wncsnow

Who's ready for spring?

I wish the Friday threat was looking better. I hope we don't go into February with a shutout here but it's looking more likely every day. 

It's now been 731 days since our last snowstorm. We are getting close to our biggest streak since I have lived here. 

Hi Res NAM = not even close

3 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Maybe the short range models come around today.  

So far, no. Some mixing and rain showing up on the high res models. That's why some totals are being cut in the SW mountains 

17 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Winters do not happen anymore in NC outside the mountains. Crazy how quick climate change has impacted winters here. Good snow storms went from uncommon to nearly impossible in the last 10 years. 

They barely happen in the mountains 

Models have backed off for most even the 6Z euro. Looks like a non event for Asheville east 

3 minutes ago, AshVegas said:

Over the mountain special...

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk
 

Not looking great for downtown Asheville. Haywood and points west look fine for 2-4. Madison too closer to the border. Downtown maybe .5 to an inch if lucky. Probably a dusting in McDowell and most of the foothills. Of course it could change some tomorrow but time is running out 

GFS is a bit north

Hi Res NAM didn't come south at all really 

We may have seen the south shift stop on the globals and it will hopefully continue on high res short range models 

18Z Mean is a little north and less precip than 12 Z 

Subtle changes with the Euro. Slightly warmer, slightly less precip 

That run also had lighter rates except for smokies. A lot of times these overrunning fingers of precip can overperform model qpf expectations. In 2021 we had a setup that played down a quick inch or 2 when they didn't expect it. 

Most of us need it to trend another 50 miles south with the best forcing. 

It's not as good as 12Z for most but still gives the majority of us some snow 

Happy Hour hasn't been so happy so far. Hopefully the GFS will hold 

27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The NAM is not interested at all. In fact its more north than previous runs. 

It doesn't even give east TN much. It's up in Kentucky and mid TN

The NAM is not interested at all. In fact its more north than previous runs. 

4 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

EPS with a nice uptick at 12z. Haywood west looks like a solid 3-5”. Let’s get the Nam on board and reel this thing in!

Post it my friend 

RGEM trended north slightly 

NAM and HRRR would be too far north 

Just needs another 50 to 75 miles south to really give WNC a good hit

Euro giving us the finger too