher rates and all snow. I’m thinking we have a a pretty high ceiling. I am hoping for 5+. Very pretty this morning.


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I thought you would have 3 or more by now honestly. You can never underestimate the power of a warm nose. 

Looking at the Tennessee Valley thread, looks like a lot have not got what they were forecasting, especially on the southern edge and in northern MS. Nashville and northern areas have done well. 

6 minutes ago, westmc9th said:

I appreciate the realness @wncsnow! Just know that I'll always consider Marion/McDowell County part of the mountains. You don't have to be on the TN border or above 4000' ft to count. I'm still midly interested in the weekend event. I've accepted this one was unlikely to amount to much...

The mountain thread used to be called the mountains and foothills thread. It should still be that way IMO but I'm fine with having this thread too. 

5 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Precip looks plentiful to the west… all the way back to Dallas


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It's still going to mostly miss us to the northwest. We need the heavier rates to bring the cold air down otherwise it will be drizzle or light rain and 40. 

4 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

Update: It's now 26.5 with a dp of 20.3. The low level atmosphere is primed here for a classic southern Appalachian snowstorm. Won't be long now... I hope.

This is not a classic southern Appalachian snowstorm in the least

Total for both systems. After all the rain, we can't buy any moisture with the cold 

Just look at this BS for the late week system. 

Worst thing is, most models are showing a similar setup on Thursday night/ Friday. A dying system giving TN another good snow and nothing east of the Apps. 

Really over the last 5 to 10 years , a lot of our snows have been big gulf storms like February, 2014, January 2016, and December 2018 which were all 8-10 plus inch storms here . We really don't get those smaller 2-4 inch events anymore. I remember when I was younger we got 2 or 3 of those smaller events almost every winter. 

East TN could get 10-12 inches of snow out of this. Just not our type of system. We need a true gulf tap and gulf low with a 50/50 low and strong HP in NE. 

HRRR 

RAP

Hi Res NAM 

I can't find any short range models with snow for foothills and most mountain locations. This one could be a big bust even for those winter storm warning counties. 

36.5 here. Clouds getting thicker. Most models don't have it going below freezing until Tuesday evening now for us downslopers

@buckeyefan1 can we get this thread pinned too?